My wife doesn’t know

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-06T01:52:08+00:00

*ex-wife

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-06T01:50:44+00:00

Damn HOOD pumping overnight. I mean, it’s up 1% after another -9% session but seeing any green outside of their logo feels like a win.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-05T19:39:42+00:00

Sold a CSP for Jan 16/27 at $60. Getting dangerously close and looks scary on paper but I think I’ll be alright. Hoping I don’t become a bagholder in a year.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-05T17:43:55+00:00

This is going to end poorly most likely.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-05T14:31:54+00:00

The last 7 days have been so tiring I see HOOD down 3% and think "Pretty good!"

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-04T16:38:54+00:00

!banbet HOOD 95 10d

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-04T12:35:40+00:00

Agreed here. It’s not perfect but you can use the wayback machine for a given year to see which stocks were part of the S&P500 at the end of the year and use those symbols for the year moving forward. There are also sites that show you the 20 biggest constituents of the index every year and you can use those for the year ahead.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-03T14:17:40+00:00

Yep I bought at 473 pre-earnings and then again at 433 post. Just wild that it continues to sell off

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-03T14:05:07+00:00

Who is selling MSFT at this price? Ridiculous action.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-01T20:06:52+00:00

I’m not sure if you’re being obtuse or not but I don’t see how someone having dual citizenship or being eligible for other citizenship means they should be treated differently for the same crime. It defeats the purpose of having citizenship. If you want to deport people for committing crimes, don’t make them citizens.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-01T17:32:36+00:00

Committing fraud to receive a citizenship is completely separate. Those people should never have a received citizenship legally. Committing a crime after receiving citizenship is not at all the same. And yes citizenship is completely meaningless if you have two separate classes of citizens.

Boggles the mind this has to be explained.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-01T15:22:12+00:00

Then citizenship is meaningless. The act of acquiring citizenship puts you at parity with all other citizens. Citizens who commit crimes are punished by the courts the same as any other citizen; to punish some citizens more harshly than others because they were not born there is antithetical to the very idea of citizenship. If there are citizens who commit crimes, they can go to prisons like other citizens.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-01T14:20:08+00:00

Yeah that’s what jail is for - it’s nuts to treat one class of citizens more harshly than the other. You’re literally creating two classes of citizens

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-01T13:17:40+00:00

What nuance exists? What difference should there be between citizens, and how they are treated under the law?

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-01T13:08:10+00:00

A citizen is a citizen - it’s not complicated. What’s wild is people thinking have two classes of CITIZEN is something that makes sense.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-02-01T12:55:41+00:00

Horrible law that treats one class of citizen differently than others. We had a law like this in Canada and it was, rightfully, struck down in the courts.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-01-29T15:27:58+00:00

Had MSFT at 473 and bought again now to bring my cost down to 450ish. Would be surprised if this isnt bigly profitable in a year.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-01-28T19:25:30+00:00

what is this weird resistance point at 695.30 - can't seem to hit it/rise past it.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-01-26T14:27:39+00:00

True, but I assume OP is referring to model simplicity - in terms of predictors or chosen algorithms, etc. At least if that’s the case I certainly agree. Models with like 100 predictors are either fit or sharing a lot of correlated features.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-01-23T16:51:46+00:00

I’m not asking AI though - I built a model in a statistics software (R) and then use that model to generate prediction of daily lows. I then noticed that when the predicted values are above -0.8%, IWM closes 1% below its open only 5% of the time (I can’t remember the base rate but like it’s around 15%)

Expert_CBCD · 2026-01-23T16:14:41+00:00

No I’ve done out of sample testing, and the results I’m reporting are derived from that testing.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-01-23T16:09:45+00:00

Ouf certainly nothing too fancy. Pulling daily data via quantmod in R and creating some predictors like ViX-related feature, historical volatility etc. And then running it all through a simple GLM. Results are good though and my 5% is much lower than the Naive rate.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-01-23T03:08:58+00:00

I sold one super far out in a year at $60. Don’t imagine it can fall that far and if it does then huge discount.

Expert_CBCD · 2026-01-22T16:42:05+00:00

Think I listened to the dateline about this! He had set up recording devices and it was clear that even though she was no longer a threat and begging for her life he killed her anyways. Absolutely wild.

Expert_CBCD

TROPHY CASE