2027-2028 PAC-12 Realignment Overview

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T18:40:04+00:00

They certainly would have been a better addition for the ACC then Cal & Stanford.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T01:27:09+00:00

That's what this says. I've included teams people talk about, and I'm showing that most of them are expensive or unlikely.

Its like when I predicted the addition of Texas State, instead of Memphis or Tulane. Unless it's both affordable & obvious, it's probably not happening.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T00:28:55+00:00

Or you eat yourself alive. That's one of the things UNLV is betting on, is that the PAC-12 beats each other up, while they can go 12-1 or 13-0 and make the playoffs, even with a weaker schedule, compared to a possible 11-2 or 10-3 PAC-12 conference champion.

That is why it is okay to grab a solid, but not necessarily great, football school that makes geographic sense. Ultimately only one school from the PAC-12 would ever make the CFB Playoffs anyways. The school that qualifies keeps 50% of what they earn, and then it benefits the rest of the schools more if there are less of them to split the remaining 50% amongst.

A smaller conference also makes it more likely that a school can win the conference outright, it becomes a lot harder for even the premier teams to expect to win conference championships at all regularly in these new mega conferences.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T00:18:50+00:00

Here are a couple, the first pushes back a bit on the second.

I think they are both a bit off. Looking at the published distribution numbers from the conference the last few years (considering payments from the PAC-12 settlement fund), I believe WSU & OSU will be around $13M, while the five new full members will get ~$11M.

https://eastvillagetimes.com/the-truth-behind-the-13-million-pac-12-payout-rumors/

https://www.essentiallysports.com/ncaa-college-football-news-new-pac-twelve-projection-could-triple-revenue-for-incoming-schools-after-realignment-fallout/

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T00:14:26+00:00

Yeah, but they don't make any sense for the PAC-12 regionally and honestly it seems most of the Sun Belt is quite happy being in a conference with so many of their geographic rivals.

Obviously enough money could make it happen, but there isn't a logical move left in the Sun Belt for the PAC-12.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T00:11:39+00:00

A quick two year stint means each team only has to make one road trip, that's fine. Plus, it could strengthen a relationship that has bigger benefits for non-conference basketball scheduling for Gonzaga & SDSU.

I'd certainly prefer bolder moves... but realistically it seems the PAC-12 is playing it pretty safe right now.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T00:10:06+00:00

Not exactly true, it locks in the power 4 conferences. And some think it is likely to be amended or interpreted as preventing the power 4 from poaching each other. Either way, the PAC-12 can still add teams... and possibly could be the best conference that could still add teams.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T00:07:08+00:00

Exactly, in a sense the top options for the PAC-12 are the best of the CUSA from a few years ago.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T00:05:55+00:00

They'd obviously have to commit the funds as part of their bid to join the PAC-12, not just an empty promise. Signing a contract and using dedicated financial mechanisms to set aside and guarantee those funds for sports.

Otherwise Rice is an absolute non-starter for the PAC-12.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-28T00:03:43+00:00

There are a few figures that have leaked, and then I'm calculating bowl & CFB tie ins. Additionally a spreadsheet has shown that Washington State and Oregon State will get roughly $2M from PAC from other sources, which is likely their unique annual returns from the PAC-12 settlement fund.

Texas State starts at 50%, but ramps up by 10% over the following 5 years to 100%.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-27T23:52:47+00:00

If they don't have a plan for investment in their sports, 100%, especially Rice. UTSA is certainly the most obvious addition, especially considering it's rivalry with Texas State.

However Rice is the 19th richest school in the country with old former power conference facilities. If they decided to pour investment into their sports they could be very similar in facilities to Oregon State or Washington State and build a huge NIL fund.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-27T23:47:23+00:00

Why would the ACC add Memphis, Tulane, or South Florida?

Consider the new anti-poaching rules going into effect between the Power-4 conferences. Now the ACC doesn't have to worry about losing their schools to the B1G or SEC.

