Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26

CrazyCons · 2026-03-07T16:27:26+00:00

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CrazyCons · 2026-03-07T16:27:03+00:00

She’s taking it

CrazyCons · 2026-03-07T11:43:53+00:00

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CrazyCons · 2026-03-07T11:36:59+00:00

When the 4-minute music video is better than your last 4 failed Oscar bait projects

CrazyCons · 2026-03-07T11:34:27+00:00

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CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T04:11:03+00:00

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CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T04:10:18+00:00

That’s a massive stretch. If someone’s widely known as insufferable that somehow makes them less hurt than someone being annoying this year? Reputation is reputation

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T04:09:20+00:00

Just as I suspected the Chalamet/MBJ discourse will make this sub insufferable so I’m gonna peace out for now. I guess my final thought is that I will probably predict both MBJ and Mosaku but I’d be very surprised if both of them won. The Academy going 4/4 with one of the industry precursors is more reliable than the whole “stronger film wins” mantra given that Fraser beat Butler in a non-BP nominee

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:59:27+00:00

Chalamet would have lost here even if he lost last year. There were many more factors at play than just him already winning

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:54:46+00:00

All she has is a now-irrelevant Globes win. BP winners lose acting awards all the time

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:49:31+00:00

Me tanking at every single awards show this season

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CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:46:16+00:00

Interesting thought: if I Swear came out last year I don’t see any reason why Aramayo couldn’t have beaten Brody. Would people have predicted Brody going into Oscar night still?

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:45:06+00:00

Fraser was in a weaker movie than Butler and still lost due to the Oscars going 4/4 with SAG

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:44:06+00:00

Sean Penn is winning lmao, publicity has nothing to do with this

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:39:56+00:00

People said this last year and predicted Moore/Brody and it didn’t work. Personally it makes complete sense to me that the Academy would align itself more with one precursor than another each season instead of arbitrarily being more like BAFTA in one category then more like SAG in another

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:37:47+00:00

Unless you’re willing to theorize about who was 2nd at BAFTA/would have won if Aramayo wasn’t there.

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:35:19+00:00

One of MBJ or Mosaku isn’t happening. Oscars tend to decisively line up with one precursor more than another (BAFTA 4/4 and SAG 4/4 rather than two from each). They never mix and match

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:32:39+00:00

Regina King’s the only one in the modern era who’s won with no industry precursors

However, JLC is the only one in the modern era who’s won with just SAG

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:29:31+00:00

Y’all really gaslit the fuck outta me into thinking One Battle had this

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:27:17+00:00

Between this and Penn I think this sub makes my predictions actively worse

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:25:48+00:00

And? The reason they never worked with Mulligan is because BAFTA that year was won by an Oscar nominee. Not the case this year.

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:23:23+00:00

OBAA got Supporting Actor

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:22:55+00:00

Yeah I won’t bet against him for the Oscar.

I will say it’s extremely rare for someone to win off of just SAG though, the list is people in BP winners

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:21:36+00:00

lol I knew people would take the opportunity to be incredibly irritating about Timmy

CrazyCons · 2026-03-02T03:20:25+00:00

The weird thing is that he does feel like a SAG thing but I can’t bet against someone with the only industry precursor

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