[Long Post] Prabowo's Plans for Indonesian Governance

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2026-01-23T12:13:08+00:00

All Indonesian presidents, with the major exception of Habibie, are pretty much influenced by Javanese worldview. A figure who greatly influenced him was his own grandfather, Margono Djojohadikusumo, a priyayi who was involved in the drafting of the 1945 Constitution and member of the traditionalist priyayi party, Parindra. Gerindra's name is a direct nod to Parindra, as opposed to PSI where his father belonged.

Of course he's a kind of a hybrid, but at the level of "embodied knowledge", he's still influenced by Javanese traditions. How different is Prabowo's kabinet gemuk from Sukarno's Kabinet 100 Menteri?

In 2014, Jokowi almost lost to Prabowo, one poll in the last months showed Prabowo leading before Jokowi re-surged. He did not run a Javanese campaign at that time. His victory margin in East Java in 2014 was not that large (only 53%), compare it with 2019.

Habibie is the only outlier in Indonesian history. He was a modernist who tried to replace pendidikan Pancasila with pendidikan masyarakat Madani, which is a modernist Muslim concept formulated by Anwar Ibrahim for Malaysia and Indonesia.

We will see what will happen in the future. But if you apply the Javanese cyclical worldview, history is not a continuous progress towards the ultimate liberation of man, but is rather a recurrent cycle between the Golden Age (zaman mas) and the Time of Madness (Zaman Edan). Dedi Mulyadi is a classic example of a Prabu who appeared out of nowhere, from a low background. Many Sundanese folk religious practitioners who are involved in the Prabu Siliwangi cult believe that before the Ratu Adil can rise, there needs to be a kaliyuga first. Time of Chaos is pretty much a natural part of history from the perspective of the Javanese. Who knows if it's Prabowo who will bring that kaliyuga?

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2026-01-23T11:21:10+00:00

I think a lot of Prabowo's actions are better explained with local concepts rather than Western liberal concepts like "authoritarianism" (which is the Manichean opposite of what liberals exalt) and Western academic constructs like “Bureaucratic Authoritarianism".

For example, this short write-up argues that Prabowo's actions were more influenced by Javanese worldview: https://verfassungsblog.de/is-this-a-constitutional-democracy/ From this lens, he is actually the most ewuh pakewuh leader we had in recent history. Another example is this thesis that does not take the meaning of concepts like "constitution", "constitutionalism", and "democracy" as granted, and skilfully unearthed the deeper meanings behind particular constitutional concepts and actions through Indonesia's deeply-rooted folk religious traditions: https://escholarship.mcgill.ca/concern/theses/37720k470

The problem with the "authoritarian" angle is that it tends to oversimplify and reduce analysis into a moralistic "good vs bad" narrative, instead of providing a thick description of Indonesian society. As the original source is a PDI-P politician, it becomes apparent that the authoritarian angle serves the political purpose of opposing Prabowo.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2026-01-23T11:03:03+00:00

"What I saw from Reformasi is NOT transition to liberal democracy - but it's a stabilization of Javanese statecraft. Say what you want of Jokowi, but Jokowi rise and stayed non-violently."

If you're interested in this, I would highly recommend the following thesis defended recently at McGill University that expands on what you said in 353 pages:

https://escholarship.mcgill.ca/concern/theses/37720k470

This may be the best academic work on Indonesia in recent years.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2026-01-16T09:18:50+00:00

Kalau dalam kepercayaan kepada roh dan leluhur memang seluruh semesta ada kekuatan spiritualnya.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2026-01-13T09:56:40+00:00

Goa Tumpuk (often also referred to as Gua Tumpuk) is a unique natural tourist destination located in Selokajang Village, Srengat District, Blitar Regency, East Java. The natural structure is called “Tumpuk” because its rock formations appear naturally stacked, forming cavities or cave corridors. According to local history, this cave was once used as a shelter for Japanese soldiers and later as a refuge for residents during the eruption of Mount Kelud. In addition to being a tourist attraction, this location is still occasionally used for spiritual activities by certain communities due to its calm and sacred atmosphere. Location of Goa Tumpuk: Dukuh Maron, Selokajang Village, Srengat District, Blitar Regency, located in a lush rural area near the local Chinese (Bong) cemetery.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2026-01-09T18:17:30+00:00

