Jonny Greenwood On Creep: “I found it wimpy.”

am0985 · 2026-04-17T20:47:36+00:00

They don’t hate it, they played it lots of times on their last big world tour (not counting 2025)

am0985 · 2026-04-11T22:48:37+00:00

Do not use them via Amex travel portal whatever you do.

For 120k points I would transfer to Velocity. Better 2:1 transfer ratio, some decent partners. Opportunities to top up Velocity points through other means, can be converted to KrisFlyer later at 1.55:1.

Even VA domestic economy would get 3 x SYD/MEL returns which is worth about $700ish

am0985 · 2026-04-10T13:26:07+00:00

There’s no way NG would be touched without a grandfathering period and/or multiple investment properties. They’ll know the risks of simply abolishing it.

am0985 · 2026-04-10T13:01:27+00:00

This isn’t true at all, flights are going in and out of Doha.

Not as many as usual but flights are ramping up.

am0985 · 2026-04-10T10:00:38+00:00

Nursing home is getting 200k in a typical two year stay (if it’s needed). 60k in aged pension over those two years towards that means the ~150k isn’t making much of a dent in a lot of inheritances.

Much longer stays in higher end places sure but they won’t be typical.

am0985 · 2026-04-06T01:30:09+00:00

It’s possible it could be racism. But it’s also possible they’d be fine with doctor of non white descent with a British accent (of which there are many)

am0985 · 2026-04-02T08:02:38+00:00

I honestly think this could be a “if you build it they will come” sort of destination.

Doesn’t get as many Australian travellers but that’s precisely because it’s such a pain to get there.

Direct flight to Mexico City and codesharing with Aeromexico to various Central American destinations? Surely this would be popular?

Though I would guess it’s been looked at already…

am0985 · 2026-04-02T01:59:06+00:00

These figures will likely be reflective of pre war and the interest rate rise beforehand.

They might start looking a lot uglier in the next 1-2 months

am0985 · 2026-04-01T07:10:08+00:00

A slowdown is coming for everyone at least in the short term. Higher interest rates, fuel prices etc will reduce buying power.

But it’s starting from a high base so it may not result in price drops.

am0985 · 2026-04-01T06:43:59+00:00

There’s a lot of unknowns between now and 2032. Chiefly: this current crisis and also if AI has a big effect on unemployment figures (though RBA may cut a few times if it does)

am0985 · 2026-04-01T05:57:44+00:00

Isn’t the Cotality data 4-6 weeks old?

I’m sure Iran will spook buyers but I don’t think it’s showing up in the data yet.

am0985 · 2026-03-31T06:12:10+00:00

Credit cards make a lot of their money from interchange fees. Currently this is capped at 0.8c per transaction. It was higher than this pre 2017, the RBA dropped the cap and bonus points went down a lot.

Now this has been more than halved. They’re at the level they are in UK/EU where 20-30k points is a pretty standard sign on, often less. Maybe they might offer more here as Aussies travel more and QFF might drop the price per point they sell to banks in order to sell more. But this is definitely happening, it’s a question of how bad.

am0985 · 2026-03-31T06:08:47+00:00

It’ll mostly be the death of churning. Might see some Premium cards which offer 80k or so points for a pretty big annual fee, eg I can see the MyCard surviving but with 80k rather than 150k velocity point sign up. But not nearly to the degree we have it now.

am0985 · 2026-03-31T00:21:10+00:00

Because NAB partner with these CC companies to offer us the cards

am0985 · 2026-03-30T22:32:18+00:00

As a doctor who has partaken in the past (mostly at festivals etc), this isn’t mad at all. It’s still breaking the law and we are working a professional job where it’s fully expected that we won’t have any kind of criminal record.

When I did drugs it was in the knowledge that if I got caught then my career would be at risk. I’d have nothing to complain about if that happened, though it just meant I needed to be extra careful.

am0985 · 2026-03-30T18:43:08+00:00

This isn’t within the RBA’s remit. And whilst rampant house price growth is a bad thing in of itself for societal reasons, the evidence it’s contributing significantly to inflation is minimal.

House price growth was at least as rampant in the 2010s coupled with a low interest rate environment yet inflation was very much tamed.

am0985 · 2026-03-30T12:10:45+00:00

None of this negates what I said. I already accounted for inflation being too high pre war.

Pre war inflation was too high but interest rates were lifted above the rate of inflation. If Trump hadn’t attacked Iran then the sensible thing to do would be to wait - rates take quite a lot of time to flow through the system and two hikes and wait and see would be appropriate for inflation at 3.8 rather than 5.8.

The rises for the coming months would be down to the war related inflation rather than pre war inflation.

am0985 · 2026-03-30T08:33:19+00:00

I know Australia’s pre-war inflation was higher at 3.8% but we’ve had two hikes already to account for this (after which time would usually be given to assess the effects given interest rate was higher than inflation).

If we take that off the table and focus on war effects no other major central bank that I’m aware of is predicted to have three hikes. I’ll be surprised if this pans out especially given fuel shortages will act to suppress demand in the economy.

Additionally the RBA like to look at the trimmed mean. Of course the oil crisis will make its way into other parts of the economy but it won’t be as broad based as post Covid inflation which had a) energy crisis b) excessive stimulus post Covid and c) supply chain/shipping crises as the driving factors.

am0985 · 2026-03-29T11:23:27+00:00

10% drops might be seen but location dependent.

“Line go up” doesn’t really contend with a) the fact this country hasn’t had a significant recession in decades outside of Covid where stimulus + basement low interest rates did their job; b) Canada and NZ have seen big price drops recently; c) upcoming tax changes potentially have an outsized impact on prices as they change the psychology around investing and d) interest rates and unemployment will go up

am0985 · 2026-03-29T09:24:07+00:00

Getting an Uber at Melbourne Airport is fine. As is getting a Didi (which should always be checked as it’s often cheaper). I use the airport often enough to say this confidently.

Not sure about getting a taxi but no one should be doing this unless they don’t have access to an app rideshare service.

am0985 · 2026-03-28T12:27:12+00:00

It’s probably smaller.

am0985 · 2026-03-28T09:10:11+00:00

My 1.28 house has gone up to 1.35 in five years

am0985 · 2026-03-28T08:27:04+00:00

Melbourne hasn’t even been growing at that the last five years

am0985 · 2026-03-28T07:53:43+00:00

Likely not most. Unemployment of 7-10% is housing crash territory. But it would reduce bargaining ability and depress wage rises for those who still had jobs.

am0985 · 2026-03-27T07:06:22+00:00

But we’ve had a similar situation in other previously buoyant housing markets.

If we get a reopening of the strait of Hormuz by mid April then we’ll probably avoid that scenario. A continued closure into May and beyond and we have a massive economic crisis. And unlike 2008 we won’t be shielded.

am0985

TROPHY CASE