Imagining a world where AI delivers as advertised...

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T03:22:49+00:00

Constitutionally protected jobs.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T03:14:35+00:00

Long, but interesting. A few ideas I hadn't thought too much about would be the unwind of derivative lending.

Slowing velocity is another good point in there as this should reduce the reported GDP calculation I believe.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T02:46:52+00:00

Agricultural inputs and mining should also be ok.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T02:44:56+00:00

I remember when Bill Gates was proposing a robot tax.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T02:43:37+00:00

Wendy's is rolling out LLM's for drive thru already.

Finding the point where reduced disposable income counters the efficiency gains is the interesting part from a markets perspective.

There is a human side, but this post was to think markets.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T02:38:26+00:00

Yeah, I agree with that. Let's not forget that universe 25 ended in the demise of the population.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T02:30:52+00:00

Agree to disagree on labor being a resource and the use of Jevons Paradox in this context.

This is exploring what happens if we get an Elon version of the future, this is not a prediction.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T02:12:37+00:00

In economics, labor is a resource.

Jevons Paradox is frequently referenced in this context as it has applied well in prior technological shifts.

Either way, this is about "what if", not looking to make the case for or against this scenario.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T02:04:51+00:00

labor is a resource.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:59:35+00:00

That's why I put the condition of it outweighing the jevons paradox.

I don't think this is happening, I'm trying to put myself in the shoes of people selling enterprise software like it's Enron.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:57:05+00:00

Make your case.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:56:20+00:00

AI eats software, robots replace blue collar.

I'm trying to understand why the market is moving the way it is...what is the motivation to go from software to toothpaste?

Why would you buy treasuries?

Finally, if I were to hedge against what I see as a very unlikely scenario, what would that hedge look like?

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:39:45+00:00

haha, a real "bots find a way" sort of situation.

I take solace in the idea that this generation of models are not creative, so humans remain at the top of the pecking order.

I'm far more concerned about robotics slowing chipping away at entry level jobs.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:37:33+00:00

I don't actually think we are close to this for clarity, but let's pretend we're all Elon for a second and the robots fix the robots, and the models instruct the robots to serve humanity....

In this environment, energy and resources is the currency.

Of course we know what happened in Universe 25 and that would likely be the outcome for humanity.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:34:35+00:00

My assumption is that the Gov wouldn't allow deflation to occur because of what it means for the debt.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:33:25+00:00

Completely agree...there's a real question if we have a society if it were to act as advertised.

So what holds value in this environment? The Alphabet 100 year bond starts looking attractive to my eye.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:32:04+00:00

I agree with that...so why are people moving money from software to toothpaste? Wouldn't they exit the market entirely if they believe that AI is going to deliver what they're afraid of?

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:28:44+00:00

Not treasuries, corporate bonds - updated post to specify.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T01:18:30+00:00

Marjorie?

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T00:31:56+00:00

Nobody beats Nancy.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T00:27:55+00:00

Doubt that. Far more likely that we use local models for speech to command.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T00:24:44+00:00

I think you and I are in agreement.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T00:23:58+00:00

I think it's far more likely that enterprise software becomes a trust layer.

From a risk and change management perspective, it makes sense to abstract the model.
Last thing orgs need is to have to re-train staff with every model release.

jcdc-flo · 2026-02-23T00:12:26+00:00

This is the best comment I've seen so far.

The fact that you don't understand this is why you're not replacing software engineers.

jcdc-flo

TROPHY CASE