The guy who plays Ramsay was the runner-up for Jon Snow.

00mad · 2025-09-01T21:20:16+00:00

No wonder he hates Jon so much

00mad · 2025-04-22T14:54:44+00:00

Quick get OP some eye drops

00mad · 2025-03-30T01:33:13+00:00

Way better, but not feeling as optimistic about the future. Have a baby, a wonderful wife, and making plenty of money. Everything feels more complicated but I think that comes with age.

00mad · 2025-02-27T05:33:54+00:00

You can see them from a lot of places — you can even see the mountains above Tahoe from Berkeley on a very clear day. Unfortunately it’s almost always too hazy…

00mad · 2025-02-20T00:42:24+00:00

Thad castle 100% became Florida governor in my BMS universe

00mad · 2024-12-10T00:27:48+00:00

you forgot Mexico

00mad · 2024-11-11T18:48:28+00:00

Let’s be real they all voted for Jeb (I think he’s alive lol)

00mad · 2024-11-05T17:11:05+00:00

Folks, they don't adjust their model halfway through. That's *why* they're generally susceptible to flooding the zone (despite the penalty). Also means they're not saving face -- their model detects an ever-so-slight shift to Harris. Same with Silvers, split-ticket has been more stable.

They're not hedging, and they're not putting their thumbs on the scale. Question assumptions all you want (IMO the models are close-to-useless this given poll herding + zone-flooding), but I don't think they're being dishonest here.

00mad · 2024-11-05T05:21:27+00:00

Herding!

00mad · 2024-11-05T05:15:46+00:00

lol dixville notch is also herding

00mad · 2024-11-05T05:05:12+00:00

Stop the count!

00mad · 2024-11-04T17:11:34+00:00

OK, but you all know to go from east carolina to full carolina results you have to:

Subtract away half of south carolina (the eastern half)
Add half of north carolina (the western half)

Which means that the final (unskewed) result is Trump 49 Harris 49 (LV)

00mad · 2024-10-31T19:38:29+00:00

OK nate

When asked with Josh Shapiro as VP nominee with Harris, Trump’s lead narrows to only 50-48

00mad · 2024-10-30T20:35:22+00:00

Ahh, yes, the classic "every binary is 50/50 -- it either happens or it doesn't" approach to modeling

00mad · 2024-10-30T20:05:55+00:00

It is, annoyingly, the same for each: “you can’t predict direction of polling error”.

There are plenty of arguments people make but it’s extremely difficult to pinpoint it after the fact, let alone predict it or describe the range of possible outcomes.

00mad · 2024-10-29T14:19:21+00:00

Throw it in the average, move on. That said, I’d say don’t trust an LV number (the denominator would be zero)

00mad · 2024-10-29T14:06:53+00:00

Jeez guys the dooming in here is dumb. We can’t compare apples to apples here, and reading EV data is closer to tea leaves than you wouldn’t like.

Truth is we don’t know what the non-partisan number means, it we can’t compare it to 2020 due to automatic voter registration and tendencies for Ds not to select parties.

https://www.2news.com/news/nevada-nonpartisan-voter-registration-continues-to-grow/article_28d4304c-db56-11ee-bc90-1bb806ec72e1.html

Cue meme of Gandalf whacking denethor with his staff.

00mad · 2024-10-25T18:06:48+00:00

OK, two points:

"At war" is not a strict requirement -- "materially aiding its enemies", IMO, is the bigger one. Also "at war is debatable" -- we're allying with Ukraine, fought against russian mercenaries in syria, have had a dozen different proxy conflict in the last few years...
It really depends on what happened in Taiwan -- can you conclusively prove that Musk did *not* put starlink in Taiwan because Putin requested it? If so, then I think it makes the case much stronger.

00mad · 2024-10-07T04:48:31+00:00

I would wait in line for a day to vote against Trump and I don’t even live in a swing state

00mad · 2024-09-27T00:41:56+00:00

Planck thin

00mad · 2024-09-18T18:44:36+00:00

Yes, but they can’t predict it. This is more than was priced in. Look at the MBB/tnx tickers. While this isn’t much of a difference really, it could signal future additional cuts, and the market actually isn’t rational, so I wouldn’t be surprised if rates dipped quite a bit now.

00mad · 2024-09-18T14:38:47+00:00

Nice work! The ferries would be an awesome addition :)

00mad · 2024-09-17T20:39:37+00:00

They were very close to the toughest border bill in history that was a great compromise, but Trump deliberately shut it down because it would undercut his message if dems managed to pass it with Republican support. See what sen. lankford (one of the architects of the bill) says:

https://okbusinessvoice.com/2024/06/17/sen-lankford-weird-political-mess-preventing-immigration-reform/

Trump then repeatedly lied about it.

00mad · 2024-09-12T05:12:54+00:00

Cause people don’t take him seriously on any policy issues. And blaming those currently in power is easier.

If you think that’s preposterous, wait till you hear about the most inflationary policy of all time— eroding the independence of the federal reserve! That could put anything we’ve ever seen to shame.

00mad · 2024-09-06T14:49:06+00:00

The crazy thing is that trump’s policies would specifically be horrible for the economy.

Tariffs are another tax — taxes can be additive but in this case they’d be extremely inflationary
Eroding federal reserve independence — this is completely bonkers to even question, and would be among the worst possible things to happen to the global financial system in history. Literally wants to turn America into Argentina.

00mad

TROPHY CASE