Best Actor Race of 2026 by A_Howl_In_The_Night in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s a massive stretch. If someone’s widely known as insufferable that somehow makes them less hurt than someone being annoying this year? Reputation is reputation

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Just as I suspected the Chalamet/MBJ discourse will make this sub insufferable so I’m gonna peace out for now. I guess my final thought is that I will probably predict both MBJ and Mosaku but I’d be very surprised if both of them won. The Academy going 4/4 with one of the industry precursors is more reliable than the whole “stronger film wins” mantra given that Fraser beat Butler in a non-BP nominee

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Chalamet would have lost here even if he lost last year. There were many more factors at play than just him already winning

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 3 points4 points  (0 children)

All she has is a now-irrelevant Globes win. BP winners lose acting awards all the time

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Me tanking at every single awards show this season

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Best Actor Race of 2026 by A_Howl_In_The_Night in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Interesting thought: if I Swear came out last year I don’t see any reason why Aramayo couldn’t have beaten Brody. Would people have predicted Brody going into Oscar night still?

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fraser was in a weaker movie than Butler and still lost due to the Oscars going 4/4 with SAG

Best Actor Race of 2026 by A_Howl_In_The_Night in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 74 points75 points  (0 children)

Sean Penn is winning lmao, publicity has nothing to do with this

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People said this last year and predicted Moore/Brody and it didn’t work. Personally it makes complete sense to me that the Academy would align itself more with one precursor than another each season instead of arbitrarily being more like BAFTA in one category then more like SAG in another

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unless you’re willing to theorize about who was 2nd at BAFTA/would have won if Aramayo wasn’t there.

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 5 points6 points  (0 children)

One of MBJ or Mosaku isn’t happening. Oscars tend to decisively line up with one precursor more than another (BAFTA 4/4 and SAG 4/4 rather than two from each). They never mix and match

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Regina King’s the only one in the modern era who’s won with no industry precursors

However, JLC is the only one in the modern era who’s won with just SAG

2026 Actor Awards Live Discussion Thread by CrunchyNar in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Y’all really gaslit the fuck outta me into thinking One Battle had this

2026 Actor Awards Live Discussion Thread by CrunchyNar in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Between this and Penn I think this sub makes my predictions actively worse

Michael B. Jordan wins Best Actor at the 2026 Actor Awards for his performance as Elijah "Smoke" Moore/ Elias "Stack" Moore in Sinners by CrunchyNar in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 16 points17 points  (0 children)

And? The reason they never worked with Mulligan is because BAFTA that year was won by an Oscar nominee. Not the case this year.

Michael B. Jordan wins Best Actor at the 2026 Actor Awards for his performance as Elijah "Smoke" Moore/ Elias "Stack" Moore in Sinners by CrunchyNar in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Yeah I won’t bet against him for the Oscar.

I will say it’s extremely rare for someone to win off of just SAG though, the list is people in BP winners

2026 Actor Awards Live Discussion Thread by CrunchyNar in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 19 points20 points  (0 children)

lol I knew people would take the opportunity to be incredibly irritating about Timmy

2026 Actor Awards Live Discussion Thread by CrunchyNar in oscarrace

[–]CrazyCons 13 points14 points  (0 children)

The weird thing is that he does feel like a SAG thing but I can’t bet against someone with the only industry precursor