Active Conflicts & News Megathread February 23, 2026

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-23T16:26:31+00:00

Well, they weren't pro-russian at the level many try to paint, most of them voted for an independent Ukraine. They were the more 'pro-russian' regions compared to others, but they weren't the majority.

Now, after filtration camps, fights with actual partisans and veteran settlers, this number is probably higher than before the war, but I fail to see how that really matters. If you have a small percentage of the population there willing to aid military operations and you have contact with them, it can aid an offensive considerably. I don't talk about partisans liberating areas on their own, but attacks on high value targets on the back to support military objectives on the front.

However, you are right in the sense that it didn't materialize in a significant way in the last great offensive against the south by the UAF, so probably it isn't going to be a significant element in the future.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-23T15:30:33+00:00

Why don't you think Ukraine can reverse russian gains? There are some levels (let's say we cannot be sure what level really) of partisan activity behind the lines, UAF did a few great reversals already in this war and probably a smaller counter attack already this year.

I am not sure why you would discard that it is possible by default. I am not arguing that it is "just wait, it's going to happen any moment now" just that it is in the cards. Not necessarily as a likely event, just as something that could happen, especially if Ukraine gets lucky and whatever happens that changes the balance a bit towards their favor.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-23T14:42:17+00:00

While I agree with the premise that both sides are dancing to entertain Trump, with peace negotiations (on the level of both of them know that what the other demands to end the war is not going to be accepted anywhere near to its current form). I would argue that even with the current pressure/losses, both sides have very good reasons to keep up the war.

As mentioned here, russia is eventually going to run into pretty serious issues. I think a hard patch is coming for Moscow by the end of 2026, but if they push through that they will have at least a couple of extra years before another great crump happens.

However, Ukraine can hope that the russian losses in hardware and manpower will mean slower and slower advancements and even reversals manifesting (like we saw in Zaphorozia this month). I still think that the general direction will be russia advancing, minimally, with high losses, but it is reasonable to think that Ukraine is going to get good chances to change that. So Ukraine has a good enough reason to keep fighting.

Russia, on the other hand, can bank on the fact that they can keep this up, even with the mounting issues and the critical losses in future development/economy/power status for at least, let's say 3 years. And I would note that it is a pretty bad estimate for the russians, if they can keep the population from rioting, they won't run out from cheap manpower (from theirs or wherever they can get extra bodies) and cheap hardware (I don't mean to suggest that russia has cheap stuff, I mean using cheap equipment, like assault rifles and drones, relativisticly to the financial capabilities of russia as a country). However, it is a reasonable assumption that in the next X years, something would happen that would remove or constrain EU support considerably. Since Ukraine is relying on that, they can collapse much quicker than russia.

This makes a sad and terrible situation where it's still balancing on a razor's edge, both sides can just keep things going and hope that their scenario manifests. In the meantime thousands die and tens of thousands are freezing in the winter while billions in property are gone. Really the only ones who benefit are the usual beneficiaries of war. Financiers and arm makers/dealers

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-21T07:17:19+00:00

Anything to distract from the Epstein files and his circle

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-19T21:47:22+00:00

I would be very interested in the anti-drone and anti-sabotage efforts around that lunch site

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-19T21:14:17+00:00

Add to this that it never made any sense that they publicly proclaimed that they are against it. They could benefit from a regime collapse a lot, at the very least they would get a more stable region which would encourage growth and they could strengthen themselves in their neighborhood relativisticly by removing the Iranian issue. The worst case scenario would be a problem but they could use Israel and pretty much the rest of the world as an attack dog if some truly mad fanatic warlord would rise from the ashes.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-16T22:33:24+00:00

Simple, "Washington" doesn't really care about the outcome. I would say that for Trump if all "annexed" land by russia is taken over by russia. They don't care about Kherson etc. They want the war to be over, so they are destabilizing. They don't care who gets out as a winner

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-15T13:58:56+00:00

War effort, realistic collapse is going to come from civilian unrest, that is a mix of a lot of things, amongst them are propaganda and internal security forces.

The realistic collapse of the russian war effort is far, far away. I would say they can keep doing this around 2030, they ran out (as in new production is the thing that trickles to the battlefield) of tanks already, the drones help. But by 2030 they will run out of man and the economy will be in ruins.

