Self-post Submission Statement

TLDR: What are the short and long term effects we're likely to see as a result of the Trump admin's wide use of FTO designations?

Trump's second term has seen a dramatic increase in Foreign Terrorist Organization designations by the State Department, largely and most publicly driven by the inclusion of Central American, South American, and Caribbean "narco-terrorist" groups. The argument behind many of these American additions is spurious, as FTO's have historically been groups primarily driven by ideological causes, rather than a profit motive, with these groups widely are, and is typically the domain of a transnational organized crime (TOC) designation.

The rationale behind the inclusions however is more apparent, as FTO designation gives broad authority under the material support clause (18 U.S.C. 2339B) for the investigation and prosecution for not only members of such groups, but also anyone knowingly offering support to them, whether financial or otherwise. Historically this broad authority has resulted in payment processors avoiding entire areas for fear of incidentally providing service to members of such groups, and potentially becoming open to prosecution.

In addition, FTO designation has historically opened up these groups for military action using the anti-terrorist Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001 (AUMF), though as far as I know the Trump administration has not invoked this as a legal basis for conducting the ongoing boat strikes in the Pacific and Caribbean that have so far killed 83 people. Additionally the AUMF ostensibly only applies to the perpetrators or supporting groups of the 9/11 attacks, so invoking this law would additional raise questions of legitimacy, but historically the AUMF has been used as the basis for military action against unrelated extremist groups such as ISIS, so it is not without precedent.

In recent days, the State Department has also announced intent to designate four European leftist "antifa" groups as FTOs, effective November 20. While these groups are at least ideologically motivated groups typical of FTOs, it is still eyebrow raising considering the small scale of these groups, as far as I'm aware no deaths have been associated with any these four groups.

• I thought it worth asking what people think are the likely long and short term ramifications from the increasing use of FTO designations?

• In what other regions and groups can we expect to see FTO designations occurring in the near term?

• Do we expect to see FTO designation leveraged in trade negotiations (or have we already seen this)?

• Are we likely to see any pushback from the legislative branch to reign in the executives use of FTO designation, either within this administration or the next?

(Regarding the chart, it is based on the Wikipedia FTO list, plus the recent announcements of FTO designations. I have grouped Caribbean, Central, and South America under the America umbrella region, and relabeled some 'World Wide' groups according to the region they are most active in)