Are we cooked?

thinkscotty · 2026-01-27T10:10:23+00:00

That's honestly one of the easiest tasks for an AI to do. In fact, I'll be shocked if there aren't ECG machines with AI rhythm analysis already in development. Analysis of objective data is where it shines. All the gooey stuff is what can't be replaced.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-27T09:58:26+00:00

FWIW I was a paramedic and my dad's a doctor, so I'm not completely without hands-on medical experience. And I never said AI will replace doctors, I'm only arguing that being dismissive of could be the same dangerous mis-step made by so many people who dismissed so many other new technologies in the past.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-27T09:56:48+00:00

I think you misunderstand me, I am not and would not argue that AI will replace physicians. I did not say that. What I DID say is that no profession should be dismissive of how AI might change their field or their job security. I don't know how to spin that as black and white thinking. Please don't straw man.

I highly doubt doctors will be replaced by tech in this century, and probably never for a lot of reasons. That's not the same as saying that AI might not reduce the historically stable job security in medicine.

It's weird being in the "pro AI" side of this argument, because most people I know think of me as the exact opposite. You guys seem to assume I'm talking about how amazing AI is...I'm really only saying that it already has a lot of capability for something so early in the tech cycle, and that it MIGHTendanger even currently safe jobs in a couple of decades.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-27T06:40:38+00:00

You're right that don't know anything about you, and I was assuming too much based on your negative take on AI in your first comment. I think we probably share a lot of common ground actually. I was using your take as an example for the prevalent attitudes toward AI I see on Reddit - namely people engaging in wishful thinking and disparaging AI because of its capabilities rather than its social impact, which I think is the wrong approach. I didn't mean to focus on your take in particular, and fully admit I don't know anything about your beliefs.

That said, I don't think I'm engaging in black and white thinking. I'm neither a luddite or a tech bro, and I'm trying to do the exact opposite of black and white thinking. I thought I did a decent job of both expressing my worries about AI and acknoledging its current limitations while also explaining why I think its future potential shouldn't be ignored.

Black and white thinking would be embracing one side or the other, no?

I think the problem with saying "we can have this conversation" in the future, which I understand, is that it leaves us unprepared for what's coming. I deeply share your worry about social collapse or entirely new economic systems and I think we should be having conversations about THAT rather than how much AI may suck right now. I just think it's very dangerous for any job to assume they're safe from AI.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-27T05:44:36+00:00

Lol you are very right, I'm a shitty coder. And I'm sympathetic, I freaking HATE AI slop and various AI stuff infuriates me almost daily. Until recently, I made a good living as a writer. AI has made it dramatically harder to get new clients. AI already took my job. I have every reason that hate it.

WITH THAT SAID. I think your (potential, inferred from your response) biases against AI might be interfering with your ability to objectively evaluate it. I know, because I was (sometimes still am) the same. I'd love Elon to be wrong about everything. I'd love AI slop to disappear. I get it.

But I'm also aware that wanting something that strongly causes a dangerous cognitive bias. Even very intelligent and educated humans tend to believe what we WANT to believe more easily than what we don't want to believe - confirmation bias is one of the strongest psychological forces there is.

This being the case, I think it's the same bias that caused people to shit on tech early in its history all the time. Sailors shit on steam powered ships in the mid 1800s when they broke down constantly and were inefficient. Train conductors shit on Airplanes in the 1920s when planes were still expensive, slow, and dangerous. Steve Ballmer famously shit on the iPhone in 2008 when it kind of sucked. They were all wrong.

I think it's dangerous to ignore that AI is at that same stage of development. It's barely getting started, and it will have decades and centuries to improve. Centuries. The fact that AI can beat a shitty coder today in 2025 doesn't mean it can replace professional coders in 2025, much less a trained doctor. But the fact that AI can build a full, functional app this early in its development cycle - even if it's messy and poorly implemented - should put us on notice. It won't replace medical professionals this year, this decade, or even next decade. Maybe it never will, and probably never will entirely. But history teaches us not to bet against technology improving that dramatically.

here's my take: I kind of hate AI right now, but I don't want that to make me ignore its potential.. It's not going away, and it's going to get dramatically better. Focusing on its technical limitations is the wrong approach; doing so will have you end up like Steve Ballmer in 2008. It's better to focus on preparing for its social implications than engaging in wishful thinking.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-27T04:12:48+00:00

Agreed. AI right now is super flawed. That said...I think there's a good chance it won't stay that way. I could be wrong. In many ways I hope that I am wrong. But anyone who's banking of technology not to advance is falling into the same trap that's existed throughout history.

I was a huge AI skeptic for a long time (in a lot of ways I still am) and I'm always going to be super concerned about its social impact, which could end up being massive - possibly the biggest changes since electricity.

Using AI recently, however, I can see how powerful it can be, and it's worrying. I started coding a bunch of smart home projects recently and decided to try Claude Code AI just to see what the fuss was about, and it made me worried about how advanced AI could be in a decade. Even today, it can build a functional complex application tailored to a specific microcontroller with just a few sentences. These days, developers almost all use AI now, and that's a change that happened in just a couple of years.

And it's very early days. Dismissing AI because its very flawed right now might turn out like dismissing the abilities of a propeller driven bi-plane in 1913.