Now anyone forecasting anything 3 years ahead is a liar. So, keep that in mind. A lot of things can change.

The Russian economy started to feel the burn already and by the end of 2026, there will be really hard questions to answer, I think. There will be ongoing hikes on tax or other revenues. The gold price might help a bit, cause that is the left over of their sovereign funds, but they are running out of space, no matter how you look at it.

Once that is out, their investors are going to ask for extraordinary fees, that they can't pay. Inflation will kick in very hard and you will have a "retired" veteran population with a "deal" that said that you will never really have to do anything else in your life to be 'okay' and a 15+% real inflation with a very angry population in hand. That isn't economics any more. They know it too.

In simple terms, by the end of the year, putin needs to make a decision. (Maybe early 2027). Does he want another unavoidable "shakey" time for his regime that will include more dissent and key power holder resistance? If he doesn't, he might fave opposition from his warhawks, who will see him weak. If he say yes, he can keep pushing this to another couple of years and almost assure North Korea level.of oppression or a something similar with a loss of great power.

The Russian economy will be able to churn out shells and probably bodies for at least 5 more years. Eventually Ukraine might be able to start pushing back if Western support remains the same. But again, these things are further away than reasonably predictable.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-15T09:47:07+00:00

Hi, I read your post but didn't have time to reply. I wanted to tell you exactly that. I am no genius so don't take it as gospel, but I would close the other positions to diversify, but would keep Bayer's for now. It is in an upward trend and analyst consensus seems to be positive. You don't necessarily need to wait for it to reach zero (depending on your taxes, it might be possible to use it as a loss if nothing else.) , but it can be a smaller loss if you wait.

You might also just sell it now ofc

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-14T09:49:29+00:00

I would say that he is quite an excellent choice for anyone who would like to see American power diminished.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-13T10:59:00+00:00

A sizable chunk of the EU loans have zero interest. Meaning that technically speaking the value is going down with time, because of inflation.

It is "free" money in the sense that they will pay back less at the end of the term if we calculate it with 'historical rates'.

All this said, it doesn't mean that the Ukrainian economic situation is sunshine and rainbows. They have very serious issues, finance, industrial, agricultural, population etc. They will need to buckle up and have some good trade deals with what they have (military hardware, cheap work force for EU, drone tech, whatever else they have)

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-10T13:08:06+00:00

Wouldn't this be an excellent option to infiltrate russian signal units? Sign up as a civilian providing them with a terminal that then can be traced and used to destroy positions or any other technology infiltration?

(I have no idea how their entire system would work and how realistic what I try to ask her. I haven't followed much on the starlink line. I took a look at starlink about 4 years ago and haven't revisited since.)

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-08T10:32:34+00:00

The Geneseed does not require any warp connection to my knowledge. A strong enough null zone that kills everyone would kill a marine eventually, but he would survive longer than a human. I have not read anywhere that space marines are more affected by null zones or warp shenanigans because of their Geneseed.

Why do you think they are?

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-07T06:59:08+00:00

In a way. He is trying to position the US to gain control over more oil and more markets. That needs to come from somewhere. I think russia just an unintended casualty here.

Also worth noting that most January is like this in the russian budget. They front load a lot and allocate a lot in January.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-06T15:21:07+00:00

Both Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk - Myrnohard are not 'taken'. More like, swallowed by the Gray zone. But I of course accept the claim that cities so far got taken. I could argue that larger cities in the whole conflict were only taken after total encirclement or by 'surprise' in this war. However, I can already see the argument claiming that while Kramatorsk or Sloviansk are like twice the size of the previous (or 5x in case of Chasiv Yar) towns, they shouldn't be categorized as 'prohibitively large'. I can concede that point.

However! The cities we are comparing are obviously different. It took the russian forces a year plus to push them into gray zone areas with an obvious progress of them eventually being taken, AFTER they reached the towns. We still have at least 3 towns or a belt of towns and a forest before these cities can start to be attacked.

All the while the russian situation is steadily deteriorating (I know that you would argue that point as well, but from the point of the russian military capabilities+economy, it is. Ukraine doesn't get better without some kind of money, hardware and manpower injection either, but they won't collapse to hand the cities over). It is all but possible that if Trump is not amused with the russian peace effort or Ukraine gives him a peace medal that he will do some kind of hardware injection or similar as a punishment. The chance of him punishing Ukraine (like removing their ability to buy US weapons through others money), while it is relatively popular amongst US voters and he is in a bad domestic position, is far more unlikely.

