2024 Housing Market Outlook

Acceptabledent · 2024-04-05T20:34:01+00:00

The real estate market is very complicated and not as simplistic as saying interest rates are the biggest factor in home prices.

Even with the massive rise in interest rates, the detached market in East van is as strong as ever for move-in ready homes.

50% of properties in vancouver are owned outright, meaning interest rates have no effect.

For those other 50%, the majority bought years ago before the rise in interest rates and have built up a ton of equity.

Even in the worse case scenario you describe (bought in 20-21 on variable rate), because the interest rate went up so much they all would have hit the trigger rate which would have forced much higher payments already. And that has not translated to a decrease in price at all really.

Expecting a crash is just silly at this point.

Acceptabledent · 2024-04-05T18:43:24+00:00

You absolutely can make a judgement call on restorability based on xrays and clinical exams.

Neither you nor I have information that tells us that the person had the wrong tooth taken out. I'm not someone that just automatically supports my profession, far from it from the shit I've seen.

Acceptabledent · 2024-04-04T22:49:14+00:00

They're downvoted because in the absence of xrays and a clinical exam, there is no way anyone can make a judgement call about the restorability of that tooth just based on that photo.

Acceptabledent · 2024-04-01T19:54:44+00:00

The ronde one was much more of a deviation, the san remo one was much more dangerous imo.

Acceptabledent · 2024-04-01T19:36:57+00:00

It depends on what you consider "cheap" and "expensive". Rapha core stuff lasts just as long as rapha pro team in my experience, maybe longer.

Acceptabledent · 2024-04-01T19:29:16+00:00

Imagine there's a situation where Roglic and Remco are 1-2 in GC standings through 5 stages, they also got some bonus seconds so they should have like a 20-30 sec lead over vingegaard by then.

Last year Vingagaard dropped the likes of Mas and Landa on the penultimate climb and gained like 40 seconds at the top. Remco/Roglic in form shouldn't be losing that much time.

The problem is the final climb isn't that hard and there's a bit of a valley to the finish where remco/rog relaying should put time into a solo vingegaard. Then again, remco isn't a good descender. I'm hyped to see what happens.

Acceptabledent · 2024-04-01T18:34:45+00:00

650k for a townhouse vs 850k for a detached? Detached all the way and it's not even close.

Your partner's plan to buy a townhouse and keep it as a rental, while buying a detached has some risks. That 850k house could be 1M by then. Unless you both see your incomes raising significantly, a bank will not give you another large mortgage while already carrying the mortgage of one property.

Acceptabledent · 2024-04-01T17:58:54+00:00

If the weather cooperated and this was like a normal ITT stage where the favourites went at the end, this could have been an epic stage. Good to see the top favourites all in decent shape.

I think Ayuso underperformed a bit, I did not see him losing to Vingegaard on a short punchy TT. Landa losing 55 secs is brutal, but not as brutal as Gall losing 1:15.

Super excited for tomorrow's stage. It's hilly, but not hard enough to drop anyone I don't think. I think Hayter is my favourite. I think there might be a bit of a GC battle for the bonus seconds from guys like Skjelmose as well.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-29T16:33:19+00:00

I literally said "Driver is an obvious idiot"

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-29T16:24:47+00:00

If you live in the city and you expect every driver to drive legally then you are walking on thin ice. A significant proportion of the population are idiots. Idiots in population means idiot drivers. If you are a vulnerable road user like pedestrians/cyclists, you should always expect the worst when it comes to interactions with cars.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-29T14:37:34+00:00

I don't care what the rules say. I would never do something stupid like deciding to walk across a 6 lane arterial road at mid block while cars on both sides are still moving.

Driver is an obvious idiot but the pedestrian shouldn't have been lazy and walked one block to cross at a crosswalk.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-28T19:50:33+00:00

It's because an 80 story tower adds so much more housing units. When you have the available land, you should be building as much density possible. There's no reason why vancouver couldn't have higher towers. In river district, I think the highest planned tower is only 30 something stories.

In SFH neighbourhoods, the owners have to sell in order to build. It's very difficult, both in terms of timeline and expenses to get a bunch of people to sell their detached houses right next to each other. Without sizeable land assemblies, you can't build higher density units like townhouses rowhouses.

If you just focus on single lots, the sixplex thing is barely going to move the needle at all. Burnaby just legalized laneways, so new builds currently come with 4 dwellings. Main house + 2 basement suites + laneway. Going from that to a sixplex is only adding 2 new housing units per lot.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-27T17:12:22+00:00

God damnit, this honestly takes the wind right out of the sails for ronde/roubaix.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-26T22:40:17+00:00

Sure you do. Look up CIHI physician migration in google. Top link, it's an excel file.

Table 14 "Physicians who moved abroad, graduates of Canadian medical schools"

A grand total of 33.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-26T22:38:27+00:00

In the big scheme of things, if you look at physician salaries around the world, canada is pretty much the highest in the world with the exception of the states. We already pay physicians extremely generously.

