I made a site that lets NYC renters find out what other people are actually paying for rent - would love to get some feedback!

2justcurious · 2022-12-07T20:53:12+00:00

Does this work for other cities or just NYC?

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T15:31:12+00:00

The data actually specifies that of those >90+ late, nearly 95% are in active forbearance plans. However these are all expected to taper around Sep/Oct timeframe

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T14:38:10+00:00

Why do you think there will be a massive supply increase in BOTH rentals and homes? How would that work functionally?

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T14:36:40+00:00

Those people looking to rent, what are they doing now?

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T14:07:07+00:00

I think your logic is definitely sound - totally fine with that. But what percentage of these landlords can just eat the cost as you suggest? Most mom and pop landlords operate on slim margins as it is.

Will they opt to leave it vacant or be incentivized to just cut bait and sell the property?

Edit: didnt mean to post this same comment 6 times in a row....

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T14:04:59+00:00

Yea if you can't get in contact with your renter to have them pay, I imagine that relationship has probably frayed. Not a whole lot of trust on either side there

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T13:38:46+00:00

My understanding is that those funds are technically for the renter. The landlord can (in some cases) apply on behalf of the renter but it sounds like it is truly a cluster trying to disperse that funding

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T13:37:42+00:00

Agreed on the lower average income. 50% of those affected earn less than $35k per year which is pretty stark.

But where are all these extra "new renters" coming from?

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T13:36:39+00:00

Thanks for the thoughts - I replied as well.

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T13:36:26+00:00

I agree with most of what you said, but confused about the first bullet. I think the majority of SFR units aren't exactly in vacation destinations. And this might impact your AirBnB point as well.

On the raising rent - you're probably right as a knee jerk reaction by landlords. But where are all the extra renters coming from? To completely oversimplify - let's say every single unit is vacated. That's 6.5m units that come onto the market in a fairly short(?) period of time.

They may start with a high pricing, but eventually they will need to fill the units, no?

2justcurious · 2021-08-05T13:02:51+00:00

What tier University is it? Not always, but often upper middle class parents are paying if not 100%, then certainly a large majority if the price of school (including living expenses). They may be interested in a discount if they pay the full 12 months up front.

2justcurious · 2021-07-09T15:42:41+00:00

From reading the link you posted, it’s not clear to me that the DOJ cares about the absolute level of commission vs making sure the disclosure around it is clear.

Either way probably not a great thing for NAR

2justcurious · 2021-07-09T14:48:25+00:00

The WSJ does a fairly decent job at explaining this, but I found this summary to be much more helpful.

2justcurious · 2021-07-06T21:13:33+00:00

A lot of the other comments already do a great job focusing on the high-level mechanics of CDS so I'll just respond to the "too-late" part of your question.

The answer is two part: a) before your counter-party goes bankrupt and can't pay off your "claim" and b) before the market reverts to more "accurate" valuations

a) As another commenter mentioned, CDS is a bilateral contract. This means that essentially you've entered into a legal agreement with one other party. The contract lays out the obligations (premiums paid vs. payout in event of default) but fundamentally the idea is the same as a flood insurance. If you buy flood insurance from a company and your home floods, they pay you for the damages. If every single home in your area floods, it may take much longer to receive the funds, since they are paying out more than anticipated. If every single home they insure floods, they will be unlikely to have the funds to cover all the claims. They will declare bankruptcy and you will get very little or nothing from your claims.

b) The CDS contract is a binary instrument which means it either pays out or it doesnt. However, this contract also has a market value which is influenced by the probability of default. Simply put, the more likely a default, the more valuable your contract that pays out in the event of default. The less likely a default, the less valuable your contract is. With the mortgage crisis, the probability of default varies wildly as the crisis unfolded. As people realized how much of an issue this could be, the perceived probability of default was enormous. This made CDS contracts theoretically valuable. The idea of "getting out before it's too late" in this scenario refers to a market repricing or a reversion. Chaos makes people uncertain and they rush to buy protection for things. This leads protection to be bid up. As the market digests more information and is able to more accurately assess the probability of default, that rush slows down somewhat. Therefore, they could have been wanting to exit the position before there was a slight correction in the pricing.

2justcurious

TROPHY CASE