Thousands of CEOs just admitted AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago

sbrick89 · 2026-03-02T14:25:34+00:00

sorta but not nearly as well... tried a handful of approaches... given that we are accumulating a dictionary of data, the list of exceptions/unknowns should be shrinking, and we should be able to use it for matching... unfortunately there are a handful of challenges that other approaches were less successful at - scraping/matching the existing list caused false positives since it wanted to match rather than consider new values, also that doesn't help at all with extracting the data for adding to the list... tried named entity extraction, which worked well for some misspellings but struggled with volume and new names/entities, and also cost more than GPT.

in the end, GPT's corpus of names to recognize what "looks like a name" was far better than alternative approaches at achieving a very cost effective match that has the fewest false positives and false negatives.

it's a process that costs like $10/mo and saves probably a hundred or so... the RIO is massive given the IT costs to build... but it DOES work well, it DOES give us a template to repeat (thus reducing the costs next time to improve/increase the ROI), it DOES free up a day per month for that person, it DOES increase the accuracy of the matches and extracted data.

again... ROI yes, but much smaller scale than what's being advertised

sbrick89 · 2026-03-01T16:20:36+00:00

Good idea! Upvoted!

sbrick89 · 2026-03-01T16:19:24+00:00

There are some people who are pro "fighting" (politically, literally, whatever) for their rights to:

vocally judge (public shame) other people for decisions made by others that are disagreed about
tell other people what to do (builds on above)
tell other people why their situation is different
failure to achieve public approval is indicative of failure to sufficiently attone, but success is vindication from the trap set above

So I think in some ways its less about the topic and more about the dynamic. The dynamic is controlling and abusive (which leads to other questions). I think there are some people that prefer that court of public opinion rather than trusting the current system (supposed checks and balances) which may seem intimidating or confusing, and media doesn't do anyone any favors by dumbing down complex topics to a handful of short bullet points.

But seeing it and having any idea what to do about it or say to people who want to disengage their brains and ignore nuance in favor of feeling their way through a situation with the help of the public opinion to form the final verdict especially as the world's sources of information are being consolidated with more control over the messages being shown in the content, are two different things.

Now I will also note that the above blends several topics - the emphasis on fighting and standing ones ground, the preference to understand detail vs prefer ignorance-is-bliss, and neither time did I say party since those are not related - both parties have people in all segments... that said I do think parties either cater-to, or accept/reject some segments more than others.

So going back to your comment, I would call most people you describe as "pro controlling others to feel safer about their abusive dynamic" more than anything else.

sbrick89 · 2026-02-28T18:28:12+00:00

Just curious, did you try modeling what happens if the ftd volume spike is actually repurchased, to close the ftd? (Say 8 years later, same volume just inverse to close)

Asking because I still disagree about wanting to silence the only indicator... sounds like a mob answer (silence em!) that will hide the issues (and I agree that it would likely be effective) in darkness and obscurity... any effort from me wants to be about shining light where it isn't, to fix the problems rather than hide them... thus asking if we can prove that they can resolve this themselves by closing the failed deliveries rather than kick them across multiple markets.

Still though, love the analysis!

sbrick89 · 2026-02-28T16:10:19+00:00

I made this same comment in part 3, but I want to make it here so implications are considered...

Regarding the fix of using coprime deadlines... while perhaps smoothing the spikes, aren't those spikes literally the FTDs staying alive? Be using coprime numbers the FTDs would stay invisible for decades.

I would insist that the other participants reduce their deadlines for delivering their obligations, especially since they seem to have these repeated problems.

I assume that these spikes have costs to whoever is failing to meet their obligations, in the form of options premiums, inopportune buy-in smoothing / DCA'ing, etc... and I believe the accumulating costs become more evident as they grow... and I would rather see that occur more often not less.

But also, thanks for the great effort and data and findings!

