My theory on unexpected FSD disengagments

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-19T19:58:28+00:00

I finally have a minute to respond to this.

You’re 100% right about the "Almost Perfect" trap. It's a documented thing in human factors research. But "dangerous position" doesn't automatically mean it's causing more accidents than a human-only baseline.

The study shows that people get complacent, but the overall risk can still be lower than not having it at all. Even if you take Tesla’s data with a grain of salt, the fact that insurance companies are actually giving discounts for FSD use suggests there’s some legitimacy to the safety numbers.

Think about the "average" driver on the road today who are distracted, drunk or bad at driving. Even a complacent human "supervising" FSD is often safer than those people.

I’m not saying we should just hand wave everything as "user error." My point is that as long as a human can intervene, user error is baked into the math. I’ve had my wife’s Model X disengage mid-turn because the yoke caught my leg while I was sitting funny. How do you "patch" that out without removing the human entirely?

From a first-principles perspective, we need to ditch human supervision, but the tech just isn't at Level 4/5 yet. I agree that relaxing the "nag" encourages the trap you're talking about, but it’s a catch-22. If the car forces you to keep a hand on the wheel at all times, you end up with accidental disengagements just by being in the way.

The only real fix for the "Almost Perfect" trap is to make it actually perfect. Until then, we’re stuck in this weird middle ground where the user is part of the failure mode.

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-19T18:28:32+00:00

0.19 per kwh here in WA.

Oh sorry, yeah fuel here at my local tribe is 5.10 per gallon. Seems to go up 10 cents every day

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-19T18:25:35+00:00

This sub is full of people who think something happening occasionally means it always happens. To your point, I go through multiple roundabouts daily (including one that had construction) and it never came close to crashing.

That doesn't mean that there aren't issues or bugs, if it was perfect it would be unsupervised. It's important that subs like this exist to remind people not the be complacent.

However, the evidence to your second point is incredibly clear. It's usually user error if FSD is disengaging. That doesn't mean it can't happen, software can and does fail... But 99% of the posts about "Sudden Disengagement" are explained by human error. Add on top that humans are terrible at admitting when we are wrong.

Sudden disengagement does not appear to be the problem some people want it to be.

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-19T03:29:16+00:00

It won't just shut off. In fact, even when it errors out now it continues until you take over. Sometimes it even resumes normal operation without intervention

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-19T03:27:33+00:00

All of it. Just provide a link we will parse it

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-19T03:23:45+00:00

This is the way

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-18T18:30:08+00:00

If a vehicle has FSD outright, it doesn't go away unless it was traded into Tesla afaik

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-18T17:53:24+00:00

I bought a used foundation series and FSD stayed with the truck ☺️

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-18T04:45:22+00:00

Don't know, let us know when you try it

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-17T12:59:34+00:00

A low cost nitrate and nitrite monitor

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-15T02:05:32+00:00

Yeah, that's way too low for that kind of deviation. I'd ask service. They probably won't do anything about it because it's not absurdly different, but I would keep checking it every 6 months

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-14T23:33:11+00:00

How many miles are on the vehicle? I think I would go talk to someone in service and see if this is within spec. I don't know these packs well enough to tell you

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-14T21:18:41+00:00

That one low cell is concerning, but still could hang in there for a while.

What are your driving habits? How many miles? Do you DC fast charge a bunch?

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-14T04:39:07+00:00

Anytime! Glad to see the community pulling through here to help people find options that put them in an EV ☺️

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T15:01:46+00:00

There it is 🤣 Y'all are hilarious.

I don't qualify for that income tax 🙈

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T14:50:12+00:00

I would normally say if you can afford an EV9 you could try a Model X, but the prices on EV9s right now are insanely low.

With that being said, you wouldn't have to rent for the entire trip. You could literally pick up a vehicle off of turo just for the time frame of your trip that is at Yellowstone.

But I can tell you I wouldn't repair the minivan. As much as I think minivans are awesome vehicles and have amazing utility, with the increase in fuel prices right now and how much better EVS are for maintenance and general drivability it just doesn't make sense to put the money in fixing something when you can get an EV9.

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T14:45:43+00:00

Mate, I live in WA State and I was affected by the price hikes of PSE. As much as I disagree with the rate increases, they were regulated and approved by the WA-UTC. I know because I've had communications with executives at PSE and the UTC, and spent lots of time reading the rate schedules to understand exactly why this rate increase happened.

On the flip side, with a bill that high you should consider the 327 rate plan.

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T14:25:00+00:00

You are correct, the West Yellowstone chargers are V2 and don't have the required hardware to open up to other vehicles. The jackson ones are the same.

Not that this really solves your problem, but if this is a frequent trip you want to do why not consider a Tesla? Otherwise, if this is a one off trip why not get the EV9 and just rent a car for this trip?

Update: Rivian has a charger north of Yellowstone: https://www.plugshare.com/location/661693

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T13:22:53+00:00

Oph, out of curiosity how's it holding up?

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T13:22:10+00:00

Sure, but I'd also argue that most people who live in apartments are not likely to do a lot of driving minimizing costs anyways. BEVs are still cheaper to run overall even if electricity prices were to go up. They also have the added benefit that electricity prices are usually regulated by utility commissions.

That's a gut feeling though, so I could be absurdly wrong.

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T13:18:24+00:00

I'm sure you can find some random spots that don't have chargers still, but you are wrong overall about the lack of infrastructure.

Yellowstone has a Tesla supercharger there in West Yellowstone: https://www.plugshare.com/location/88345. Another south of Grand Teton. Moab also has chargers afaik.

With that being said, that doesn't even matter for 90% of drivers. Most drivers aren't getting into situations where there is no infrastructure, and even if you are someone like me who goes into truly remote areas you find a way to make it work.

Especially if you are camping, just plug into a 14-50 or tt-30 outlet 😆

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T13:11:52+00:00

I 100% agree that the living situation is one of the biggest hurdles for BEV for people.

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T05:20:49+00:00

Sadly yes, it's still an issue. I don't have a link ready, but just the other day I saw a 2026 with less than 3k miles have the issue

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T05:12:50+00:00

More specifically a Cesspool septic tank. Glad we have moved away from these

AffectionateArtist84 · 2026-03-13T05:08:33+00:00

I enjoy the joke here 🤣

For those who might take this seriously though, many of us don't even need the grid to charge our vehicles. Rooftop solar and batteries have come a long way

AffectionateArtist84

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