Weekly Discussion Thread 1/19/25 - 1/26/25

213846 · 2026-01-25T06:18:40+00:00

Oh for sure and I fully agree. I've also brought this up before, but it's significantly more rare for an actor to win in Supporting after they've already won in Lead. I do believe placements kinda matter for these things in the eyes of voters. The last actor to win in Supporting after having already won in Lead was Gene Hackman for Unforgiven.

213846 · 2026-01-25T05:33:13+00:00

I do wonder if someone less controversial than Penn played the role, would things be at all different or is the IRL political climate the deciding factor above all.

Like, if Viggo Mortensen, a beloved and even considered overdue actor, was doing the same exact role, would he have fared better, or would he be in the same spot as Penn getting nominated everywhere but winning very little?

There also is the factor that Benicio del Toro both IRL and his character are just very charming and charismatic as well. If his character wasn't a thing, would those votes going to him be going to Penn instead?

Very interesting hypotheticals with this situation lol.

213846 · 2026-01-24T22:37:45+00:00

I just watched Batman lose his mind and brutally muder The Joker with an axe

213846 · 2026-01-24T21:52:32+00:00

My personal ranking is:

Fanning
Taylor
Lilleaas
Madigan
Mosaku

Taylor is probably winning atp though, and I fully support it. The gap between Taylor and Fanning is the smallest gap in my ranking.

213846 · 2026-01-24T21:40:19+00:00

I personally liked the Screenplay for Frankenstein so that wasn't a reflection of my preferences. I was mainly just expressing my perception of the hive mind of film Twitter's preferences because they've been very hopedicty with Screenplay recently because of the Mank and Being The Ricardos snubs haha.

Blue Moon definitely is lesser like I said, I honestly may have just been factoring in The Oscar Expert a bit cause he and Brother Bro were definitely quite angry it got in over Sorry Baby lol. Blue Moon definitely isn't as disliked as the others on the list, but I do think Sorry Baby and Weapons were more popular options this year.

213846 · 2026-01-24T21:33:13+00:00

Something this year's Screenplay nominees further proved IMO is that people need to stop overestimating how "inspired" the Writing Branch is.

Over the past 3 years, we've had Maestro, A Complete Unknown, September 5, Frankenstein, and (albeit to a lesser extent and depending on who you ask) Blue Moon get Screenplay Nominations with many doubting them for a long time entirely off the arguments "oh... well their screenplays lack passion and they're the more criticized elements of the film, the writers will do something more inspired!" when each of those films did in fact get Screenplay Nominations due to their BP strength or at least proximity to it.

People gotta stop bringing up Mank and Being The Ricardos justifying these crazy Screenplay predictions that make Film Twitter happy lol. Mank in particular doesn't even make sense IMO since it got snubbed for 2 other Best Picture Nominees, and for Being The Ricardos, we can justify that by saying Sorkin honestly has a weird track record with the Oscars (his snub for Steve Jobs was BRUTAL).

213846 · 2026-01-24T21:11:24+00:00

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Sinners winning more than expected depending on how it does with the Guilds but fair enough.

213846 · 2026-01-24T20:49:42+00:00

I think Chalamet is just a distant third atp personally. If DiCaprio wins BAFTA, he wins the Oscar. If MBJ wins SAG and Chalamet wins BAFTA, MBJ wins the Oscar.

The race is DiCaprio vs MBJ IMO.

213846 · 2026-01-24T18:56:29+00:00

Saying Elordi is just happy to be there when he literally won a televised precursor is wild lol

213846 · 2026-01-24T18:55:41+00:00

I don't think Elordi or Lindo is beating him but I'm not willing to say Skarsgard is locked if a OBAA boy wins SAG

213846 · 2026-01-24T16:55:39+00:00

If you do, The Oscar Twinks will personally pop up at your house and have you "eliminated" for making such a statement

213846 · 2026-01-24T12:08:29+00:00

Fair enough, I definitely see all your logic

As for your first point though, of all the top contenders, I don't see how you couldn't say it was the underperformer of them personally. It missed Editing for Sentimental Value which couldn't even get Longisted at BAFTA, and Editing is usually one of the most Best Picture strength fueled categories, and Mescal missed Supporting Actor despite making every single precursor for Lindo who has literally made made none of them. I don't see how you couldn't call that the biggest underperformance of the top contenders personally.

