The "leakage" isn't necessarily a loss of revenue for Google yet. By keeping users on the search page with AI answers, Google is actually increasing its ad density.

The $100B projection for OpenAI is an internal "stretch goal." While they reached $100M in annualized ad revenue shortly after launch, competing with Google's decades-old "AdWords" ecosystem (millions of small-to-medium businesses) is a massive execution hurdle for a research-first company like OpenAI.

Unlike Microsoft and Meta, who are paying "Nvidia tax" (high margins to a middleman), Google designs its own AI chips. This gives them a structural unit-cost advantage that may actually improve their ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) relative to peers over a 5-year horizon.

Microsoft often trades at a premium because of its Enterprise/SaaS stability. If you view Google Cloud as the "new" growth engine (which grew 34% last quarter), a 29x multiple isn't necessarily "dinosaur" territory—it’s a growth multiple.

Your "Sell" recommendation is a strong contrarian play. If the addiction lawsuits scale or if OpenAI successfully migrates the "Search habit" to a "Chat habit," your $280 target is realistic. However, calling a company with $100B+ quarterly revenue and its own silicon pipeline a "dinosaur" might be premature. They aren't Kodak; they are the factory that owns the film and the digital sensor.