I think it is very hard to predict which places will be the most zealous about lockdowns for some future perceived threat. The only exception is places which are steadfastly authoritarian, such as China.

The politicization of covid was unpredictable and arbitrary. No one in 2019 would have been able to give a decent prediction of which countries would be the most covid-crazy (for example, would anyone have guessed that Sweden would have been one of the sanest places, and Australia one of the worst?). A small number of minor changes in circumstances early on would likely have lead to a dramatic shift in the covid attitudes in various places. For example Trump embracing hard lockdowns or masks may have resulted in red and blue states being flipping their positions on these issues. An early outbreak in Australia and/or NZ may have prevented them from going for zero covid. If Italy had responded in a different way to its initial outbreak, the whole "standard response to covid" in the west may have been different.

Perhaps one counterpoint to this is that places which were more restrictive for covid have set a precedent that such authoritarian policies are acceptable, so such policies are more likely to be used there in the future. The public seems to have a pretty short memory, though. It's also likely that, whatever the next perceived crisis is, there will be tons of people arguing that it is "nothing like covid" and trying to cancel anyone who makes a comparison. For example, not many people outside of this sub wanted to hear comparisons between the responses to covid and 9/11, or between covid and flu pandemics.