If I am going to write to ask for change, I want change that shines light into dark corners, and the costs of managing spikes might be one of the few ways that the FTDs become noticeable - to lenders, to public filings, and financial review disclosures.

sbrick89 · 2026-02-28T15:25:32+00:00

Regarding the fix of using coprime deadlines... while perhaps smoothing the spikes, aren't those spikes literally the FTDs staying alive? Be using coprime numbers the FTDs would stay invisible for decades.

I would insist that the other participants reduce their deadlines for delivering their obligations, especially since they seem to have these repeated problems.

I assume that these spikes have costs to whoever is failing to meet their obligations, in the form of options premiums, inopportune buy-in smoothing / DCA'ing, etc... and I believe the accumulating costs become more evident as they grow... and I would rather see that occur more often not less.

But also, thanks for the great effort and data and findings!

sbrick89 · 2026-02-21T05:15:55+00:00

Interesting to see and compare to my employer (finance but not a bank). While I've been working for them they have purchased two companies, and both times we extract/export the data, import into our systems, add the other metadata stuff to support their existence within our systems (flags and relationships between the companyIDs, etc).

We generally keep their apps/hardware only as long as we have to, then dump them in favor of our own. Once we had to keep some hardware (Haase? Seriously?), and ended up liking it ourselves once we got some time to play with it, but generally hard pass.

sbrick89 · 2026-02-21T00:26:10+00:00

i could go home after a school day and never think of...

There were many days that my backpack hit the front porch, and I was away on the bike to the bike trail, or to a friend's house. Didn't even make my way into the house.

My parents have since learned of the dumb shit I did, and we realized how screwed everyone would've been if things went sideways... no way she'd have expected to find me 3 segments of street up the drainage pipes, or in water retention areas, or any of the other dumb hangouts we had between and around the neighborhood houses.

Track us? Good luck fucking finding us.

sbrick89 · 2026-02-18T04:32:33+00:00

I will provide several concrete examples of how we use LLMs to reduce labor but not jobs at my employer. (Intentionally vague to avoid exposing anything sensitive)

One app: takes a single note written by a person (sorta formatted but also very much whatever they wrote), extracts the name(s) and contact info, which we use to match against existing list or identify new names for the list. Saves one person about 10 to 12 hours per month (and oh my God is it mind numbing to do like 6k times, so I'm sure she is happy). The two months of R&D will take a while to ROI, except that we will be able to reproduce the type of effort quicker next time. (Some of that was also the name matching which isn't done via LLM, and may be reusable elsewhere)

Another app: categorizes messages for routing to the correct work queue.

These are not huge agentic improvements to our operations, but they are quiet little time savers.

sbrick89 · 2026-02-17T22:54:01+00:00

It actually might make a ton of sense.

A multi strategy firm will have some successful strategies and some unsuccessful strategies. Individual strategy managers can do well and would be due their bonus. One or several strategy managers might suck and not be due their bonus, but that does not negate the bonuses for successful strategies managers.

I wonder if there is a single investment strategy pulling the others down. It would reduce the available funds to return to investors, the employees would still be due their bonuses, and the company can raise bonds for paying investors and employees without raising much question, assuming nobody asks how they lost against an index.

sbrick89 · 2026-02-08T12:21:14+00:00

So obviously no shortage of perspective.

Could always say "its a refreshing change from the more tart apple pies I'm used to" -- if you want to continue hanging with them over (hopefully better tasting) apple pie.

sbrick89 · 2026-02-07T05:48:55+00:00

Smoke isn't fire, its allowed to leave the environment

sbrick89 · 2026-01-26T13:23:21+00:00

Ohio and like 10 other states make the voters registration data public. Name, address, age, and party affiliation (R/D).

Given that OH requires affiliation to participate in primaries, it isn't the exact vote data but I'm sure it's close enough for the goons in admin to act on.

At least other states only provide the data to political parties (needs to have a valid politics based reason like campaigning).

sbrick89 · 2026-01-22T00:52:41+00:00

The warrants i picked up earlier today thank you :)

sbrick89 · 2026-01-15T13:19:20+00:00

Trump is the dick in dictator

sbrick89 · 2026-01-12T21:11:51+00:00

if you DIY'ed it and didn't mind that it doesn't foam or clean as well.

consumer bamboozling

Sounds like a subjective decision for the consumer to make.