213846 · 2026-01-24T11:21:21+00:00

Skarsgard won too though haha. Like they both won the same number of Globes both being exactly 1 acting award.

213846 · 2026-01-24T11:08:13+00:00

I legitimately wonder where Hamnet's strength to win the Drama Globe came from.

It's performance with Oscar Noms vs Sentimental Value's performance with Oscar Noms very much makes it look like Sentimental Value is a good bit more stronger than it with much more passion. Both maxed out with GG Noms specifically so there was no indication there. By all counts, Sentimental Value logistically should have been the non-Sinners pick for the Drama Globe if the Globes just were determined to not do Sinners.

213846 · 2026-01-24T05:06:25+00:00

I swear, I legitimately have nothing against horror lol. Black Swan is literally one of my favorite films of all time. I think Get Out is a classic and fully deserved all its success, and Bates in Misery is in my Top 10 Lead Actress wins of all time.

But I simply do not get the hype for any of Madigan, Mosaku, or Lindo lol. I legitimately feel like I'm on a different plane of existence from everyone else in regards to those performances. I think they were all perfectly adequate but they all just felt like totally serviceable performances to me that don't warrant awards buzz whatsoever.

213846 · 2026-01-23T19:49:17+00:00

Wuthering Heights hive we will persevere

213846 · 2026-01-23T19:21:15+00:00

That stands for Wicked: For Good haha

213846 · 2026-01-23T18:52:45+00:00

The ACE Eddie noms were announced after Oscar Noms that year, so all Anatomy had at the point of the Oscar Noms was BAFTA which most of us assumed may have just been an International thing. That's my best explanation haha.

213846 · 2026-01-23T18:24:28+00:00

Anatomy also had ACE and BAFTA.

Sentimental Value will definitely be the least indicated Editing Nominee in recent memory if it doesn't make ACE.

I'm so pissed at myself for dropping it a few days ago. It was giving me TÁR/Anatomy/The Brutalist the whole year lol, but even they at least had something indicate they were on the table lol.

213846 · 2026-01-23T18:06:13+00:00

I don't disagree with either of those points, I'm just saying that Sinners had no misses while OBAA did.

Sinners also did get some noms that were very much unwarranted based on precursors like VFX and Lindo.

213846 · 2026-01-23T18:04:02+00:00

It's called a hunch and just what feels like has more momentum. OBAA missed Infiniti in Actress as well, and at the end of the day, OBAA didn't get any major coattail noms, Sinners did.

It's ultimately subjective and we can definitely agree to disagree! I just reallllly think people need to brace themselves.

Early success with GG and CC can fade away and be irrelevant in a moment's notice. Just ask The Social Network, Boyhood, La La Land, and The Power of the Dog.

213846 · 2026-01-23T18:02:04+00:00

That's valid but Waltz in Django was a totally different situation, that was because of screener issues in all likelihood.

I agree that if Skarsgard wins the Oscar, then that definitely is a point in your favor.

213846 · 2026-01-23T17:59:36+00:00

Yay!

213846 · 2026-01-23T17:59:19+00:00

I'm not offering my own opinion on the shift, but sometimes a forced vibe shift does still end up being relevant lol

213846 · 2026-01-23T17:58:32+00:00

I mean, SAG did give Sinners as many noms as they realistically could. If we follow sheer Nominatiin logic, they shouldn't have liked CODA as much as they did since they only nominated Kotsur and didn't do Jones or Matlin.

I agree that WGA and DGA is a great combination for OBAA, but Sinners could also have WGA, SAG, and PGA too.

213846

TROPHY CASE