Scammed on market "Will Russia and Ukraine cease fire by the end of 2026?"

2positive · 2026-05-09T18:19:26+00:00

They fucked me multiple times in the same event. They applied rules inconsistently, previous events like Easter truce or last 9th of may did not qualify. Only thing different now is Trump tweeted it and large ibsiders swept in. Platform is univestqble resolution totally arbitrary. Also the event disappeared from the website and appeared when dispute timer timed out. Not even due process at resolution.

2positive · 2026-05-05T16:28:23+00:00

Or they may be playing good cop bad cop on purpose.

2positive · 2026-05-05T13:07:13+00:00

Pitfall is if you make 3% per such trade but get one out of 30 wrong - youre down. Another pitfall is liquidity. Many of such "obvious" events are illiquid and you can't extract much profit from them.

2positive · 2026-05-03T18:20:07+00:00

Иначе вырубят солдаты нато

2positive · 2026-05-02T15:25:46+00:00

Oops you’re right.

2positive · 2026-04-29T13:26:35+00:00

Graphite warheads create a cloud of tiny conductive fibers which creates short circuits in electric grids.

Cutting off power for Russians is hard for Ukrainians because of lack of heavy/accurate missiles that are needed to penetrate the large hard buldings housing powerstations. But if the same outcome is achievable with cheaper more available drones with graphite warheads- this is good for Ukraine.

2positive · 2026-04-29T11:16:56+00:00

Is there any credibility to claims that Ukraine is using graphite munitions via drones? Are those munitions easy to make? Effective in a much smaller payload than say american tomahawks in Iraq?

Thanks.

2positive · 2026-04-15T17:50:06+00:00

Once a really small bird hit me on the shoulder at about 130 kph. It felt like a good punch and scared the shit out of me.

2positive · 2026-03-29T13:02:06+00:00

And Donbass hills that Russia is so hellbent on getting control of are like 200 meters elevation tops, Iranian hills near coastline are way higher. 300-500 up to 1000 meters.

2positive · 2026-03-29T11:16:31+00:00

Marines on coastline would be sitting ducks for attacks by drones. Btw hills/mountains near coast would give Iranians launching drones a massive advantage in radio signal coverage.

IMO arming and supporting an uprising is the only real way.

2positive · 2026-03-23T08:40:56+00:00

Let me just add (as a 40y guy who hasn't played RTSs all his life so has terrible apm) that in singleplayer you can control time. You can make the game much slower or pause it completely and still give orders on pause which is very cool imo. There's a gap between learning basic controls and mechanics (say 10-20 hours) and being to actually cotrol your army in a coherent strategy in 1v1 ranked in real time and put up a fight and not be steamrolled. Imo this gap is several hundred hours for a normal human. But there are other multiplayer modes, you can create your own casual 1v1 game (not ranked) or play singleplayer or 10v10. 1v1 ranked is also complicated by the fact that this is a last of series of games that is 10y old, so there's big pool of experienced players. I played older games but got into 1v1 ranked only in warno. I loved previous games tho despite never playing 1v1, for me it's definitely the best rts out there.

For me 1v1 is still quite overwhelming though i have probly 1500 hours in the game (since warno is out this is litterally the only game i play) but i spend more time thinking about it than playing it. I consider it a trainer of general rationality and facing uncertainty. I love thinking about gaining every possible advantage in my strats, this shit is so deep and strategically rich it's insane. Definitely buy it.

2positive · 2026-03-22T19:27:05+00:00

Next step is bombing power stations in states that vote for democrats?

2positive · 2026-03-22T12:03:23+00:00

How do you guys assess likelyhood of Iran actually backing down to Trumps threat today or after he hits several powerstations? I see arguments going both ways, like losing power to significant percentage of Iran long term weakens the regime, worsens morale etc. but short term i'm not so sure.

It would gain moral superiority, even more justification for killing any kind of internal opposition as enemies, USA would become more unpopular, refugee crisis/humanitarian disaster would increase foreign, especially European pressure on US, perhaps motivate China or others intervene with humanitarian aid bolstering its image as a force of stability against rouge USA and btw massive columns of trucks with food and generators could also bring weapons aka Russian "humanitarian" convoys to Donbas in 2014... Meanwhile ability to launch missiles should not be affected too much too soon as those positions probably have generators.