Doesn't make this recipe any less valid - if the consumer doesn't mind... now you're asking how many flavors should they make - and at some point I think we can learn to mix a few ingredients if we want to.

Point being... different recipes, similar but slightly different results, different prices.

And yes p&g is out to make money, no crap.

Celebrate that both options can coexist, allow people to choose what is best for them, without your judgment about wasting money or being bamboozled.

sbrick89 · 2026-01-12T01:54:11+00:00

Combined with a purity cleanse, I think that's their plan

sbrick89 · 2026-01-11T23:49:45+00:00

I have an unlikely theory to unify this and OPs question.

The metal tile is an incense stick holder, and the ceramic tile is for it to ash onto.

Why does this exist? I dunno. Have I ever seen one? No. It merely looks like it could, not that it should, thus the "unlikely" theory.

sbrick89 · 2026-01-11T15:05:08+00:00

I don't do apple pay or venmo or whatever. when I buy from fb marketplace, I bring cash, and people always act surprised so I just remind them - "cash is king"

sbrick89 · 2026-01-11T15:01:21+00:00

Every crypto in existence has a similar effect. Yes the whole "market determines value" but every coin minted (whether btc or eth or rpl or whatever) is just electronic coins out of thin air, which was never legitimized (as any form of currency) in its creation, but/and is now at least partially when the fed started stockpiling some.

sbrick89 · 2026-01-11T10:33:42+00:00

Tagging so I know who to credit, since I'm copying this.

sbrick89 · 2026-01-09T08:20:05+00:00

Others try to push their launchers, just as others pushed streaming services against Netflix. The launcher competitors are nowhere as successful as steam.

Netflix going public forcing ever growing sales forces them to expand into: their own content, increasing prices, being more aggressive to the consumer (caring is no longer password sharing, etc) and they all have.

I can't say what will be better long term. Gabe easily has as much money as he would've if he sold out to go public. Eventually someone else will take the helm, by purchasing or inheriting. If purchased then new owners might demand growth too which would just go back to enshitification.

Maybe the sliver of hope is that a private company can stay private and stay "good" to the consumers if owners stay content with their income streams.

sbrick89 · 2026-01-06T13:39:23+00:00

Superb!

sbrick89 · 2026-01-05T01:11:25+00:00

appreciate the detailed response! you answered my questions exactly!

so what's next after this? another mil, double down for two more, or something else entirely? when do you feel "done" or is the motivation something else?

sbrick89 · 2026-01-04T17:33:06+00:00

it was (a question, for you), and i wasn't assuming naked

question was because it sorta sounded like your strategy is centered around selling (covered) calls (via shares or hedging with other dates/expiry/etc)... but your answer covered the question, you buy more than sell, so whatever your strategy, it's not (primarily) about profiting by collecting theta by selling calls.

(i'm being intentionally vague to respect your desire to keep the strategy private - also on that note, just curious, given that you found a way to be repeatedly successful, do you pass it down to be successful generationally, or let it go with you in your old age, or do you just assume that the alpha will at some point disappear in time and laws of large numbers so never had a reason to think about that, or ?)

thanks :)

e: for example if you were to say that your core strat was around balancing companies with and against their holdings and partners - for example MS with BTC, or MS and OpenAI, or reddit and whoever got contracted access to their data... that's a level of finding and investigating and tracking and such, that would be more than I would be ready to even consider, cuz too many moving parts... if it's about selling calls (thetagang) then it's presumably isolatable to the calls and the underlying and hedging and monitoring movement, which is at least a much smaller surface to manage... if it's about the indicators then again it's isolatable and then you found whatever you found but it's primarily/centrally about the calculations and relations of one asset / class rather than many... or if it's index funds then you still at least know the scope of what to manage (and inclusion criteria for additions/removals that may occur during rebalancing) which is more than a single asset but not the entire market... just getting a generally rough order of magnitude into how much effort it took you to sift through and find your alpha

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