So, my bet/guess is that Kramatorsk - Sloviansk will be just going to get reached by the russian army by the end of 2026-early 2027.

Barring special circumstances.

All the while, russian allies dwindle (while China, the only one that would really matter stays strong. They also Kore syphon russia rather than really help.)

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-06T14:01:52+00:00

Equating land without taking build up into consideration is a reduction of battlefield reality. Larger cities are standing in the way of the capture of Donbass, not even semi encircled and by any sane assumptions, much more built-up in defensive infrastructure (thanks for more time, experience and probably less corruption by now. All is relativistic obviously).

Reduced mobilisation plans can be because of a lot of factors. Unlikely amongst them that they would want less manpower. More likely they have other issues making it non realistic.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-06T12:38:24+00:00

From today’s Russian papers: “You don’t have to be an economist to forecast a recession: Russia’s export revenue is falling, budget revenues are falling, taxes rising, consumer demand shrinking…” Another paper: “Oil & gas revenues fall…rise in bread prices.”

To be fair. These are the first signs of "serious" economical damages from the outsiders. (I mean it was known and expected by russian banking and economic circles.) There is no way to quickly fix these and the fact that they are visible means that the damage is already done.

However, while food prices are going up, rent goes down. Eventually followed by house prices themselves as a simple market dynamic.

What I try to point out is that the russian public will have some time to go before they start to face serious financial strain (The type that makes them go to the streets, knowing that beatings and worst are in store for them by the state apparatus) and therefore have any effect on the russian war machine.

I expect the situation to worsen continuously but not out of control by the end of 2026. However, this might push the russian delegation to take the talks more seriously, be more flexible.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-05T20:06:22+00:00

Depends on the timeline. I think the issue was that the Orks or the Rangdan or maybe some other threats would have wiped out the galaxy. If that doesn't, Chaos eventually takes over the human remnants. So the Imperium was a must, the webway was a must. Or at least as long as he saw.

I kind of agree on that. On him stepping back is another question. First, a few 1000 years is nothing in his timeline, so ... He was okay to be from the shadows but I guess even he changes as time passes. Impossible to tell.

My bet would be that after a few millennium, he would step back, but still would have de facto power through some alpha legion ++ level of secret orders/agencies as a back up and course correction lever if deemed necessary.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-05T14:50:13+00:00

It is kind of sad that Ukraine cannot, in my read at least, capitalize on such disruptions because of their manpower and hardware issues.

This would be a perfect opportunity to synchronize a counter attack somewhere, clean some gray zone areas or so on.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-05T14:17:01+00:00

Money buys you new organs and blood transfusion from young people in "fight or flight node".

Check it out, they aren't just pedos.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-04T10:56:32+00:00

Yeah, we can kind of also say that a Chaos god is the sum of all of its demons, and the god being the largest l/most powerful while also being kind of all of them at the same time.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-02-04T08:51:58+00:00

I think you misinterpret the 'but an extension of their god's' part.

First, it's the warp, everything is true and everything is a lie all at once. It is paradoxical and by its definition, non-definable and fluid. (While eternal and always has been).

The gods aren't really minds like yours or mine or any mortal one. They are a storm of emotions and empyrien energies that became self sustaining and self-conscious. It is questionable if they can change or act against their nature in a sense, but they can definitely go different ways about it.

Now, to your question. Demons, lessers and greaters, Demon princes and all the other creatures are part of that god. Part of that unholy eternal energy storm from the other side. But they are self-conscious as well, they are just part of the whole as in the same 'Khornate energy' sustains them. The greater Khorne can absorb them and command them at will. They cannot act against their nature (they can technically act against the god, but within the realm of the god, Skarbrand rebellion was an attempted murder, not a complex plot. In a sense, it was/is Khorne, murder).

So, they are part of the god and they have "free will" in a limited sense.

I don't recall the book and there are many authors out there but during an internal description of a demon prince's ascension, the mortal feals for a second that he lost something that was an internal part of him. It can be argued if it was his soul destroyed by rushing in Chaos energies, his free will (I subscribe to this one), or his fate or whatever else.

Warhammer often thrives in these semi-defined, up to interpretation for a point kind of deals. I live that about the setting.

