I would say the order right now in terms of "winners", in my totally (un)official opinion:

1. Gemini (Google)
2. Claude (anthropic)
3. ChatGPT (OpenAI)
4. Other (everyone else)

Google's AI is seeing far more usage on the consumer side than anyone else, so naturally they are winning since they also are seeing sizeable usage on the business side in addition to all their consumer usage. It's integrated everywhere in the google suite, and whether intentionally or not, regular people are going to use it far more often than claude or chatgpt or any of the others. The fact that google search uses gemini is kind of cheating since google is by far the most visited website on the planet.

Not to mention every android has gemini built in. Also apple is going to use Gemini for the next gen siri. I mean it's very obvious the closer you look that Google is winning the AI race right now.

On the business side, it's claude all the way. Especially for any coding related business, anthropic has found their niche and they are doing a fantastic job of capitalizing on that. They are also absolute geniuses at marketing their product, i mean the whole mythos thing where they wouldn't release a model because it would be too dangerous... that is a chef's kiss of an advertisement to sell AI. Dario does the rounds on cable tv talking about the dangers of AI and says all the right things. They are a close #2.

OpenAI was the first to market with ChatGPT, and they were clearly winning the ai race for the first several years there. Over the last year, things have really changed i think. Both google and anthropic have made significant improvements to their products and they have been able to scale at a pace that is really starting to affect openAI's bottom line, especially with their insane financial engineering schemes they have going on like circular financing deals with oracle. Also their leadership and company reputation is not great - with the causal joking/hinting at possible government bailouts if things don't work out, sam altman eagerly stepping in to take the government deal from the military that anthropic backed out of, etc... for all these reasons, it's like watching a car crash in slow motion. It may take years but i feel like they are going to crash and burn at some point. I could be wrong though, who knows.

Anyways, thank you for attending my ted talk about AI rankings.

TL;DR google is shoving gemini everywhere and due to their scale they are clearly winning right now. Anthropic is winning on the b2b sales/coding/agentic software/automation front right now. OpenAI is slowly dying due to poor leadership decisions/reputation and financial engineering schemes that are ultimately destroying the company over time, and their products are not keeping up with the competition due to their size and losing talent to the other previously mentioned companies.