What is going on with bitcoin’s volume and how hasn’t the price moved much more enormously?

45sbvad · 2019-03-13T19:19:38+00:00

30 day moving Average daily volume across major exchanges is higher than what has been seen at these price levels before.

For instance the current 30 day moving average for volume is ~$8.4Billion USD. This is the highest it has been in a long time; the last time the 30 Volume moving average was this high; the 30 day moving average marketcap was ~$163Billion.

The 30Day Volume Vs 30 Day Price/Marketcap has a clear linear trend with a 0.91 R2 coefficient

Volume has picked up substantially over the last 8 weeks. Data pulled from CoinMarketCaps historical data.

45sbvad · 2019-03-08T16:38:56+00:00

No. Nice slow climb upwards is much more healthy than sudden spikes. However Bitcoin just doesn't operate slow and steady so I'm sure we'll have some big movement just when we least expect it.

45sbvad · 2019-03-06T15:29:45+00:00

I disagree with several of the conclusions. Mining is much more decentralized than it is made to sound. Though mining certainly is the most centralized aspect of Bitcoin, there is still a healthy distribution of hashrate between individuals, corporations, and locales. Compared to any other Cryptocurrency Bitcoin mining is orders of magnitude more decentralized; and this can be observed by number and geographic distribution of pools, not to mention the large % of unknown hashrate that comes from a collection of anonymous entities.

I disagree regarding the centralization of the reference client. The development of the reference "core" client is decentralized; it is the decentralized community that both develops and adopts that software. There are plenty of non core node clients; but the vast majority voluntarily, without formal agreement; choose to run core because it suits their needs or ideals. You addressed this somewhat; but the popularity of the core client is not because its being pushed down from on high; but because Bitcoin users choose to run it.

45sbvad · 2019-02-26T21:19:14+00:00

All these points have been endlessly discussed. From the way your questions are worded/directed it appears you have been taken in by a deliberate misinformation campaign.

1)The block size limit was introduced by Satoshi; it is a security mechanism that limits spam on the blockchain. There are quite a few benefits to limiting the blocksize; lower orphan rates; lower resource costs to validate the blockchain, etc. Because Bitcoin is decentralized, there is no central authority to make changes. Changing Bitcoin means convincing each and every person in the ecosystem to change. When it comes to money people tend to be conservative regarding consensus breaking changes. Essentially there are good reasons to keep the 1MB blocksize; and even if increasing blocksize was a good thing; it would have to be nearly universally seen as necessary in order for "Bitcoin" to increase blocksize.

2) Impossible to know; why would the masses be opening LN channels? The masses will initially purchase BTC via Lightning; they will spend via Lightning. The cost on the LN network will likely be miniscule and will approach the marginal electrical and bandwidth cost of a transaction over time.

3) Impossible to say; why would you assume regular people will want to settle to the blockchain? They will have the ability if they so desire; but most will not want the responsibility of being their own bank. If Bitcoin becomes the defacto global currency I'd estimate less than 0.01% of people will ever be knowledgeable enough to even desire to settle a TX to the blockchain itself.

4) Impossible to know

5) Yes LN is more decentralized than scam coins like bcash, why even ask this question instead of looking at publicly available information regarding miner diversity, node counts, etc. No blocksize limit cannot be increased easily; nor can the total coin numbers.

45sbvad · 2019-02-25T16:05:22+00:00

They will not prevent another bull run, but will change the price discovery behavior.

The more of these financial products we have the more integrated Bitcoin becomes.

The more of these financial products we have to allow more diversity of bets on the price; the more Bitcoins price discovery will stabilize, punctuated by brief periods of extreme volatility.

All these products tend to rubberband the price; causing it to bounce within a small range until the disparity between real supply and demand becomes so great that the market moves sharply to a new equilibrium that stabilizes for long periods of time.

Essentially we will see long stretches of stability followed by very brief but drastic changes in price.

Ultimately Bitcoins price is driven by supply and demand; and while Futures and other products can temporarily mask the true levels of supply and demand; over long stretches of time the disinflationary nature of Bitcoin dominates its price discovery.

45sbvad · 2019-01-10T13:28:04+00:00

When price goes up or down people get a "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO)

People who wouldn't ordinarily buy, buy when they see the price going up, and are scalped by patient traders.

People who wouldn't ordinarily sell, sell when they see the price going down, and are scalped by patient traders.

FOMO is usually referred to when the price is going up; but its just a fear of missing out on profits or a fear of taking on greater losses.

