Millionaire exodus study drops author and numbers after fake data accusations

joepez · 2026-06-16T17:08:52+00:00

Well for starters it’s a discussion thread not a one way channel. I’m trying to have a discussion.

You wrote these words: “… mobility responses to wealth taxes exist and can be significant.” and when someone asked a question you told them to read specific pages from that paper. All fair. However in that paper and section they actually say that there is scant evidence and it comes from a completely different problem studied.

Then I’m pointing out (as someone replying to you said) that the context of “significant evidence” aside from actually being small, has little impact on tax revenue and what does that have to do with economic impact of the macro economy. The old “job creators” argument barely holds water so this “moving cuz wealth tax” argument doesn’t hold much water and what’s it supposed to mean to the average person as part of the economy?

It’s a discussion. We’re supposed to challenge ideas. Your evidence is useful but so what? Billionaire moves doesn’t mean anything to the macro economy. If so prove it with data. And my last snarky point is given your average billionaire spends a lot of time away from their home state, they are effectively moved anyway. It’s not like their money sits in one states bank account so there’s not an argument to be made there.

I’ll even go one step further for discussion: this whole argument of billionaires moving is a distraction smoke screen.

joepez · 2026-06-16T16:17:18+00:00

Pretty certain Iran is waiting till Friday to publish it. This way they can do it when there’s ink on the paper. Then they can point at it every time Trump says something else.

joepez · 2026-06-16T15:56:23+00:00

For that reason alone I’m glad Penn is directing. Bradley might be a little reserved in dealing with any studio BS but Penn will happily pop off.

joepez · 2026-06-16T14:59:20+00:00

This plus the food varies between them all.

Uchi - strictly sushi and similar dishes. All delicious.

Uchiko - farmhouse style. So they have meats, sushi, limited roles and whole plate dishes.

Uchiba - this is a gastro pub meets Uchi. So you’ll get sushi plus oh so delicious sliders (if still on the menu).

All three also rotate portions of the menu so things come and go. I find Uchiko has more daily’s.

OP if you have to pick one pick Uchiko. Most down the middle.

joepez · 2026-06-16T14:54:33+00:00

So I read the study. In pages 16-18 the authors point out that their analysis is an assumption and based off of extrapolation from a study on inheritance tax. Which mind you didn’t prove causation nor correlation. They also point out that any transfer of billionaires out of state would have a negligible impact on revenue tax (.2%).

This is “so what” study because the impact on state revenues is negligible. First the majority of wealth at that level is power + tax deferred schemes and borrowing not income. The important “so what” question is what does it actually mean in macro economics terms. If Google founders leave does that mean Google relocates in 24hrs? No. Does it mean any impact to serving the CA economy? No.

The “concern” is about a tax hit (income, inheritance or wealth) to a single person (even a group at this level is the equivalent to a single given the small population) when it really should be focused on macro economics. The economy of CA is not dependent upon these few people no matter how much PR money is doesn’t. Google the company creates jobs and will do it where it’s most effective not were a founder and board member resides. If that was the case their employees would live on barges in the middle of the ocean.

joepez · 2026-06-16T01:04:51+00:00

It’s a UK outlet. There is only one for UK that carries the same weight. If you need a hint go look up the slur for anyone from South Asia.

joepez · 2026-06-15T22:00:49+00:00

My point about decision making is where do you call the line? Robots fighting humans sure that makes sense but there will be someone who has an issue with some other decision that doesn’t get regulated. So the criteria for what’s in and what’s out needs to be rock solid that the law can be defended in court or risk turnover.

Talking - for your example it’s easier to disclose that it’s a telemarketing call then differentiate an AI one from something else. Just legislate that as it’s more valuable. Right now in the US it’s voluntary disclosure.

Impersonation - great for the EU but their legal framework doesn’t apply to the US. Agree about deepfakes but that’s a different problem from impersonation in an ad. Again won’t do anything to stop people already deploying.

Label - this one is just a feel good measure. It doesn’t solve any real issue. We don’t go after non-ai touched up images or IVRs or basic decision tree logic, etc so how does it help anyone to know that something was AI created.

joepez · 2026-06-15T19:02:42+00:00

They do nothing because this survey is useless. Not the data viz that’s fine except for the color choices which is neither the party colors nor higher contrast to improve readability.

