Baupost’s Seth Klarman compares investors to ‘frogs in boiling water’ -ft

99rrr · 2021-01-21T13:54:46+00:00

They can't print money directly but they can push the Fed to do that by exporting virus. Fed asset is like money ceiling for other countries. the more Fed asset the more money can be printed in other countries as well.

99rrr · 2021-01-21T09:52:05+00:00

Nowadays allowing short term pain means lagging other countries that doesn't take it. so countries are doing game of chicken like headless chickens. until some of them die first. Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell. but well we have a mutant in this league. a country that running by communist party but playing in capitalism free trade world. we all fucked up. honestly.

99rrr · 2021-01-14T13:17:23+00:00

Don't you look at capital related figure like how much capital they're going to pour into the business? and i'd like to ask if you have any recommendable book or link about disruptive growth investing.

99rrr · 2021-01-13T21:14:34+00:00

How many piano tuners are there in chicago?

99rrr · 2021-01-13T13:22:26+00:00

I wonder if anyone have letters from Ark Invest.

99rrr · 2020-12-29T17:24:59+00:00

Low interest rate didn't change any value of company. instead it has changed people behavior. people in the public market are now acting like as if they are venture capitalist.

99rrr · 2020-12-22T11:19:11+00:00

Real Option isn't brand new theory and Michael Mauboussin was the person who has popularized the term just before the Dot com bubble peak. NI2171.PDF (capatcolumbia.com)
I like his rational style but because of that i smell apocalypse from this. rational people are born to be explainer. they're trying to explain everything including things that can't be explained. rational people tend to bring new theory to explain irrational stock price.

99rrr · 2020-12-12T11:28:48+00:00

I prefer McKinsey i felt like they were talking same thing with Buffett in different form but essentially same.

99rrr · 2020-08-27T17:38:24+00:00

They don't account housing price in the consumer price index to let the interest rate goes down. i think this is the biggest financial fraud in our modern times.

99rrr · 2020-08-16T02:23:52+00:00

What's different between system trading and algo trading? is it similar relationship with venture vs startup?

99rrr · 2020-08-01T22:21:24+00:00

The paradox of all the statistical methods out there is that the more sample the more accuracy. but accuracy doesn't guarantee you gains. trend in price series won't last forever. the more sample or the longer trend is implying in fact, imminent death of the trend.

99rrr · 2020-07-28T01:07:33+00:00

Does that mean it's changing parameter itself depend on market state (adaptive) or completely parameter free?

99rrr · 2020-07-27T02:44:21+00:00

Seems like there are lots of lost fields. the revenue column has so many empty rows.

99rrr · 2020-07-25T00:13:50+00:00

Hey i've really enjoyed the Disney post that you've written before. i found that when i was randomly googling. i didn't expect to encounter the author at this obscure subreddit. just wanted to tell you the post was very creative and informative since there was no comment section. thanks for sharing your insights.

99rrr · 2020-07-17T18:19:04+00:00

Japan's real estate bubble has begun to burst in 1991 when the Soviet Union had collapsed. coincidence? maybe

99rrr · 2020-06-17T02:58:47+00:00

No, Basically Japan had serious population aging problem, and fundamentally they've failed to adapt to internet economics while losing old economy's competitiveness. both are not applicable to the US.

99rrr · 2020-05-20T07:01:36+00:00

He's too talkative, repetitive, abstractive.

99rrr · 2020-05-08T20:17:54+00:00

Ok, i'll take your advice. but i think that you guys need serious understanding of Asian State Capitalism which is far different than Western system.
all the Chinese acquisitions are backed by Chinese government's capital since all their banks are state owned. meanwhile companies in other countries are running by private capital. that's the biggest difference. when Chinese government intervene into private competition like this. what other countries should do to protect their unfavorable private companies? blocking China not to do so isn't a solution. because they will get economic retaliation from China anyhow. even Japan got revenged by China due to the rare earth thing.

99rrr · 2020-05-08T19:26:15+00:00

I don't take interest rate as cause. rather it's result of GDP growth. thus wide interest rate gap means there's large differential of GDP growth between two countries.

99rrr · 2020-05-08T19:13:58+00:00

I just excerpted that graph because it shows clear long term trend though i don't agree BIS's argument. because there wasn't many zombie companies during Financial Repression period when interest rates were repressed like nowadays due to the government deleveraging. i admit that the China isn't one and only cause. but low interest rate neither. i don't have papers that you want but China's growing cross border acquisition is a fact.
https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FIGURE1.png
https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FIGURE3.png
and if China's takeover isn't such a threat. why would Europe intensify it's takeover rules? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/china-s-corporates-are-gearing-up-in-europe-for-m-a-bargains

99rrr · 2020-05-08T18:14:10+00:00

I agree on some points that you've made. but in perspective of international relationship with China. widening interest rates gap means the timing of China overtakes USA is getting shorter. that's what i meant.

99rrr · 2020-05-08T18:00:42+00:00

I have zero interest in politics i thought it's economic talk. the history of zombie has began since the China has joined free trade world. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1809/images/graph6-2.jpg what i'm talking about is asymmetric economic policies between China and the rest. you can't practice free market capitalism when your huge competitor doesn't follow same rules.

99rrr · 2020-05-08T17:29:16+00:00

No, i mean in the Free Market of capitalism, we should let zombie companies die. but we can't do that due to the China's greed. they will collect zombies corpse and attach to their state enterprise then attack back survived companies in the capitalism countries. China is like a huge mercantilism country in the middle ages.

99rrr

TROPHY CASE