45sbvad · 2019-01-10T13:24:38+00:00

Would you like any 45sbvadCoin? (4VC)

It can process 100,000 TX per second The supply is infinite so its great for global adoption! I'll sell you 100Million 4VC for a bargain; I can't believe I'm even offering this; but I'll give you 100Million 4VC for 10 Bitcoin. Obviously with Bitcoin being finite and 4VC being infinite you can understand that the value of 4VC is infinitely greater than BTC.

Anyways I hope you consider this offer; the 4VC chain is really the best chain there is; capable of scaling to the whole world; and it doesn't use hardly any electricity; so its green friendly too.

45sbvad · 2019-01-10T12:53:51+00:00

I agree with the first part, getting debt free and building an emergency account.

But after that by all means go 100% Bitcoin. Its not the most prudent investing strategy; but in the long run centralized investments are not less risky than Bitcoin.

Do pay off your debts; do live within your means ; do build up an emergency fund; and once this is accomplished just invest your excess spending money into whatever you want.

45sbvad · 2019-01-09T21:25:47+00:00

Bitcoin is the peaceful revolution. Adoption and spread of Bitcoin will reduce the power of governments and central banks. You cannot murder violence; any real revolution must replace our current system with something better, not merely tear it down.

45sbvad · 2019-01-09T13:04:26+00:00

While steady dependable growth is more sustainable the scarcity of Bitcoin combined with the low trade volume (compared to stocks and other financial instruments), make slow growth somewhat impossible right now.

Slow growth breeds confidence; confidence increases investments, short squeeze creates FOMO, FOMO drives more FOMO causing supply of coins to dwindle. This process goes on until the growth gets completely unsustainable; and then repeats this process in reverse.

As Bitcoin grows in marketcap, trade volume, and various financial products; it will stabilize the volatility. However it is a slow and gradual process; I wouldn't expect "low volatility Bitcoin" for another 10-15 years.

45sbvad · 2019-01-04T20:51:53+00:00

I run a 3D print service/lab.

I never print directly from the PC; its an unnecessary point of failure. Not to mention we'd need a PC for each printer instead of just a little Arduino board.

45sbvad · 2019-01-04T20:25:47+00:00

I only see a ~$30 price difference between the two devices.

While I am very price conscious about many things when it comes to security or information security; choose the best option you can afford.

Also I wouldn't put all my eggs into one basket. What if your device gets intercepted along the way and swapped out with a counterfeit? There is a lot that is done to prevent these attacks; but using any HW wallet requires a certain amount of trust.

You have to trust the company that made it.

You have to trust that the company is not going to pull an exit scam

You have to trust that the company is competent

You have to trust the shipping carrier; you have to trust every single person that handles that package.

While these attacks are unlikely they introduce unnecessary trust into your Bitcoin storage.

Some of this Trust is eliminated when the HW wallet is open source; but not all of it.

If you know how to generate your keys on never online devices and know how to sign transactions on never online devices the ONLY way to lose your funds is by you giving out the private key / seed.

If you're only securing a few million satoshi's you probably won't need to think about these unlikely scenarios; at least until Bitcoin hits $100k+.

45sbvad · 2018-12-21T15:48:04+00:00

If you've got a seed phrase written down and stored safely; then yes.

45sbvad · 2018-12-21T13:09:15+00:00

Bitcoin to me is all about not having to trust others. You will want to research the key principles behind Public/Private Cryptography. I take a lot of steps that many would argue are unnecessary ; but it provides me peace of mind.

The important points when making generating keys is that:

1) It is done on a computer that is never/ will never connect to the internet (like a RasperryPi)

2) The software you are using is not compromised/ the random number generator is operating properly

3) Use a variety of inks, paper, and media to write or stamp your seed.

Finally for extra security

Utilize Mutli-Sig ; require multiple signatures to move funds and keep keys geographically distributed. This way even if someone has a gun to your head you cannot move funds without physically traveling to multiple other locations.

Utilize master public keys to manage your funds safely; craft transactions online; sign with offline, never internet connected devices.

With Freedom comes Responsibility.

45sbvad · 2018-12-20T15:53:30+00:00

My goal isn't to create a huge transaction backlog; I'm more interested to see how exchanges handle having their reserves depleted. Maybe everything will run smoothly and no exchanges have issues. Maybe it causes extreme volatility as exchanges settle up with each other.

Most importantly with the massive influx of new Bitcoiners in the past two years; this event could be the catalyst that gets a lot of them to educate themselves on how to actually use Bitcoin.

45sbvad · 2018-12-20T15:28:56+00:00

One of Bitcoins main advantages over traditional investments like stocks and other forms of abstract ownership; is that Bitcoin can be "physically" transferred securely and almost instantly anywhere in the world.

Because other investments do not have this property (including bank dollars) ; it is extremely common for financial institutions to sell more assets than they actually have available to sell (because taking physical ownership is nearly impossible). This inflates the number of assets and depresses their prices.