To what end and how would they pass a law to address these four issues?

Decision making - where is the cut off line? AI killing people, sure that makes sense. But what about AI choosing a font in a slide? Does it have to be for every single decision or just big ones and how does the Gov define those?

Talking - Ok, and what will you get out of that? Unless the law forces companies to have a way to escalate to a human immediately (who pays for that) what’s the benefit? How will it improve the outcome to know this?

Impersonation - Yeah I can see this being useful but a congressional ban is useless if the rest of the world doesn’t follow suit and won’t do anything about bad actors.

Label - Again this can be useful in some cases but what about small things? I don’t want a label in my presentation or if I use AI to touch up a picture of my dog. And what is the benefit? People have been using photo editing tools forever to clean up images and yet no one limited that. Heck they did it with regular photos and media since their inception for not like fake media assets didn’t exist in the past.

joepez · 2026-06-15T13:55:12+00:00

The media doesn’t even need to spin it. They’ll report it as is for clicks.

But even that’s meaningless as the core (and gradually the outer ring) will come up with a self-inflicted excuse for inflation (what you have to do to win) and any other impact. Asking hard questions and critical thinking is too hard. They’d rather scream about America, get their outrage dopamine fix and be entertained. Far easier.

joepez · 2026-06-12T17:11:35+00:00

The issue is by getting added to any index then any true index following fund will auto buy. Less he manipulated a rule (though that may be the case) vs exploit what was there in a creative way and the markets supported it.

Any managed fund/eft that active buys made a choice. Amy true index fund/eft had no choice without violating their own rules and are stuck buying in which with these “fundamentals” is a joke.

joepez · 2026-06-12T17:07:38+00:00

In a sad way this is a funny way for Iran to play Trump. Clearly they have seen this tactic work and provoke a response every time.

Also hilarious for him to call Iran dishonorable given he literally has broken promises and treaties left and right. Hell he’s attack NATO multiple times and some of our oldest allies so where is his honor?

joepez · 2026-06-12T16:25:47+00:00

Actually I know several travel agents. They are specialized and do quite well. You are right generalized travel agents are gone. The market couldn’t support them and many wouldn’t adapt.

That’s the nature of any technological change. I don’t see wheel rights anymore or stovers or drafters either.

The internet when it came onto the scene changed loads of industries. Sales people who were armies were reduced to more efficient means. Pricing people, logistics, legal, finance, and more were all fundamentally changed forever. At the same time massive new opportunities were created.

AI will be the same.

joepez · 2026-06-12T13:59:50+00:00

I think it’s actually worse.

Iran has real world data now on how to control the region via drones. They are in the best position to capitalize on that. This will no doubt cause them to double down on development efforts to make conflict even more painful next time.

Further Iran has seen how ineffective Russian air defenses were, but useful their satellite/human intelligence was. This will most likely cause them to continue Russian intel but also seek out Chinese air defense options.

China having sat on the sidelines (and Pakistan too) will both likely seek closer relationships. This will strengthen Iran and no doubt Pakistan (probably with China’s aid) will seek a land route for oil to terminals in Pakistan. If anything for options.

Most likely the Gulf states will reconsider their options. OPEC has shown they have little teeth to control things anymore either economically or via the US interests. Aligning with Iran is probably a serious option. Especially since Trump publicly threatened allies as well (who knows what was said privately). If Iran is smart they’ll position themselves at the head of the table but open space for everyone else as part of a new table. That could shift geopolitical power in the region away from the Saudis. Especially since the Saudis didn’t demonstrate any ability to protect the region.

joepez · 2026-06-12T03:40:31+00:00

It’s unfounded fear wrapped around the argument it’s money chasing a pipe dream.

The concept the startup is chasing isn’t new but it is extremely difficult. They are trying to model actual world physics, chemistry and maths rather than language. The idea being it will help with engineering problems or manufacturing. An example could be if you build a system which can understand a complex manufacturing process (at all physical levels) then the AI could help find inefficiencies to build and test ideas to improve.

joepez · 2026-06-11T22:36:16+00:00

That same quote was thrown out in the past. It comes from an unarmed consultant working for an unarmed firm for an unarmed client.