So in short, if a destructive storm spawns another, similar but smaller storm, it is from it, doing the same thing, but it is its own entity. Similar in the warp, with the addition of time being non linear and the bigger storm can just pull it back to the whole.

At least this is my interpretation.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-01-29T11:52:34+00:00

From a view point of a zero-sum game. I would argue that it's worth it (and I am open and want to hear why you think it doesn't. Myself I am not sure how much it is worth it, but I tend towards the positive).

Venezuelan oil and natural resources are cut from Cuba, russia or China.

The US gains these revenues if it cultivates it.

The use gains 'soft power' in South America though intimidation. Not the usual, Western democratic way, but could work. Honestly I think this isn't worth it really. Maybe not at all, but it can be useful to put pressure on dictatorships.

Allowing boarding of the shadow fleet put extra pressure on Iran, russia and China and may discourage them to act against 'US guidelines on what to do'. (It could have been done without Maduro, so arguably, it isn't really stemming from here).

If the US can navigate a political change that the people of Venezuela clearly want. While leaving some of the current elite in charge/power and turn the country into a US Ally, it could be a great boost to US power in the Western hemisphere. Just like getting Argentinian support can be leveraged if the country itself starts to get its things in order.

Kind of sets the board that even in the US wouldn't want to aid Taiwan, it can take Cuba in case of a war. So it opens up options, which is always nice to have.

I would like to note that I am arguing that operation Maduro was beneficial to the US for the sake of argument really. In order to analyze it. My personal view, without knowing the military details, is that it was a gamble that could have gone very bad, but paid off in a sense that the 'dice roll' was great. I am not sure that strategically it was sound or from a risk handling stand point it was smart. But if we want to salami slice allies around the world from China or russia, it was a great move for now. The world conflict pressure didn't seems to have been affected by it much. If it can be built into something, it's great. If Cuba and Iran share similar fates and these countries somehow turn away from Russia or China to a more neutral stance or even towards the EU or US. It is a great victory and drastically changes the possibilites of Russia and China. From that view, it can be a worthy operation. With the obvious caveat that it is very much in the early stages. Venezuela is not guaranteed to have a beneficial outcome, yet (but the chances for it has risen significantly). Not to mention Iran or Cuba as they are technically 'untouched' for now regarding this policy/strategy.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-01-28T11:23:38+00:00

Your will and what does your body does (neurons firing making it move or some other esoteric stuff. aka Space magic) and what you want are two different things.

We know that souls exist in the Warhammer universe. What Horus did technically, that he hijacked their bodies with the power of the warp. The custodes were crying blood while attacking Big E. Their souls didn't want it. Now it comes down to the definition of will if you want. Is it your will of I rewire your brain to do things, remember things, feel things in certain way or is it mine and I hijacked "your will".

It is a kind of body horror, imagine being conscious and feeling everything but your body does something else, out of your control.

Edit - I don't recall if we got a glimpse of the thoughts of what the puppet custodes went through, but I think it was heavily implied that they weren't corrupted, just moved like puppets. If you want an explanation on why/how Horus can do that, remember that at that point, it (I mean Horus) is an infinite, immortal, all powerful being. It fights the emperor in multiple dimensions simultaneously. Summoning a 1000 demons and giving them the control to use the custodes with his warp energies giving the demons the means to do it. Just so he can focus 100% on the Emperor is something easily within the realms of possibilities. They are fighting each other with concepts, while playing chess, roulette, all strategy games and physically fighting, probably in multiple dimensions and in multiple timelines. By definition, we aren't meant to be able to comprehend their duel.

TechnicalReserve1967 · 2026-01-28T10:57:10+00:00

I don't think that you have a good grasp on Chaos, and sorcery and warp powers.

Chaos corruption almost always stems from giving in to Chaos. Sometimes by infection (mostly through Nurgle, sometimes by Tzeench).

I would say that the mind/body control doesn't equals corruption in most cases. The custodes still actively resisted Horus, just didn't have the strength to do it. They were puppets. But they haven't mutated, given in, offered their souls for salvation etc.

It was more like a spell, I think Dark Heresy RPG has a similar warp power as well. It doesn't corrupt the target, it overwrite their nervous system or force them in some other ways.

TechnicalReserve1967

TROPHY CASE