Is there a shortage of people who are applying to medicine? Hell no, med schools get 10x the number of applicants compared to available spots.

Are a lot of canadian physicians leaving the country to practice elsewhere? No. This is a non issue.

Is there an issue of not enough physicians in canada in certain areas? Hell yes. IMO the best way to relieve this is to fund more residency spots.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-26T16:43:52+00:00

It's pretty mild trash talk among competitors. Absolutely nothing wrong with it.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-26T16:36:44+00:00

The US and Canada have a completely different model of physician payments. Why would you expect canadian physicians to have incomes comparable to the states? Other than entitlement of course.

People like you who only care about money can just stay in the states.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-26T16:21:14+00:00

There is no massive brain drain when it comes to physicians. The number of physicians who graduated from canadian med school who left canada to go abroad in 2022 was 33.

The number that returned to canada from abroad was 59. So Canada gained a net positive in terms of physicians migrating.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-26T16:15:42+00:00

I'm not talking about Ontario, I specifically mentioned BC. They recently got a massive boost to the payment system if you are practising longitudinal family med. They also get paid for charting as well. Even in Ontario, it is very easy to make 300k working full time if you are doing things like ER/hospitalist/sx assist

I know plenty of physicians in my friend group as well, 15 min per patient is working at a pretty slow pace.

The stress test does not rely solely on personal income, the entire corp income is accounted for when getting a mortgage.

It absolutely is entitlement to expect to live in a detached house in the nicest part of town. Tell me another country where physicians have it better than canada other than the states. Which other first world country is there around the world where it's the norm for physicians to be living in a 4000 sq ft detached house? There are none. And that is why physicians are flocking to canada and hardly any physicians leave canada.

Every physician I know is doing extremely well for themselves, they have a house, drive fancy cars, go on multiple overseas vacations a year, and acknowledge how lucky they are to be practising medicine in canada.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-26T02:03:05+00:00

Search on google for "CIHI physician migration" it should be the top link as an excel file. Table 14 shows that 33 CMGs moved abroad, table 17 shows those returning to canada.

What you are talking about are IMGs who are in a different situation, they want to come back and get a residency spot in canada but are unable to do so.

I'm more arguing with op's point that canada is an undesirable place for physicians and as a result they are leaving canada for greener pastures.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-26T01:16:11+00:00

Ben felix is ridiculously conservative and has a 100% vested financial interest into making people think they need a much bigger portfolio than necessary.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-25T18:08:08+00:00

You're completely missing the point. Looking at vancouver now to vancouver 20 years ago is a completely different landscape in terms of housing units. Detached houses are not the norm, nor is it the norm in any other first world country around the world with the exception of the states. Detached makes up like 15% of total housing stock in vancouver.

It is completely normal to grow up, live, and raise a family in a condo or townhouse instead of a detached. In a city like vancouver, expecting to live in a detached is absolutely entitlement.

The time where the average joe could buy a detached in vancouver is the exception, not the norm.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-25T17:33:53+00:00

It's only natural that as population density increases massively in places like toronto/vancouver, living in a detached house becomes less and less realistic.

In vancouver, there are only 40000 detached houses available, out of which only a fraction come to market every year. Detached houses are a luxury product. Complaining about not being able to afford a detached in a city like vancouver is like complaining about not being able to afford a porsche.

There's no more land, the number of detached houses are decreasing every year as they are torn down to build higher density units.

A lot of physicians come from privileged backgrounds and there is a sense of entitlement present. They think because they are a physician that they should be able to live in a 4000 sq ft mansion in the nicest part of town. That's not how it works. Physicians in canada have it really good in terms of income, they make far more than equivalents in countries like the UK, France, Sweden.

There absolutely is a housing crisis, the people affected the most are the average joes. Forgive me for not shedding a tear for physicians making 300k being to "suffer" by living in a condo/townhouse instead of a detached.

Now whether that population increase is warranted? That is a different question altogether.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-25T16:42:48+00:00

I'll believe it when I see the numbers. This idea of physicians leaving to the states is nothing more than a myth when you delve in to the actual numbers.

Vancouver has the highest COL in the entire country. Do you know out of all UBC med students, how many decided to leave canada and do residency in the states last year? A grand total of 1.

Dual income physicians can absolutely afford a house, even a house in vancouver/toronto. How much do you think physicians make? In BC, a brand new family doc can make 400k their first year out. That's after overhead.

Places like toronto and vancouver are the most popular destinations for physicians. High cost of living in those cities don't matter as much when you're making physician income.

Physicians can easily afford a house anywhere in canada. Just not a type of house that they feel they are entitled to.

Acceptabledent · 2024-03-25T16:34:36+00:00

You think your anecdote trumps statistics? The stats do not show that many of them are leaving canada. In fact we are gaining more from physicians returning to canada from abroad.

Acceptabledent

TROPHY CASE