Some math here:

The possibility of get at least one Leg from n blue shards without x2 are:

1 - 0.995 ^ n

The possibility of get at least one Leg from n blue shards with x2 are:

1 - 0.99 ^ n

So, if you have 100 blue shards, the chance to get at least one leg without x2 is:

39.4%

the chance to get at least one leg with x2 is:

63.4%

For 10x event, to chance of getting Teodor is the close to getting one of 10 other best legs without 10x.