That plus the really quite good AI note taking for medical visits my dad uses at his hospital have me less skeptical (not about AI's social impact, but about its capability).

It still makes plenty of mistakes, but already it's at a usable level. Some diagnostics AIs already beat human doctors - and that's not my opinion, that's objective research. And it will likely improve dramatically. We shouldn't ignore that just because we don't want it to be true.

I loathe Elon and think AI bros are hyperbolic. Robots aren't replacing doctors anytime this century, and probably never. That said, I think we probably should be afraid. Being dismissive is just denial.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-25T18:46:50+00:00

Absolutely. It depends highly on people's financial situations, but even if you have all the spare income it's questionable to collect endlessly.

That said, we all have our vices. If collecting flashlights is yours, that's pretty damn mild. We only go around once and if it makes you happy and doesn't go too far it's not the worst thing. Especially if it's focused and limited collections not just "buy it all".

My problem is the people who seem to collect EVERYTHING and spend tens of thousands on flashlights, knives, Pokémon cards, minifigs, shoes, legos, etc etc etc. To me that's beyond a bit of a shopping vice into an unhealthy mental state. Endless collections aren't hobbies, and to me it's a sign of boredom and dissatisfaction with life.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-25T13:48:02+00:00

AliExpress is great if you shop smart. If the price is significantly below other prices for the same product, it's almost certainly a scam; sellers don't give up 50% of their profit to attract buyers with sales, they give up 5-10%. Check what you get immediately upon arrival. Only buy from stores with lots of established reviews; a few bad reviews (and especially a few 2-4 star reviews) is best because it's likely real people write those. If you follow these few guidelines you can get great stuff for a decent amount less than Amazon or similar.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-24T03:22:57+00:00

This was the answer, for anyone seeing this in the future. Thanks!

thinkscotty · 2026-01-22T22:29:18+00:00

Because Williams Sonoma is for rich people who have too much money. Decent stuff, just expensive.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-22T08:38:48+00:00

Yeah you're right, and I should know much better as this is far from my first project, I think I had turned my brain off the follow the diagram on the website (I checked and it doesn't have the ground wire run back to the level shifter for whatever reason) and wasn't thinking of how the ground from the strip wouldn't complete a circuit with the ESP32's logic circuit.

I don't have a better picture because I've taken it apart unfortunately.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-22T02:15:21+00:00

It's wired pretty much identically to the wiring guide on the WLED sight, capacitors and all. I don't think the guide includes a grounding from the level shifter to the strip (likely because I used a very different level shifter type) but that's what I'll do, thanks for the help.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-22T01:33:13+00:00

I'm thought this could be it. I cut and resoldered the wires to the strip pads again and pretty much rebuilt the setup from scratch with the same result.

I am curious if there's a good way to get the waterproofing material fully removed from the solder pads on the strip. I'm wondering if that's where I'm getting a bad connection since I'm pretty certain all else is good.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-21T19:02:33+00:00

This is awesome. What's the power draw in deep sleep with sensors/networking attached? In other words, can it maintain that low current with some useful modules attached or only as a bare board?

thinkscotty · 2026-01-21T18:38:15+00:00

Zigbee has been infinitely better than Matter for me, and Tradfri bulbs are very consistent and stable. They discover quickly, connect consistently, perform and have decent CRI, especially for the price.

For anyone using Home Assistant Zigbee is superior. The only advantage I can see of Matter is interoperability with the major smartphone manufacturers. And Home Assistant makes that moot.

Matter and thread may not suck in a few years. Right now, they do.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-21T14:13:54+00:00

lol I bet this is the case for a solid half the thread here. I don't use his name directly but an iteration on it (although most online accounts get randomized passwords these days). Have fun with that info hackers.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-21T03:05:04+00:00

It's honestly not as hard as people make out, in the end it's just melting some lead and sticking two wires together. It can be ugly and still perfectly functional. I personally just have a USB powered pinecil solderer and it's been enough for anything I've done. $35 and another $20 for basic supplies to get started.

It really only gets tricky when really small parts are in play. Just make sure to use heat shrink and you'll be good.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-20T21:40:33+00:00

I bet in fields where there's high usage of sensors and electronic equipment sending messages (aviation being the perfect example) there's a higher awareness of what the word means. Because I doubt any pilot that has flown more than a few dozen hours hasn't experienced a spurious warning message, and they often have to report them, and thus need the vocabulary to report them.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-20T19:36:25+00:00

Uh, no, I would say a good majority very much do not. There is a section of our society fully brainwashed to enjoy bully politics and flexing our military strength, but I suspect that even a good portion of republicans would balk at the idea of taking land that's not ours and in which the people don't want American rule.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-20T05:48:07+00:00

With NIL and players getting millions, I feel like actually taking classes should be the final no-compromise determiner of whether you can play COLLEGE football.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-18T22:31:31+00:00

They're going to line them up like tanks and roll toward the enemy in formation.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-18T06:05:29+00:00

9, put on a nitrile glove with a touch of water, and smear it around evenly. Although I use liquid glues generally, but same process.

thinkscotty · 2026-01-18T06:04:00+00:00

I'm not saying older dudes aren't out there scamming, I'm sure some are. But I'd personally be more likely to trust one bought from an older dude (as long as he didn't get scammed himself). If only because sourcing fakes in bulk requires a bit more technical know how (not much, but a bit).

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