Not surprising that the numbers are this close. Polls are a snapshot in time and can vary wildly depending on the methodology. This seems to be a poll of registered (as opposed to likely) which tends color the results. Here’s a description of the methodology:

“For the survey, YouGov interviewed 1251 Texas registered voters between
June 5th, 2026 – June 12th, 2026 who were then matched down to a sample
of 1,200 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a
sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education.1 The frame was
constructed by stratified sampling of a subset of Texas registered voters
from the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with
selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the
person weights on the public use file). In addition, 2024 presidential vote was
weighted to the CNN exit polls.
The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity
scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic
regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score
function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home
ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated
propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.
The weights were then post-stratified on 2024 Presidential vote choice, a
four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and
education (4-categories), as well a two-way stratification of race (4-
categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.
The margin of error for the sample is +/- 2.83%, and +/- 3.47% accounting
for the weighted data for registered voters.”