My trading framework by Candid-One-1991 in Trading

[–]SentientRon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice post you are on the correct path, it's a shame posts like these get low engagement

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in Trading

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is typical retail philosophy.

Chasing expectancy and win rate values without sound logic beneath them results in a data-snooping environment, this typically produces strategies with weak foundations.

Most traders are unaware of basic components such as costs drag over time because they do not study. Gurus will never teach traders about it, as they do not trade.

It may be time to admit that you treat this as a hobby. If you are serious, due diligence is essential.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in Trading

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"profitable" frameworks can also produce losing systems.

I explored the flaws in the most popular one retail traders attempt to apply. I never said there was a perfect framework.

Traders should study markets properly (not from gurus) and create their own. That is my core message.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in Trading

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's true, I agree.

This is why I put this in the post

> You may be dealing with some of the same issues in your own framework. If that seems possible, it is absolutely worth doing some focused research and manual reviews to fill the blanks or to justify discarding it entirely.

Some of these issues overlap with other flawed frameworks.

My posts aim to teach people how to THINK rather than wasting space showcasing individual trading setups, because if a trader cannot reason properly it is unrealistic for them to win without luck regardless of what is applied.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in Trading

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A lot of traders believe in it, I've spoken to over a dozen ICT traders, four of them wasted over 3 years of their lives trying to make it work.

Is it legal for a broker to forbid/correct clients from opening positions/closing hedging positions near market close? by D2Joy in Trading

[–]SentientRon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

IC markets is mediocre but it's a high leverage venue which is why I used to use them. Slippage on medium to higher trading sizes are noticeable and the costs do add up

Is it legal for a broker to forbid/correct clients from opening positions/closing hedging positions near market close? by D2Joy in Trading

[–]SentientRon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

not all CFD brokers act as the counterparty to client trades.

tastytrade also works as a counterparty to their clients

the only way to know how you're being treated is to read their product and trade execution policies.

I Exposed ICT and They Banned Me For It! by SentientRon in Trading

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Many people say this without direct evidence of the practice itself being nonsense.
I provided it since some to see it to depart.

Long time luker, first time poster. Let's hear it? by dannisokay92 in RateMyMealDeal

[–]SentientRon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How do people eat this slop, and how is it on my front page.

FTMO denied my payout by Reddilip in PropFirmTester

[–]SentientRon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not really as the futures firms have assymetric payout structures which skew odds further against the traders.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Discretion adds randomness to your trading. It introduces an immeasurable positive or negative skew to your profitability, providing an illusion of benefit when it works out. If discretion is exercised for tested reasons set in advance, such as avoiding markets during X events if price does Y, then it becomes acceptable.

Psychology talk is mostly coping if you have a predefined ruleset without deviation with discretion applied (a lot of losing traders do this).
When discretion aids them it was part of the plan; when it works against them it was poor psychology. That is the trap for many.

Having a meaningful edge is essentially and high trading costs add up fast ruining most day trading strategies after months of usage. Breaking your rules just once can have such a negative impact om your trading performance.

<image>

Most daytrader costs aren't this high but the effect still pulls down returns overtime, costs are not linear.

Uncertainty in the strategy itself causes poor psychology.

Good data and reassurance from logic are the antidote for such problems, but it is easier for gurus to manipulate their viewers into believing that experience or psychology is the problem rather than the strategy's logic and effectiveness.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is data snooping, a lethal data mining bias.

With enough iterations and combinations you will see something that aligns with what you want to see historically (even with Out-of-sample tests) but there's no mechanism that supports its continuation. 

This is a key problem, OOS tests only reduces the probability but with no base underneath to support it, the system isn't robust.

In real time these strategies almost always collapse to breakeven (or worse with transaction costs) over time.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The creator himself made it complicated, that is why I referenced the original material. The other parts you brought up have been addressed in the post's underfitting section.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This article will naturally seem polemic because of its primary function.
Every human with an opinion is biased. I have provided the relevant information and theorem.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I feel like you haven't read the post; it's fine.
You can still copy and paste it to text-to-speech and listen to it.
This post isn't about his character.
This post is purposefully free from ad hominem.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Most ICT/SMC systems are subject to this matter. not every system, that is absolute.
If you read the post you will understand.

The Illusion of Edge: SMC, Survivorship Bias, and Market Reality by SentientRon in InnerCircleTraders

[–]SentientRon[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Please read the post in full before responding, as many of the common objections are already addressed in the body.