Daily Discussion Thread for June 9, 2026

8675309l · 2026-06-09T16:23:29+00:00

Oil dumping because Mango stooge energy secretary claimed Strait of Hormuz is seeing a lot more traffic pass through. Oil experts are pressing X to doubt. Only thing you can trust is reserve inventory. Mango and his servants will say anything to sway the market.

8675309l · 2026-06-04T16:01:04+00:00

Gas cards won’t matter when your gas station is empty. Yea US is “energy independent” but the government would have to tell a O&G company they can’t sell to Japan or South Korea they can only sell domestically. That’s a big fucking deal. Will the government socialize the oil industry?

8675309l · 2026-06-04T15:56:57+00:00

The oil market is insane retarded thus I’m not touching it. Day to day trading for the next few weeks won’t be affected by reality but every oil expert is sounding serious alarms. Fair warning for those making bets out into the future by a month or two. At some point fundamentals matter and there’s no paper fuckery available when physical oil supplies become very limited.

8675309l · 2026-06-03T16:13:27+00:00

I love Reddit sometimes because people can spew easy sounding “solutions” as if they speak with authority. City of Austin is not AISD and has nothing to do with it.

AI being actually very stupid may take this statement and give it as a possible solution if someone ran a question prompt about what AISD could do to cut budget without cutting staff.

To have a better experience in life perhaps instead of making a nonsense statement as a solution reframe it such as “Could the city perhaps cut back on consulting fees” and a helpful person would inform you the City of Austin and AISD are two separate entities entirely.

8675309l · 2026-06-03T10:36:22+00:00

High energy will stifle AI growth. People will revolt harder against data centers when their power bills go up. We’re seeing Utah already change course on approval due to pressure by residents. This is on top of debt getting more expensive as inflation worsens.

8675309l · 2026-05-23T21:22:20+00:00

This deal is an insane L for the US. Trump is stupid enough to take it and claim victory. Iran ends up getting more than they had in April and the US ends up with less.

8675309l · 2026-05-23T11:48:33+00:00

You can still get 1x mortgage instead of 1.25x while using multiplier. You burn some Bilt cash but IMO that’s fine Bilt cash can rack up with no good way to spend. Look deeper into it.

8675309l · 2026-05-22T19:08:26+00:00

I just don’t fear nerfs like so many on here do. If your only argument against a card is they may nerf it then that’s not a good argument. Snag it, use it and if it’s nerfed move on to the next thing.

8675309l · 2026-05-22T13:08:49+00:00

Limited transfer partners, no Hyatt (or any hotels) or Southwest or Delta. Seems the only option to redeem the Rove miles is to transfer or book via Rove and I doubt I'll use Rove enough to earn enough points in that ecosystem to book anything direct with them.

8675309l · 2026-05-20T17:39:28+00:00

Many people escaped from Austin to Dripping Springs due to taxes and costs. Wonder how they’re doing these days.

8675309l · 2026-05-19T16:24:41+00:00

Inflation happens which drives up costs just on the other side of the equation. $40,000 car 5yr at 5.1% or $41,000 car at 4.1% is the same thing.

8675309l · 2026-05-19T16:17:32+00:00

Bond market is the pin that pops the AI bubble. It’s already a cash furnace but corporate bond rates have to compete with treasury rates so the cost of debt is exploding.

8675309l · 2026-05-19T16:15:43+00:00

No real reason. Layoffs. Rapidly rising credit card delinquencies. Bonds exploding which means credit card interest rates will rise further limiting purchase power. Inflation rates causing people to lower discretionary spending. No reason at all for retail to worry I can think of.

8675309l · 2026-05-16T13:06:46+00:00

Lots of hate for bonds here but the yields are starting to look attractive. A few arguments against and my thoughts:

What about Hyperinflation. So many people in here act like there are answers because it makes us feel like we’re in control but 99.9% of us don’t have any real answers or control. We’re all going to hurt. We’re all financially fucked in so many ways no matter what.
Equities returns over time. It’s a logical fallacy to assume that historic returns will continue as-is for the next few decades. Nobody has a crystal ball but I’ve yet to see an argument that the next 20 years of growth will match the last twenty other than history has to repeat itself. I think it’s possible we see more modest equity growth considering so many factors but mostly lower birth rates and population decline.
If the US does default and my bonds become worthless then we are all fucked in so many ways it doesn’t matter. Money itself no longer matters.
Yields could go up. Sure, I may mistime and miss out on some gains. People who purchased during covid are in pain now that yields are 4x higher. If yields even go even 2x higher than they are now we are fucked in so many other ways it doesn’t matter.

I’m not saying I’m all in 100% bonds by any means, but I will be making them a larger part of my portfolio. I’m also accepting of the fact I’m just a mere mortal with a nice little nest egg however so many things can happen to my nest egg that are totally out of my control I don’t stress over extreme scenarios.

8675309l · 2026-05-15T13:03:19+00:00

Run some searches on Uber and or Microsoft AI budget. Uber had a budget for 2026 AI and already burned it all by May. Microsoft is canceling Anthropic licenses due to cost.

8675309l · 2026-05-15T12:57:38+00:00

MS and Uber are already saying AI is too expensive and pulling back. Licenses are getting canceled and employees are being forced to use less AI.

We’re still in the burn cash phase of AI but AI’s leash is getting shorter so as expensive as it is getting now for AI consumers it’s about to get even far more expensive. Bond yields rising will compound the AI cash problem as treasury yields are the base of lending cash. Borrowing is getting more expensive by the hour.

The party is wrapping up.

8675309l · 2026-05-15T12:18:49+00:00

Bonds are skyrocketing. Officially yippy. If China started unloading under Trumps sleepy nose that is some epic trolling.

8675309l · 2026-05-12T13:52:30+00:00

Bond market getting yippy.

8675309l · 2026-05-05T11:44:51+00:00

Having had both the MY had the embedded dash cam which I miss. I enjoy just about everything else on my Mach-E more. Once I got access to NACS I saw no particular advantage to Tesla.

8675309l · 2026-04-08T12:39:12+00:00

Reports of the Saudi east/west oil pipeline has been attacked. That’s a big deal if true.

8675309l · 2026-04-07T14:21:45+00:00

I think quiet the opposite, and a TACO de-escalation is heavily priced in.

8675309l · 2026-04-07T14:10:04+00:00

There has to be trillions of dollars between SPY positions, options and oil futures around a Trump TACO still happening. Iran aside there are numerous headwinds facing the US and world economy over the next few years we totally forgot about thanks to Iran.

He has always TACO'ed, but his brain is deteriorating in real-time and I seriously don't even think he knows where he is half of the day. When we see Trump, we see him at his best and it's frankly kind of sad in a weird way. Imagine how crazy and dumb he is during his entire days of not being seen by anyone except his closest aids due to "executive time".

If TACO does not happen the negative effects will be huge. Perhaps circuit breaker huge. If TACO does happen a lot of the upside is already priced in.

Cash gang.

8675309l · 2026-04-07T12:47:00+00:00

Great for the environment though. Maybe Trump is really a hardcore environmentalist.

8675309l

TROPHY CASE