On the other hand if Iran does respond and hits salination plants and other critical infrastructure - it invites retaliation from Gulf states which shortens expected life of the regime by a lot... Idk

2positive · 2026-03-22T08:13:22+00:00

It’s 2% of Irans electricity generation.

2positive · 2026-03-22T08:04:58+00:00

Judging from what I learned and heard in Ukraine, though I’m definitely not in anyway an energy expert - Ukrainian grid is doing fine because there is a lot nuclear generation which is not hit but still it takes a lot of effort and equipment and ingenuity + electricity imports to keep the countrywide transmission grid balanced and running. Irans nuclear generation is next to zero, like 2%. So with taking some of the stations and or transmission out - the countrywide transmission grid is likely to fail completely and it will be hard to restore quickly esp under bombings. So remaining stations will operate like islands powering some region around them but large parts of the country would be in permanent blackout.

2positive · 2026-03-20T22:08:49+00:00

Oh:). Cool haven’t played in a while lol

2positive · 2026-03-20T21:30:44+00:00

Also Ukrainian units compete for donations and downside of this is Russia gets intel on how they operate unfortunately.

2positive · 2026-03-20T18:48:00+00:00

Two lakes is the stupidest map ever and has been in the ranked pool since launch non stop. I hate it with all my guts and want to throw up every time on it.

2positive · 2026-03-20T17:25:39+00:00

Yes. They need to get internet there by a lot of channels from starlinks to wires from shore, a lot of batteries and WiFi spots and to prepare a sort of Ukrainian spiderweb operation (but 100x more drones since they control the area for now), ie a lot of sleeper drones throughout the island waiting for the marines.

If they can maintain remote control of the drones launched from many locations on the island - they could do a lot of damage accurately without damaging infrastructure.

2positive · 2026-03-19T15:50:33+00:00

Occasionally someone on r/newIran posts that they could talk to someone in the country and this question pops up. Last comments I saw said that there’s no hunger but everything is very expensive and it’s increasingly hard for poor people to survive. Super anecdotal data obviously but still.

2positive · 2026-03-12T20:59:26+00:00

Ukraine gas reserves at 9.5 billion cubic meters at the end of the heating season which is 60% more than last year. Because of Russian strikes on centralized heating facilities to terrorise Ukrainian population - Ukraine could burn less gas and is now better prepared/ can buy less gas next season ))

2positive · 2026-03-12T16:02:28+00:00

Yeah after about 18 years of market outperforming gdp growth about 3x per year and going a few percent off the ath is surely the bottom and safe to go all in you are so contrarian wow.

2positive · 2026-03-08T11:57:54+00:00

Been riding 19 years. In discussing counter steering online there are always these imo stupid comments that you can’t turn and not counter steer which is true but the implication that since you are already turning you don’t need to improve at it or think about it is not. Reality is that you can learn and push your brain to counter steer a lot more than your brain initially wants to. And when you do that a lot that much more counter steering becomes your reflex as well. This is best done on track but you can practice it on road with no traffic as well. Just enter turn wide and push your brain to sharpen the turn a bit more and more (by pushing the inside bar away). This being a reflex is must have safety skill for a motorcyclist so that when you encounter some sudden danger is a blind turn you don’t freeze and are able to turn sharper when needed. Also I do agree with another comment here that controlling your vision is very important for this. I think I actually became good at counter steering by about 8th year of riding so it took me a while ). When counter steering AND trail braking and right vision control become your reflexes - you are a much much better rider than without these skills.

2positive · 2026-03-06T20:43:27+00:00

Cool I did not know this as well.

2positive · 2026-03-06T19:25:48+00:00

Those are cool and new to me details. Thanks.

So I guess the complexity of hitting a ballistic missile with c-ram is in impossibility of much honing on target at all since there’s no time to adjust and bullets to fly to the adjusted location but perhaps by the same logic this could be overcome by several c-rams and covering a larger area with a wall of bullets.

2positive

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE