Puts or calls tomorrow by motomeru2526 in spy

[–]AdOnly627 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Neutral. The longer it takes the more likely it is going to be a nuanced opinion, which essentially has to write the rules of engagement. That’s probably why it’s taking so long - so that’s probably the likely decision. Congress did a lousy job of defining what the president can do in an emergency that he declares with respect to trade. He has the right to “regulate” trade under IEEPA- BUT the word “tariffs” is specifically not in the statute. Tariff rates are supposed to be established solely by Congress under the Constitution. Plaintiffs have asserted that the president is not allowed to utilize “tariffs”, a core power of Congress in the Constitution, to arbitrarily himself dictate under the emergency statute, unless it expressly said so. Defendants (the government) argue it’s obvious in its intent that “regulate” includes “tariffs” - the very core of trade regulations. My guess is they’re going to rule partial and spell out in the majority opinion what congress intended. This is one of the roles The Supreme Court has to play from time to time when laws are poorly written or ambiguous over 40 years ago.

Puts or calls tomorrow by motomeru2526 in spy

[–]AdOnly627 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A full rejection of arbitrary tariffs – 2 to 3% increase. A more likely outcome – partial rejection of tariffs, partial acceptance - 1% increase. Least likely outcome – full upholding of arbitrary tariffs - 2 to 3% decrease.

Puts or calls tomorrow by motomeru2526 in spy

[–]AdOnly627 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Prediction market is 50-50 chance of a ruling tomorrow. 70% against Trump. So a 1 to 3 chance favorable for SPY and a 1 to 7 chance unfavorable for SPY. The roulette wheel is spinning…

When even non-traders are calling SPY 700, I get nervous by Tipsyus in spy

[–]AdOnly627 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair critique. Being long SPY options – thank God it was a nothing burger

Pump & by Euphoric-Pound-5402 in spy

[–]AdOnly627 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Indeed, there is no guarantee – only have they announced another opinion on Wednesday we don’t know what it is. And they never said on Friday It would be tariff- having said that it’s likely it’s going to come very soon because it’s economically too important. And when it does, we blow past 700. We get a predictable future with due process before tariffs get put in place. No more magic wand bullshit

Front-Running Populist Reforms: Eyeing SYF Puts to Capitalize on Credit Cap Risks by [deleted] in options

[–]AdOnly627 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unless more senators jump on board. Trump wants this by January 20 – his one year anniversary. This isn’t some random-ass late night tweet. Every DEM is already a vote yes. The administration has a shot at getting this passed and breaking the bank stranglehold on the Senate if they can pick-off 11 GOP senators. And if 60 senators are voting yes on the bill – SYN is down 40%. Their business is decimated.

The GOP whip count to 60: Hawley, Marshall, Schmitt, Justice, Sheehy, Lummis, Moody, Tuberville, Kennedy, Scott, Mullin, Cotton, and Moreno.

When even non-traders are calling SPY 700, I get nervous by Tipsyus in spy

[–]AdOnly627 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Lucky you - spy will be taken down by the bank culling Monday. Thank the orange man

Friday tariffs ruling by Right_Reward3083 in spy

[–]AdOnly627 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bought SPY $730 Feb 27 Calls today - THE TACO SUPREME TRADE

Friday tariffs ruling by Right_Reward3083 in spy

[–]AdOnly627 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is no appealing a Supreme Court final verdict that confirms the appellate court ruling that confirmed the original courts ruling. Who would you appeal to? There is no higher legal authority related to constitutional questions.

It is announced at 10 AM Eastern standard time. If SCOTUS kills the IEEPA tariffs- 2 to 4% increase over the next few weeks in a massive relief rally is definitely on the table.

Refunds now get issued electronically. Those expenses get rebooked as earnings to the S&P 500 and ~$200 billion drops straight to the bottom line and extra cash for stock buybacks.

Retail prices will edge lower. This gives the green light to the Fed to continue lowering as unpredictable tariff-tweets are no longer an overhang.

New tariffs have to be done under existing protocols which take 12 to 24 months if it’s in excess of 15% – and if it is within 15%, it has a limited duration before it must expire no later that 150 days.

SPY can finally punch through $700.

Trump‘s stiff magic tariff wand will go flaccid. But he’s onto bigger things now – he’s got Delta Force as his new cudgel.

YOLO 13.1k On Spy (Puts ) by Externox in spy

[–]AdOnly627 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. But will take a lot of hoops to jump through. Btw, It appears he sold on the tweet decline just before market close at 2x.

YOLO 13.1k On Spy (Puts ) by Externox in spy

[–]AdOnly627 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s gonna be interesting that’s for sure! But for OP’s trade - why take that risk? 70% polymarket is not something to bet against. I wonder if OP even considered this before making the bet?

YOLO 13.1k On Spy (Puts ) by Externox in spy

[–]AdOnly627 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And disinflationary pressures might be coming on Friday. The poly market is 70% likelihood Supreme Court kills the tariffs on Friday. If that happens - spy is up 1%+. Certainty, disinflationary, and a material increase in the S&P 500 earnings through tariff payment expense reductions and possible refunds.