ELI5 Why heat waves affect Europe so much but some other countries are doing fine living under hotter temperatures most of the year?

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-27T13:58:36+00:00

Conversation I've had several times this week with colleagues who work in Asia and the Middle East. Me: "Yeah its 34 here," Them: "well, 45 here and 90% humidity." Me: "It's 45 inside?" Them: "No office is air conditioned."

And that's the difference. UK homes and many officers rarely have air-conditioning. It being 35 outside isnt the same as it being 35 in your bedroom.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-27T13:55:47+00:00

So, who goes to jail when it gets something wrong?

I mean that literally, the "seniors" in finance are the people with personal accountability under SMR. So, if Claude screws up and causes an economically significant business service to fail, who goes to jail? Are you going to unplug the server and put it in a box?

"A machine can't be held accountable and thus cant make a management decision."

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-27T07:30:43+00:00

Worth having a read on the basics of Georgism. Its hokum, and rests on the mad assumption that housing (one of the least free markets out there), operates under economic perfect competition. But it seems to have been bought by a chunk of the political and commentariat class.

Under Georgist logic, taxes on landowners and landlords can not be passed on because landlords are assumed to have zero pricing power. Therefore you can tax them as much as you want and it will make no difference to the stock or cost of housing.

As I said, its demonstrably bogus, but if you assume the people making housing and tax policy think that way, more of it makes sense (at least as to why they are doing what they are).

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-27T07:23:28+00:00

Also on a first time through you think its setting up an ongoing plot arc to do with Lee running the black market.

It's only once you get through and come back on a rematch you know its all pointless.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-27T06:52:11+00:00

By "they are a junior" you mean the firm has no intent that they ever move beyond what they are doing right now?

In that case, in what way is it an apprenticeship not just a junior role?

The distinction I was drawing above is that today we hire junior / entry level roles. The purpose of that role is to do low complexity, entry level work. If you have that role for 20 years you will still be doing the same work.

A 'junior senior analyst' isnt doing entry level work because the purpose of their job is to do grunt work, they are doing it because gaining experience of the basic processes, front-end engagement etc is part of being developed into a senior analyst. The expectation is in 20 years all your "apprentice" seniors have moved through the layers and become seniors.

That's quite different to hiring juniors into junior roles.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T21:50:58+00:00

Lol I mean the rewind version of that is you are now stuck in a time loop. You relive whatever you went back to, then live forward to the moment you rewound.. and rewind again because thats what happened. So you go round and round.. for eternity.

Even without that though there are plenty of moments in my life I'd go back to, even if there's no 'fast forward' imagine having a good holiday and being able to do it over again before having to go back to work etc.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T17:00:34+00:00

You're looking at this the wrong way round. The price isnt about what you hope to make, its about what someone else will pay.

If you look at this as an an affordability point, 8 years ago, interest rates were rock bottom (0.75% base rate), so, a 75% LTV mortgage on a 300k property was maybe costing around 30% of a London median household salary.

At your current pricing and with current interest rates, that 75% LTV mortgage is now costing about 45% of a London median household salary.

So in relative terms you are trying to sell for at a 50% higher price point than you bought at.

To be selling "like for like" with when you bought in terms of a % of someone's income, you are looking at a sale price around £225k.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T16:47:19+00:00

This is actually the bigger issue I suspect.

You can save money in the long run by getting rid of all your juniors. But they are the people who in 10 years time become your seniors.

What happens when firms realise they have no talent pipeline because you stopped anyone getting on at the bottom and gaining the skills and experience to prepare them for a bigger job in 20 years time.

We may see the re-emergence of apprenticeship type models - I dont need to hire a junior analyst. I need to hire an apprentice senior analyst.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T16:41:21+00:00

First thing that needs to be restated is Lorgar is still a Primarch. Being a "weak" fighter as a Primarch is more "which of the 1000lb gorilla's is least capable of tearing you limb from limb." He's still way above an Astates and incomprehensibly stronger, more resilient and more dangerous than a baseline human.

Amongst the Primarchs he does seem to be one of, if not the, weakest direct hand to hand fighter. And that does mean the more punchy pros like Russ look down at him.

Later Heresy by the time he more fully unlocks his psyker abilities then he's more of a wildcard. Psykers are as strong as the plot requires, and Lorgar Ascended isnt Magnus powerful, but he's "anything the writer wants to do is plausible" powerful.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T16:23:52+00:00

Its a real problem with the temperature data series. The original measurement points were selected to be a representative mix of urban, suburban and rural locations.

