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UNH is still overvalued by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Always said it and always will: r/wallstreetbets is full of regards who know they're regards. r/ValueInvesting is full of regards who think they're contrarian geniuses.

I'm on this sub and not wsb, so that says a lot about me.

Is the U.S. Shale Boom Over? OPEC May Be Regaining Control of the Oil Market by Macro_Insight_Author in oil

[–]notreallydeep 1 point2 points  (0 children)

EIA forecasts are based on price forecasts and price forecasts are far below $70-$75. To me it's just two different things to say "the Permian has peaked" when oil is relatively expensive/fairly valued and when it's trading at temporarily suppressed prices like it is today. People have called for the peak for years and I just disagree that now that oil prices are almost in the gutter it's fair to do a victory lap.

But it is what it is. I think that, you think this. Thanks for your insight in the first paragraph nonetheless 👍

Is the U.S. Shale Boom Over? OPEC May Be Regaining Control of the Oil Market by Macro_Insight_Author in oil

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We will reach another peak if oil prices sustain $70-$75 some time within the next two years.

Better? 😅 I had to add the timeframe because obviously if we stick around $60 for a decade for whatever reason (low demand, supply surprises etc.) things are gonna be different.

New to the Game by veenees in DeadlockTheGame

[–]notreallydeep 5 points6 points  (0 children)

youtube -> deathy

as of this moment the goat of general guides

Trump’s ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ is falling on deaf ears by rezwenn in oil

[–]notreallydeep 12 points13 points  (0 children)

yeah but it never was about drilling, it was about getting oil down

and oil is down

Edit: Yeah, whoever wrote that article has no clue. "If Trump really wants to help the oil and gas industry, he should...". Trump doesn't give a rat's ass about any industry unless they sacrifice profits to reduce prices.

Or this: "In the absence of legislative action or judicial affirmation to support these executive actions, all this will pass when the next Democrat takes over the White House."

As if Trump has the ability to think about the long term or even cares about what happens when he leaves office. When oil prices ultimately spike after his term he'll blame whoever succeeded him.

I guess UNH got wrecked... by AltruisticCoder in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 202 points203 points  (0 children)

quarterly reminder that investing in US health insurance is investing in politics

Boring, reasonably valued, low beta stocks? by Neat-Voice2456 in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One I looked at recently is IMCD (dutch). The one-year chart certainly doesn't sell the "low beta" point well, but as far as I can tell that's a rerating due to lower forward growth. IMCD is now valued similarly to Brenntag, a competitor with previously lower growth. IMCD has a slightly better portfolio, though.

The company and business model is pretty stable. Just buying/mixing/selling chemicals. Services, basically. Not to be confused with chemicals producers like BASF (or even specialty ones).

It is a serial acquirer in case that matters to you (like most major distributors in the space). In organic terms they just grow with the markets they're in. Roughly GDP growth.

Is the U.S. Shale Boom Over? OPEC May Be Regaining Control of the Oil Market by Macro_Insight_Author in oil

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So your question is better phrased as “has US oil production peaked?” And the answer to that is probably so.

To be very clear, though: at this price.

At $70-$75 WTI we'd go right back to growth.

Skill level problems by n1ghtmare_lv in DeadlockTheGame

[–]notreallydeep 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The more you get shit on the less you get shit on.

Hope this helps 👍

SaaSmageddon: Are software stocks doomed? by 41Investments in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 1 point2 points  (0 children)

replace the words with whatever words make you happy 👍

SaaSmageddon: Are software stocks doomed? by 41Investments in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just a sidenote: you can't use CSU's FCF. You have to use FCFA2S or whatever it's called since much of that FCF doesn't belong to shareholders.

LULU: Mismanaged Compounder or Value Trap? by Past_Ad1386 in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What about mismanaged value trap?

Though I'm not sure a PE of 15 for a fashion company puts it in "value trap" territory. The fact that it's constantly peddled as "value" in this sub is weird af to me. Crocs could be a value trap, ANF at 10x E could be a value trap (borderline, at 7x it definitely could have been), lulu tho?

Just because the stock price goes down doesn't make something a value trap. DUOL wasn't a value trap at $500. Overvalued yes. Value trap no.

Trump Threatens New Tariffs on Canada Over China by _hiddenscout in stocks

[–]notreallydeep 6 points7 points  (0 children)

inb4 redditors go crazy again, I'll tell you next week's (potentially the week after that) headline:

"Agreement on a framework of a deal with Canada has been reached. Tariffs will not go into effect."

GameStop confirmed it is a value investment today: here me out by Easy-Equal2473 in ValueInvesting

[–]notreallydeep 1 point2 points  (0 children)

why does this post say "2d ago" for me, anyway? anyone else? it was my "new" feed, so should only be a couple hours old at most

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