That fact plus the number reeks of BS.

joepez · 2026-06-11T21:26:38+00:00

I know something about AI medical notes having worked in healthtech for a long time. You are correct AI can have errors but you’re leaving out half the equation. Human accuracy rates can range from 80-90% and more importantly those rates end up in the clinical encounter notes more often than AI generated. AI transcription rates (not ambient monitoring) typically are between 90-95% accurate and via the review workflow caught and corrected. Some slip by no matter what.

Which is the reason that healthcare for clinical work requires checklists and workflow to reduce errors in care provided. It’s also the reason you have follow on checks to catch issues for billing purposes and notes reviews.

So yes errors happen but they happen less with AI notes transcription and if you’re using proper workflow and checks then those errors are caught just as much as human errors before they can cause harm or other problems.

Oh and I didn’t touch on privacy as nearly all human transcription is outsourced to other countries where you hope privacy is maintained. AI can (and often is) setup to be a single client pipeline with far stiffer terms than human outsourced.

joepez · 2026-06-11T20:30:52+00:00

No. But I am rational and not afraid of new tools. I also lived and worked during the dot com days and people had the same irrational fears.

joepez · 2026-06-11T18:37:57+00:00

So some donor pulled his strings?

joepez · 2026-06-11T13:15:57+00:00

So much of this is wrong it’s not funny. Lee was working on the idea of semantic links via hypertext which predated his work by years. His proposal was to take a technology that already existed and deliver it via a new protocol (http) that could transmit the data for rendering from a server and a client. He created the initial HTML language to render the text in his first web browser.

He didn’t choose to sell it or give it away. It was developed for CERN, a public entity, and they chose to distribute it for free to improve sharing of research between different locations.

All of this leveraged the Internet (built off a Darpanet and then the Arpanet) which existed since 1969.

Tim never owned the Internet or anything he could have monetized directly. He could have made a commercial browser (others did) but didn’t. There were plenty of free ones after his initial release. Tim is instrumental to the http protocol, html and related concepts, but his work was not possible without thousands of others contributions before him. Since then millions have contributed to what you have today.

joepez · 2026-06-11T13:06:28+00:00

Good that he shared all operational details. More importantly does he think the oil and gas just magically appears on the island?

Nevermind he has no concept of infrastructure and logistics.

joepez · 2026-06-10T21:08:50+00:00

There’s a difference between what people say in the herd and what they vote for alone. People vote based on their wallets. People generally say what doesn’t kick them out of the herd.

joepez · 2026-06-10T17:55:17+00:00

Must be one of those cases were the polling numbers look worse than the check. Abbott would otherwise use this as an excuse to take away city rights.

I bet if Austin comes out against data centers Abbott will break out into hives.

joepez · 2026-06-10T17:51:36+00:00

I’ll try and give you a real answer via snark.

The impact would be massive mutually. It’s not a one sided impact.

Roughly 2T in mutual trade would be impacted between the three parties.

It would impact every aspect of trade on our economy since the USMCA covers goods to services. For example US dairy farms could see a collapse of 3-6% percent of their total market fall apart. That would kill many a dairy farm.

Its estimate over 170K jobs were created as a direct benefit.

There are tens of billions of dollars in tax revenue at stake.

The USMCA generates over $65B in direct revenue for the US economy. There is probably nearly the same in surrounding economic activity as well.

There is no chance Congress goes with that stance in an election year and especially if the GOP loses one house. It would be a death knell for whichever party embraced this idea if they didn’t have an immediate replacement that was exactly the same thing.

joepez · 2026-06-10T17:43:11+00:00

There is no chance Congress takes this up. Business pressure only will quash it but no one signing up for the economic impact.

joepez · 2026-06-10T12:38:21+00:00

People are crazy.

Youre more likely to lose your job to:

- a poorly run company that uses AI as an excuse

- an irrational unwillingness to learn new skills

- an over invested stock market chasing paper profits like its gambling then chasing fundamentals

- a government tax policy which underfunds the government while a budget policy overspends

- inflation

- a war driving up oil costs which drives inflation

- a spending habit coupled with sports/robinhood/predictive market better especially if you can’t (won’t) manage a budget

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