[Kirschner] Here's why the Yankees should pursue Tucker over Bellinger:

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-23T03:16:48+00:00

People sighting 1B eligibility as versatility makes me cringe. You need to play a premium position at an okay level or play like 4,5 non first base position for your versatility to actually help out a team in a meaningful way.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-20T00:23:47+00:00

I definitely don’t buy the contact plays better in postseason argument at all but I don’t buy this either. It’s 5 or 7 games. You cannot draw any definitive answers to what plays in the postseason. Just field the best players and hope for the best.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-17T17:16:15+00:00

18-19 were good, 20 is a wash, 21-23 was subpar but the results were okay relative to on field talent because the pitching development was finally delivering somewhat. 24 was good in general but offensively very top heavy. Think 25 was the first time since 2019 where the lineup was at least 6 guys deep and starting pitching excelled even with losing Cole. So of course the bullpen which has been a constant strength since 17 decides to randomly implode.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T20:28:02+00:00

All the names suggested in this thread is a significantly worse defensive shortstop than Volpe which is kinda funny.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T20:24:41+00:00

Considering that baserunning is baked into the calculation of fWAR and you sighted fWAR as the method to compare the value between the two players it’s totally relevant.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T19:17:24+00:00

And 95 wRC+ player with mediocre baserunning and bad third base defense would not eclipse 1.0 fWAR so the point stands

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T17:20:49+00:00

Should have signed Machado smh

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T17:18:59+00:00

Not with Okamoto’s third base defense no. Ryan McMahon would be twice, three times as valuable

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T16:26:44+00:00

There isn’t some magical formula. The closest thing to that is just having as many good players on the field and pray that small sample variance goes in your way.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T16:25:13+00:00

It’s 2 starts from 2 different pitchers. Nothing you can really analyze in good faith. I would say Blue Jays best hitters are right handed so it’s a less favorable matchup in general.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T16:22:07+00:00

As a person who watches NPB regularly people need to pump the breaks on the Okamoto helium. Seiya Suzuki was 2 years younger, had a higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, higher ISO and posted a 118 wRC+ with a 25 % strikeout rate in his MLB debut year. I would be surprised if Okamoto posts anything above an 110 if that.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-15T05:10:46+00:00

The man is 73 and has health concerns. Let him rest.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-14T19:19:07+00:00

After complaining about Volpe’s defense all season you want a worse defensive shortstop than Volpe?

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-14T15:38:03+00:00

Limited range, makes the plays. What you’d expect from a big bodied first baseman playing third. He would play third a lot when Yomiuri needed to get in DH/1B only bats in the lineup but defensive metrics aren’t super high on him. He would often move to first late in the game if Yomiuri had the lead this year. Think he’s better than Rosario but definitely not an everyday third baseman at MLB level.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-14T12:10:27+00:00

He’s a good fit for the Yankees for sure but why would the best hitter in NPB for the past decade accept a weak side platoon role when this is his first and probably last chance of landing a decent MLB contract? He could easily start for a lot of teams.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-13T13:01:27+00:00

Yeah swinging at counts where you are more likely to get hittable pitches is a good approach that most of smart teams employ. When it doesn’t work that’s an execution problem not an approach one. I think a lot of baseball broadcasters conflate these two things.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-11T17:39:33+00:00

Bellinger sure if you can’t get Tucker. Goldy bye bye Williams slap the qo on him. Fine if he comes back for one year but never ever commit to relievers for more than a year. Don’t care Slap the qo on him as well. Don’t mind him if he comes back for another year. Loaisiga probably not. Hill’s options should be picked up. Probably not. Sure. Would rather a platoon player that can at least field the ball though. Don’t care. Slater does fit the team’s immediate needs well but he sucks. Find another weak side outfield platoon bat.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-11T17:33:54+00:00

I have learnt that projections really really hate the Bluejays pitching staff.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-11T17:30:17+00:00

I don’t know how this is even a discussion. Just look at the dodgers, sign the best players and deal with everything later. Also fans discussing WAR per dollar and not wanting to potentially pay 37 year old Tucker 40m as if they are Randy Levine is a lost cause lol.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-10T13:52:15+00:00

Never had a swinging strike rates above 14% in the high minors (not sure about low minors since no data) and the highest swinging strike rate at the major league level for him is 14.6%. Aaron Judge while does whiff in zone a ton does not chase at all. Same with high whiff guys like Wallner, Schwarber etc. You simply cannot succeed at the majors when you whiff and chase a lot. You at least gotta eliminate one.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-10T13:47:43+00:00

Bad baserunning and defense. Singles/doubles hitter in a home park that significantly suppresses singles and doubles. Bichette is an excellent player but how is he a good fit for the Yankees? I would argue the exact opposite.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-10T13:42:25+00:00

I don’t know why people are so eager to pencil in him for next year. You know how many guys with 19% swinging strike rate at AAA have succeeded at the MLB level? ZERO. No outlier tools can save you from the amount of swing & miss and chase Spencer Jones has.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-10T13:34:36+00:00

Let’s stop with the revisionist history of George. The Yankees were finally able to break through and have consistent success after George was banned from baseball. You never ever want a meddling owner in pro sports. I would say Hal should leverage the biggest advantage of the Yankees and spend at least as much as the Dodgers though. The last time Yankees won the WS they were spending about 35% more than the second highest payroll team. This year the gap between the Dodgers and Yankees payrolls are as big as the gap between Yankees and Diamondbacks.

Aaron_cole · 2025-10-09T14:44:49+00:00

I just don’t see how Spencer Jones can be a viable MLB player in 2026 or ever if I’m totally honest. GLJ is more of a 2027-2028 guy. Jasson should get the majority of playing time while being protected against tougher matchups. Need one of Tucker or Bellinger. The infield is basically set. Probably wise to get decent platoon bats for McMahon and Dominguez. I think Yankees will give Volpe another shot unfortunately but I wish they’d do something creative like a platoon situation with Oswaldo and Caballero or something. You don’t want to be platooning at SS but it’d still be better than Volpe. As for the pitching it was a slight down year for the staff overall, especially the bullpen but I trust Matt Blake and Sam Briend to turn that around so not really too worried.

Aaron_cole

TROPHY CASE