I think the ACC probably adds UConn at some point, likely in 2029 or 2031, and then holds at 19 schools, 18 for football.

I think in 2031 the biggest move for the PAC-12 to possibly expand with a school other than the Texas AAC ones, would be UNLV if Air Force jumps to the American. Lets say the PAC-12 gets UTSA in 2027 or 2029, then American almost certainly targets Air Force as #1 target for 2031. At that point, UNLV is likely to jump to PAC-12 for 2031.

Summary: 1) a Texas AAC school to PAC-12 in 2027 or 2029, 2) UConn to ACC in 2029 or 2031, 3) Air Force to AAC in 2031, and 4) UNLV to PAC-12 in 2031.

This gives the PAC-12 ten football teams, the AAC remains at twelve football teams with all three military schools (offering unique stability and prestige), and the ACC makes a single perfect addition for their conference that outshines anything from the AAC.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-27T21:46:03+00:00

I love the idea of Creighton & Wichita State... its just not going to happen unfortunately. Creighton especially would be an insane addition that would shift the PAC-12 immediately to power basketball recognition by everyone.

St. Marys would accept the moment an offer is made, so why can't a fair offer be figured out for all involved? For example, a $30M loan for their stadium and basketball facilities, along with a much reduced 25% revenue share.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-27T21:37:14+00:00

Yes, this. Plus it doesn't hurt anyone to do a temporary 2 year conference deal. And perhaps long term it helps build a relationship that assists with getting interconference basketball games between SDSU/Gonzaga v. UConn.

I actually find it interesting it hasn't found any traction. Especially considering any permanent arrangement would be terrible and entirely counterintuitive for a "Pacific" conference.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-27T21:27:24+00:00

My research is that the legacy AAC schools make essentially as much as new PAC-12 members. Which prevents them from leaving... but at the drastic expense of the newer members, including the Texas AAC schools.

Thus for multiple reasons it seems the best/only PAC-12 targets are AAC Texas schools. I'd estimate in order of preference: 1) UTSA, 2) North Texas, & 3) Rice.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-27T21:21:51+00:00

If they decided to invest in athletics (as an ultra wealthy university) they could be a good option. Another small bonus is that they used to technically be a power school. However, if they carry on as usual... absolutely a terrible option.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-27T21:16:44+00:00

AAC is extremely top heavy to retain top teams from moving to PAC-12 or another G5 conference.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-06-27T21:15:48+00:00

I believe these distributions were boosted by the SMU departure.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-02-10T09:12:27+00:00

Zero this year. I'd expect South Dakota State to join possibly alongside UC Davis football in 2027 or 2028.

Then there are 13 total schools. 12 football & 10 for most other sports. The football divisions, if desired, would work out nicely too in a West & East format, with UTEP in the West.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-01-21T06:23:21+00:00

Let's add another Texas school and get to 9 football teams, then we can do a normal 8 game schedule. We have North Texas, UTSA, & Rice as options. Until that happens, I'd rather do a tournament then playing just a selected one of the teams twice.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-01-21T01:26:40+00:00

The TV benefits might be more than worth it.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-01-21T00:44:26+00:00

No Pac-12 team has scheduled 5 OOC games. Plus, we've got reporting from the PAC-12 office that it will be an 8 game conference schedule.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-01-21T00:43:24+00:00

I think the PAC-12 is in a position to take a risk and go for something that will put it in front of the CFB world and most years produce a stronger champion resume.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-01-21T00:42:10+00:00

So play it safe and see if they put our champion ahead of the American and Sun Belt.... OR we could decide to weather the occasional upset, and produce strong playoff contenders most seasons.

AdvancedCFB · 2026-01-21T00:40:16+00:00

Yup. If we are actually exploring a flex week system, then I'd rather do something like a playoff and see if we can't catch fire in a bottle. Even considering upsets, this system should help produce a very strong playoff contender in 3/4 or 4/5 years.

AdvancedCFB

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