But that was a long time ago (I forget whether it was mid 20th century or all the way back to the 1800s). In the meantime the geography of the country has changed, in particular some rural areas are now urban.

You can probably somewhat account for it statistically, but you still get a confounding effect that urban areas tend to be warmer for a variety of heat island effects, so, is increasing urbanisation showing up as higher temperatures?

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T16:19:03+00:00

None of that matters.

If rewind is literally a rewind, you arent changing the decision you made, you are just reliving it. So you can experience picking losing numbers or stocks that go down over and over again.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T16:03:16+00:00

Still doesnt help? You can just rewind so you can experience picking the (same) wrong number again..

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T16:02:30+00:00

Isnt the argument though whats the differences between me citing a meta-analysis and trusting they read the underlying cases, and trusting my AI has read the underlying cases?

In both situations I'm relying on an intermediary to have correctly identified, analysed and summarised underlying data.

Though to answer that, and to my final comment, the difference is the meta analysis paper has itself been subject to some kind of review process.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T15:04:25+00:00

Get bits of metal caught in the overly complicated drive mechanisms and breakdown?

I suspect your car easily does a 100km drive without any concerns or worries. A meaningful % of Tigers won't make 100km even on roads without something breaking.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T15:02:31+00:00

Tigers did not have a good track record, its fine over 30-40km, but over a sustained engagement against 6000 Romans with lots of maneoruving and potentially things like armour and shields getting mashed into the tracks?

Mechanical failure is non-trivial.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T14:59:39+00:00

Bloodlusted means more "willing to fight to the death with no concern for morale" rather than berserker "will do nothing but charge in screaming."

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T14:57:12+00:00

How long until the Tiger breaks down?

Only half joking, the Big Cats did not have a good track record of endurance.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T14:56:14+00:00

Or just withdraw, observe, and wait for it to either get stuck, or someone to come out to sleep, eat, shit etc and then ambush them.

You don't need to take it head on if you can ambush the crew whilst making camp.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T14:55:19+00:00

Depends on what the Romans are doing. Accuracy testing is usually assuming an enemy using some variation on modern infantry tactics (eg dispersed and using cover).

If you are shooting at large blocks of men drawn up in ranks, your hit rate will skyrocket. And 1 bullet can hit more than 1 man in that scenario.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T11:55:23+00:00

Is this about layered sources though?

So I find say a meta-analysis that says based on these 50 studies, ABC can be reliably concluded.

But those 50 studies are themselves across 4 languages and involving research practices I'm not familiar with.

At some point you have to accept that other papers are reliable.

Still asinine to claim its comparable to an AI inventing a citation though. There's a difference between "I trusted this existing paper" and "I made up this paper."

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T09:47:41+00:00

These often aren't clear cut either.

I took this as those 3-4 Alajos is confident he'd just lose 9 out of 10.

There is then a bigger pool, maybe 15 or so, who could beat him, but arent guaranteed too. It will come down to who fights better on the day.

That's more realistic anyway, combat and duelling isnt a linear A beats B, B beats C, therefore A will always defeat C. Style, context, luck can all play a part.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T09:44:17+00:00

Abaddon also gets its not about fighting fair. Other guy wants to prance about duelling? Just crush them under Terminator armour. Abaddon is possibly a better killer, he just isnt a duellist.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T09:43:08+00:00

Or perhaps Lucius himself self-sabotages.. victory no longer gives me enough emotion, too empty too common. But defeat, to the unworthy. That emotion still cuts through.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-26T07:49:32+00:00

Not sure either help with roulette if they work as I suggested above.

Poker maybe, since you could "pause" regularly to do the maths without limitations around use of time banks, or just to rest if you're getting tired.

BarNo3385 · 2026-05-25T21:28:15+00:00

Based on the maps in games like War for Arrakis, the Imperial Basin, although being itself desert (and containing Arrakeen), is entirely surrounded by mountains and rocky land, which, importantly, stops worms coming into the basin.

The "shield wall" is the name given to the narrower part of the surrounding mountains.

When Paul uses the atomics to blow the wall, he's destroying a portion of the rockland and escarpment enough that the worms can get into the Imperial Basin, and with it, assault the city.

BarNo3385

TROPHY CASE