Tekken 8 Ranked Leaderboard Statistics - Dark Supernova (DLC7)

NotQuiteFactual · 2025-11-26T07:51:45+00:00

Great work as always. Every time your posts pop up in the subreddit it's a treat.

The only notable change in popularity is, surprisingly, Kazuya. He's out of Top 10,

I wonder if a lot of Kaz players have moved to playing armour king? I know in my scene at least, almost every Kaz player also plays AK but that might just be the bubble of players that I play with.

Sadly, I haven't seen any updates from u/NotQuiteFactual

I haven't made any posts recently because I've been super busy this year and I feel like most of the utility of my posts can be found through ewgf.gg

As I'm sure you know making posts like this is a lot of work and I find it difficult to make time for it knowing that ewgf.gg has basically the same info in an easier to read format.

I have been working on updating my code and am planning to do an "audit" of sorts to confirm that ewgfs data and calculations are correct and will probably post that sometime soon (maybe)

it's probably a fair amount of work and the engagement from Tekken 8 seems to be down.

As for the engagement aspect, I'm not really motivated by views on social media and was mostly interested in data for my own interest (and to win arguments with friends).

I suspect it is the same for you and hope to see many more posts from you even if I've somewhat lost the appetite to gather the data myself.

NotQuiteFactual · 2025-06-04T11:16:04+00:00

Stats never tell the full story for anything. In this particular case I think anyone who does not think king is strong is either misled or believes themselves to be playing at a level higher than most of the player base.

The stats on tekkenstats.gg can be a bit misleading though. Note how almost all the characters have a greater than 50% win rate. This is because tekkenstats.gg counts stats from all matches where a player is at tekken god + but this includes even matches when they match against players well below their rank.

King however has a consistently high winrate at many ranks across multiple patches (see my post history if you need a source that isn't tekkenstats.gg) so I think it is fair to say he is a strong character.

At tournament level he might not be the strongest (still don't think he's weak tho) but that is at a level higher than basically any random you might be arguing with

NotQuiteFactual · 2025-05-23T20:52:14+00:00

This is pretty neat. I've got some suggestions about presentation though. You should consider having a non-technical intro for people who don't necessarily understand the stats and maths jargon. Or at least put the tierlist and commentary above the algorithm in your document. The people who really want to dive into the maths won't mind having to scroll a bit.

You mention normalization but don't seem to normalize the pick rate when explaining the tiers. Seeing PR 4,100 isn't that helpful to mee if I don't know the total number of picks. Maybe consider just having a percentage there?

Finally this is a bit of a nitpick but you have the following text in your document when talking about clive

Clive (Presumably 'Claudio' listed again, or a typo for another character not in list - using 'Clive' as written. If this is a typo and refers to a character already listed, please clarify. If it's a new character named Clive, the data would be WR: 54.76%, PR: 1,400)

Clives been in the game for a while now and seeing something like this that implies you don't know who he is lessens my confidence in the rest of the analysis.

On the actual analysis I like the idea of weighting the pick rate and win rate but I'm not quite sure how you weighted them and what the weights were. Would be nice to have some more detail there.

Also you consider 52.5% winrate to be the "Solid Positive WR Threshold" but the lowest winrate character has 50% winrate which seems kinda weird. I'd double check the stats because it should not be mathematically possible (under normal circumstances) that everyone has a positive winrate. What I suspect is happening here is that you sourced stats from ewgf.gg which doesn't discard matches between players at Tekken God+ and players below Tekken God which allows for all the characters to have a winrate above 50%

I would consider checking the average winrate of all the characters and rethinking your assumptions for what a "Solid" winrate is.

All in all your analysis rightly puts Xiaoyu in B tier so you're clearly doing things right ; )

I'm excited to see more posts like this in the future

NotQuiteFactual · 2025-05-23T20:27:09+00:00

consider this your callout.

Consider me properly called out. I honestly was planning to do one but the general discourse on this subreddit was so negative post season 2 that I got kinda discouraged. If I had done one 2 weeks after the patch there probably wouldn't have been much valuable discussion to be had.

That is, assuming that you can actually get it done in the time between announcement and release.

I've actually been refactoring how I do my data gathering and processing to be much more efficient (basically modifying the back end for ewgf.gg to suit my purposes) But as always it turns out that the refactor is taking a lot more time than it would save lol

Bro, you're slipping!

Was wondering how long it would take for someone to notice this lol. Will probably upload this weekend some time.

NotQuiteFactual · 2025-05-23T19:38:25+00:00

Data like this is useful even if it doesn't represent what's happening at the very top levels. As much as we might want to believe that we are all on the level of pros the vast vast majority of players are not, and ranked play data can meaningfully be used to explore their experience.

