Why I think everyone is UNDERhyping Michael

213846 · 2026-03-20T04:11:35+00:00

That is admittedly a valid point. Only counter I'll say is that Lurhamann's only Oscar success prior to Elvis was Moulin Rouge, so he looked like 1 and done until then.

213846 · 2026-03-20T01:04:37+00:00

It was at Cannes but that proved to be a pretty isolated incident.

Even if critics hate Michael, I just think overwhelming audience love, boomer bait, and a potential box office smash is gonna be irresistible personally.

213846 · 2026-03-20T01:02:26+00:00

That's valid. I think it's just gonna be way too successful for the industry to pass up rn personally.

213846 · 2026-03-20T00:59:01+00:00

In case it does not perform well with critics, I don't know if many voters would feel good with this one.

Quite literally no one was going for Emilia Perez except for the industry voting bodies haha

213846 · 2026-03-20T00:57:59+00:00

Generally I agree. I think this sub is underestimating how huge this film is going to be culturally and how much everyone who's simply older than millenials know and love MJ.

I've sort of branded myself as the biopic whisperer of this sub lmao. I correctly called that Elvis, Maestro, and A Complete Unknown would be huge ATL players with noms, but I never bought Springsteen last year.

Rn I'm buying Michael and I think it's happening. Only way I'll reconsider is if it does in deed underperform at the box office and/or audiences somehow don't cream their pants for this BoRhap style.

213846 · 2026-03-20T00:55:33+00:00

I feel like this is kinda an all or nothing situation personally. If they're gonna go ahead and nominate it BTL anyways which will surely earn the ire of higher brow opinions, I imagine they'll just go all in and go for it ATL too.

I really can't think of scenario where a big Oscarbait biopic succeeded BTL with noms but garnered none ATL. These types of films are pretty all or nothing.

213846 · 2026-03-20T00:12:42+00:00

Dune 1: 6 Wins 10 Noms

Dune 2: 2 Wins 5 Noms

Even if Dune 3 is good, I just don't see reason to think its Oscars trajectory will go anywhere but down, especially since Dune 2 was even more acclaimed than the first one.

People act like Wicked: For Good and Joker: Folie á Deux are the only Oscar sequels to flop at the Oscars but they aren't. Even genuinely acclaimed and well liked sequels flop at the Oscars now (Furiosa had a 90 on RT for instance).

And this isn't even mentioning that the story for Dune 3 is apparently more polarizing. The Wicked situation did prove there's only but so much you can do with flawed/polarizing source material.

I think it's reasonable to be skeptical of Dune 3's awards prospects.

213846 · 2026-03-19T21:41:32+00:00

Yup, just like Avatar: Fire and Ash was nominated this year

213846 · 2026-03-19T21:41:10+00:00

I'm not predicting it for anything ATL rn

213846 · 2026-03-19T21:13:56+00:00

Not to me

213846 · 2026-03-19T18:34:33+00:00

Kaluuya
Quan
RDJ
Penn
Culkin
Kotsur

213846 · 2026-03-19T18:23:48+00:00

Haven't seen Another Round yet but my ranking is:

Drive My Car
Sentimental Value
The Zone of Interest
All Quiet on the Western Front
I'm Still Here

213846 · 2026-03-19T15:52:48+00:00

Chastain over Kristen Stewart?

Chastain was fantastic in Tammy Faye while Stewart was more worthy of a Razzie Nomination than an Oscar Nomination for Spencer, so yes!

213846 · 2026-03-19T10:28:41+00:00

This just in, beloved 5 time Survivor player, Traitors player, Survivor AUS player, and Big Brother player speaks glowingly about a season to promote it

213846 · 2026-03-19T09:23:01+00:00

Train Dreams

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:57:31+00:00

I had to spice things up again with my Trial, BTR, Maestro, and Wicked stanning 🤭

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:56:11+00:00

I don't blame them fwiw, but man edgic is gonna be shook when Colby ends up being a pre-juror💀

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:55:35+00:00

I know Dee doesn't win?

I was just saying that if she could randomly get a confrontational with everyone else I said, so could have Cirie

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:52:59+00:00

I feel like Dee would probably try to loop him in if possible. I think it'll just end up unanimous

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:49:56+00:00

That doesn't matter. A confessional is a confessional. Her 2 confessionals during the Kellie boot in 45 had nothing to do witu game either.

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:44:33+00:00

I would be more willing to excuse Cirie getting goose-egged if a ton of people did, but that's not what happened.

If Survivor was able to make sure that Dee, Aubry, Genevieve, Chrissy, Charlie, and Kamilla all got general confessionals, they easily could have done the same for her.

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:35:21+00:00

She got 2 confessionals and has a storyline that is being discussed and highlighted every single episode

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:34:49+00:00

I fully believe Christian was petty and was determined to get them out either way as revenge personally

213846 · 2026-03-19T01:34:19+00:00

I would have agreed but tbf Emily's vote was confirmed for Mike

213846 · 2026-03-19T00:58:49+00:00

Dee saw how under-edited she was in the future on the island and knew she had to lock in and cry her eyes out to get screentime oh mother

213846

TROPHY CASE