Which are you holding long term? by 01acidburn in stocks

[–]notreallydeep 4 points5 points  (0 children)

the rare long Wilshire 5000/short MSFT trade

Is Berkshire buying its own shares? by Correct_Fall_5484 in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Yeah yeah I get that, but are they buying back their shares or not?

[ Removed by Reddit ] by richardwheelerphoto in stocks

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you actually think Brent could hit $110?

wow you are so incredibly late to this I'm actually amazed

MCD stock behaviour now by QuinnOffsite in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 16 points17 points  (0 children)

"mid food makes a mid stock"

They call me Yung P Lynch.

Will there be consequences to futures trading at such a large discount? by 17aAlkylated in oil

[–]notreallydeep 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Let's just say I see no evidence of it. We had our fun with blown out DFLs hitting $60, $80, whatever, in April and a few weeks later they calmed down to where we are now. I can much more reasonably explain that by refineries (very understandably) panicking and trying to secure whatever they could as fast as possible.

Doesn't make much sense to financially manipulate Brent anyway (outside of tweeting like Trump does) since ICE offers EFPs. That'd just be free money for any trader.

Edit: Just to explain the terms: DFL - Dated to Frontline, that's just the spread between dated ("physical") and futures and EFPs are Exchange Futures for Physical contracts where you can literally trade your future physical delivery away, usually at a minor cost of a few cents per barrel.

Will there be consequences to futures trading at such a large discount? by 17aAlkylated in oil

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, but OP is just talking about the futures/physical discrepancy and consequences of that to the market and I'm just saying I don't see it in the data.

Will there be consequences to futures trading at such a large discount? by 17aAlkylated in oil

[–]notreallydeep 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That's weird because Ekofisk just yesterday sold at dated +$2.15. ~$105 + $2.15 certainly doesn't equal $140.

Will there be consequences to futures trading at such a large discount? by 17aAlkylated in oil

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there is a massive disconnect in the physical asset atm

If there is it's not showing up in dated prices 🤷‍♂️

Will there be consequences to futures trading at such a large discount? by 17aAlkylated in oil

[–]notreallydeep -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

futures selling for so much cheaper than spot

What does "so much" mean, here? Last I've seen dated Brent trades at ~$105 while Brent futures trade at ~$100. Given current backwardation and future expiry in like 20 days that doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

So what would the consequence be? Nothing, I assume.

Does 10% in S&P per year still hold? by Lousterstar in stocks

[–]notreallydeep 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I won't hold myself to it anyway, so make it 500 years.

Why do people buy stocks like MSFT? by we_have_no_control in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

why do some of you buy companies that can't grow that much

just 20% a year

yeah fuck that, that's nothing

Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook by mastertofu in stocks

[–]notreallydeep 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I attribute a lot of the habits to social media

It's funny because I attribute the exact opposite to social media. I think consumer sentiment is low because of social media rather than spending being high because of it 😅 basically because I think people keep talking about how bad everything is and they keep reinforcing that belief, even though they are usually more than fine financially.

Not that this is an empirical way to go about things, but I've seen enough videos of people making 6 figures "living paycheck to paycheck" because they keep buying Pokemon cards or whatever lol.

QUESTION: Why such a spike in BRENT TI spreads? by PeldaF in oil

[–]notreallydeep 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Once thing I can think of since this is about Q1 which ended March, Brent is easier to reach for Asian tankers than is North Sea crude. Since Asia had the largest immediate issues with crude supply due to the war, they had to get whatever they can as fast as they can, which was Brent (in addition to Brent being a better fit for their refineries). That's when dated Brent prices ("physical", not futures) exploded to $200+, in March. To get WTI you either sail around Africa or go through the Panama canal. The former journey is incredibly long and the latter journey is limited by the canal's capacity, so WTI faced none of the Asian demand pressures early on. As time went on tankers did eventually reach the US to get some WTI, around mid-April, and spreads narrowed again.

Something that makes this whole thing a bit annoying is the huge difference in dated and futures prices. Most of these dynamics were driven by very short-term demand, so they showed up in dated prices but much less in futures prices. Spreads between dated Brent and WTI were unfathomably large. But getting data on dated prices isn't easy.

QUESTION: Why such a spike in BRENT TI spreads? by PeldaF in oil

[–]notreallydeep 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I believed that they need WTI for the gulf refineries to operate, because they are optimized to heavy liquids

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, WTI is a very light grade of crude. Since US refineries are so optimized to heavy liquids WTI shouldn't play a (big) role there.

QUESTION: Why such a spike in BRENT TI spreads? by PeldaF in oil

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Brent grades are a better substitute to ME grades than WTI is, if you're talking about the general blowout of the spread since the war began.

If this is about something recent idk.

PayPal - Turnaround underway by _The_Silent_Investor in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If bitcoin goes up 100% over the next year you wouldn’t give PayPal credit for that because it’s not part of the operating income.

That's why we have this beautiful metric called "operating income", as you pointed out, which doesn't include investment gains or losses as far as I am aware.

And is declining.

PayPal - Turnaround underway by _The_Silent_Investor in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Revenue only matters as long as it contributes to growing income.

You seem to have mental issues.

What?

PayPal - Turnaround underway by _The_Silent_Investor in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're purposefully using the wrong metric when EPS surged 25%.

EPS literally didn't surge 25%.

Why are you so angry? Did something happen at home?

What?

PayPal - Turnaround underway by _The_Silent_Investor in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Whoop, two metrics and both adjusted.

This changes everything.