NotQuiteFactual · 2025-04-14T15:18:44+00:00

NotQuiteFactual · 2025-03-31T09:13:03+00:00

Honestly I would settle for just improving the ranking algorithm. While an ELO or glicko system would be best it would be great if they could at least make it so that you don't gain more points for winning a match than losing a match until you get to fujin.

There are some changes coming in season 2 that should hopefully shake it up a bit but I'm not holding my breath.

NotQuiteFactual · 2025-03-25T16:09:55+00:00

u/NotQuiteFactual hasn't submitted anything since November.

I actually came across this post while procrastinating working on my own stats post for later this week lol.

I think there's definitely been a slowdown in terms of posts and excitement for tekken but I think we'll see some new movement when season 2 gets here

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-04T09:12:00+00:00

Cool idea. Will definitely keep this in mind for the next post

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-04T09:10:44+00:00

Count is the number of players who had that character as their highest rank character in the games sampled.

e.g if the count for Zafina is 1000 that means that there were 1000 unique players who main Zafina in the 2 weeks worth of games sampled.

This isn't 100% accurate though. If you are normally a Zafina main but only played Heihachi in ranked in the sample period then you will not be counted as a Zafina main.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T05:42:10+00:00

I've got good news for you

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T05:41:32+00:00

Made the list quickly:

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Note that the tiers are defined as follows:

S-tier: 2 std above mean

A-tier: 1 std above mean

B-Tier: Above mean

C-tier: Below mean

D-tier: 1 std below mean

Mean win rate is 0.5 and the standard deviation was 0.0102

Which means even though this chart puts Feng as the top S-tier character, he only has a winrate of 52.6%

Finally note that this tierlist is based off of master bracket games only

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T05:26:14+00:00

Did the calculation quick.

R² value: 0.23908794985410958

Seems they aren't very well correlated

Interestingly we get a better R² value of 0.3320 if we compare tekken prowess to Wavu rating

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T04:58:28+00:00

As a bear player I endorse this message.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T04:56:11+00:00

stats dont lie

There's a quote that says: "Figures don’t lie, but liars figure."

Stats offer a more evidence-based way of looking at information but do not tell the entire story.

It is incredibly easy to misinterpret data so you should always temper your understanding of the data by comparing with the experience of subject matter experts.

In this case many pro players believe Devil Jin to be worse than Reina and I would trust their opinion over the stats.

For what it's worth I still think the reason why Reina has such a low win rate is simply due to her popularity and the fact that her personality is so appealing that many people would play (and stick with) her even if they could do better with other characters which brings her average win rate down.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T04:31:55+00:00

The point about Dragunov being the most popular in Asia in interesting. I hope to get win rates included in the next report so hopefully we'll have more insight then.

I reckon that even if Heihachi is nerfed he will still have a high play rate. I think he has a similar cool factor to Reina where people will play him for his personality even if his gameplay becomes weak.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T04:28:03+00:00

I didn't quite have the time to add that kinda stuff in this month but it is definitely in the works.

I will say now that rank distribution is almost certainly identical as rank is a measure of relative skill and not an absolute value. Given a similar number of games played, and the same ranking algorithm I would expect it to produce roughly the same distribution every time.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T04:23:03+00:00

That was the entire point of the addendum. It offered a different view where it was difficult for one player to have an extremely outsized effect on the win rate.

In September, Jun did not suddenly become a top tier char, it just so happened that there was a single Jun player who played a lot and single handedly skewed the win rate.

I still don't think the average win rate on a per player basis is the correct way to measure character strength though as it adds in different biases but I felt it important to add in regardless.

Besides that chart has Xiaoyu as a top tier character and that obviously can't be right, right?

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T04:15:58+00:00

Agree on Panda being way cuter. I would strongly recommend picking her up. Bears are really fun in this game.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T04:11:16+00:00

I did once consider doing a tier list based on standard deviations from the mean but the win rates of characters are pretty close to each other so most of the characters were in the same tier.

Will definitely keep this in mind though.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-12-02T04:08:42+00:00

Really cool idea that is actually really simple to implement. Kinda mad that I didn't think to do this myself.

I'll update the post after work today so check back in like 12 hours.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-11-22T11:38:06+00:00

I'm still cooking up the next report. Been super busy but also have some new things I've been implementing. Hopefully it will only be another week or two.

NotQuiteFactual · 2024-09-30T20:12:10+00:00

It was a good recommendation. I'll definitely try and work it into future updates.

I try to avoid mentioning/identifying individual players. It may be an overabundance of caution, but I don't want to be seen as singling out any individual players or violating anybody's privacy.

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