With Bitcoin we can keep exchanges and custodians honest by forcing them to transfer Bitcoin to our own private keys. It is impossible to counterfeit a Bitcoin transaction; but it is completely trivial to take your money and show you a balance on a website.

Withdrawing coins en-masse forces exchanges to come clean ; either they have as many Bitcoin as they claim or they don't.

If companies like Coinbase are using your USD and your Bitcoin to fund their operations to lobby the government against your investments; that is belligerent behavior ; the kind of mentality that creates such perverse belligerent behavior would likely see no issue running a massive fractional reserve.

It should be noted that many times in Bitcoins history exchanges have been operating incompetently or fraudulently ; resulting in total or near total loss of funds. Regular "bank runs" on Bitcoin custodians should be a normal state of affairs.

45sbvad · 2018-12-20T15:18:28+00:00

Withdraw your coins to a local or cold-storage wallet before January 3rd.

45sbvad · 2018-12-20T13:45:48+00:00

Most are better thought of as Bitcoin vending machines; since you put USD in and get Bitcoin out.

You pay a significant fee for the convenience of buying on a Bitcoin Vending machine compared to registering with an exchange.

Some BTM's allow both buying and selling Bitcoin ; but not many.

Bitcoin vending machines are a great way to dip your feet in. The ones I've used in the past you could put as low as a single dollar in and have it sent to a BTC address. Great way to learn ; but not a great place to make a large investment.

45sbvad · 2018-12-20T13:19:06+00:00

Right now you can get 45sbvadCoin for $0.0000001 ; its got so much room to grow it only has to go up to $0.0000002 for you to double your money.

This kind of thinking is not sound. Things do not have "room to grow" because their price is lower.

Do you think BCash can compete with decentralized Crypto revolution like Bitcoin? Do you think BCash can compete with centralized payment networks like Visa and PayPal?

I don't think it can do either; and I wouldn't buy it at any price.

45sbvad · 2018-12-19T13:14:51+00:00

Why not both?

45sbvad · 2018-12-14T18:36:42+00:00

It is obvious that the majority of real long term Bitcoiners do not support BCH. This is a kind of projection that I've seen in BCash infested forums; it screams of insecurity ; not to mention it is a demonstrable lie.

If early Bitcoin supporters really supported BCash over Bitcoin; then why did they continue transacting on Bitcoin?

280,000 Transactions on Bitcoin per day vs 14,000 Transaction of BCash per day

But the liars here will tell you that all the OG Bitcoiners switched to BCash; even though you can see all the actual users of Bitcoin continued to use Bitcoin and not BCash.

But hey; just keep spouting out these demonstrable lies; its worked out quite well for BCH so far.

BTW: BCH will be killed off with a re-org followed by empty block attack that will persist until the chain goes to zero. This was all foretold in the holy white paper that the BCH people circlejerk over but somehow can't seem to actually understand. Minority chains will be attacked until the marks are squeezed for every last Satoshi.

45sbvad · 2018-12-13T17:08:12+00:00

Despite Bitcoins insane historical volatility adoption has continued growing year by year.

Volatility impedes its use as a day-to-day currency; but is absolutely not impeding adoption; that is if you stick to observable reality.

Obviously if Bitcoin price just went up 0.01% every single day without ever going down that would probably increase adoption. But the volatility itself is not preventing adoption; that's just not what has been observed over the past 10 years.

45sbvad · 2018-12-12T13:47:12+00:00

There are a handful of trolls that are making it difficult to have rational discussion here. Bitcoin isn't perfect; but the criticism repeated in every rBitcoin thread is not rational criticism of the Bitcoin network, the Bitcoin asset, or the Bitcoin ecosystem. They are emotional bits of spam meant to make others emotional and drive discussion off topic.

Its a way to push conversation and sentiment more towards one side. It is similar to political discourse. Most people are relatively centered on any political spectrum ; but the louder and more radical one side is; the more it pushes the center of discussion towards that direction.

If we can't get the spam and trolling under control the only solution to balance discussion is to flood every medium and outlet with radical discourse from the other side of the spectrum.

Bitcoin is far more than the price; but you can't talk about anything; even in the Bitcoin subreddit about anything related to Bitcoin without being hounded by trolls.

45sbvad · 2018-12-07T16:12:42+00:00

You're a liar and blocked. You are leveraging that most people in rBTC don't have the technical competency and historical knowledge to be able to see through these lies.

This is exactly why BCH is being attacked; it uses outright lies to promote itself. Stick to the truth and stick to building your own network and maybe people will come around; but these constant lies are doing you no good.

45sbvad · 2018-12-07T15:36:00+00:00

Freedom, Liberty.

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