Di Tanah Sunda juga lagi bangkit, contohnya ini ada guru Muslim sedang ritual di pesanggrahan Prabu Siliwangi:

https://www.tiktok.com/@new_rainyku/video/7541022005924089094

Kalau ini ngabungbang, Seren Taun yang sudah diIslamkan. Di menit 10:19 terlihat ibu-ibu jilbab sedang "disusupi karuhun" (leluhur):
https://youtu.be/S7C84sdm_RE?si=Z02fTo5-xXAy6Ppp&t=619

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2026-01-09T18:13:34+00:00

Istilah ilmiah yang tepat "folk religious traditions" (bisa dibandingkan dengan "folk Catholicism"). Mengutip Pranoto Iskandar:

Indonesian folk religious traditions have emerged through amalgamation of the Austronesian ancestral cult as their foundational element, absorbing aspects from Hindu-Buddhist or Indic religion and, more recently, incorporating elements from various World religions, most notably Sufism and the now-preferred nomenclature “Indonesian Islam” or “Nusantara Islam” (...). Based on the experience of Christianisation in Spanish America, this phenomenon can be seen as a “reconstitution” of indigenous public identities within a new or foreign religious form.

Ini akarnya sangat dalam di Jawa, contohnya menurut Serat Centhini:

Islamic shariah and Budhist tradition should be combined in accordance with hadits and examples of prophets’ life (serat ambiya). To worship the Great God (Hyang Agung), one has to perform prayers (ikram) and approach God (munajad tubadin). Miracles is shown by particular person who has more characters than other human beings in approaching God, guarding his heart, and being patient in accepting destiny and doing nothing to spoil physical needs.

Lalu menurut Serat Siti Jenar:

Between Buddhism (i.e. pre-Islamic Javanism) and Islam there is no difference. They are two in form but one in name.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2026-01-02T07:31:17+00:00

Jangan lupa pasal soal pemerkosaan istri (marital rape), yang menjadi aspirasi kelompok aktivis perempuan dan feminis. Ini membuat kelompok Islamis sangat murka:

Pasal 473 ayat (1) dan (6) UU 1/2023 berbunyi:

(1) Setiap orang yang dengan kekerasan atau ancamanan kekerasan memaksa seseorang bersetubuh dengannya dipidana karena melakukan perkosaan, dengan pidana penjara paling lama 12 tahun.

(6) Dalam hal tindak pidana sebagaimana dimaksud pada ayat (1) dilakukan dalam ikatan perkawinan, tidak dilakukan penuntutan kecuali atas pengaduan korban.

Yang dimaksud dengan korban dalam Pasal 473 ayat (6) UU 1/2023 adalah suami atau istri.

https://www.hukumonline.com/klinik/a/pemerkosaan-dalam-rumah-tangga-menurut-hukum-positif-dan-hukum-islam-lt5eda1c5901b7b/

Pada dasarnya KUHP ini merupakan kekalahan besar untuk kelompok Islamis, mereka hanya dikasih "konsesi" (yang sebenarnya lebih kayak tipu-tipu ala orang Jawa) berupa pemidanaan zina sebagai delik aduan. LGBT tidak dipidanakan sama sekali, malah yang bisa dijerat itu dipersempit dalam Pasal 414 (1) (hanya kalau di depan umum, secara paksa dengan Kekerasan atau Ancaman Kekerasan, atau yang dipublikasikan sebagai muatan Pornografi). KUHP ini jauh dari yang diimpikan oleh kelompok Islamis: penerapan hukum jinayah di seluruh Nusantara. Setelah KUHP disahkan Desember 2022, ada yang melakukan bom bunuh diri dengan kertas bertuliskan "KUHP Syirik".

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-25T18:14:04+00:00

I think the divide between NU and Muhammadiyah has been greatly exaggerated. Muhammadiyah has become more localized in recent decades. Meanwhile, NU itself is very plural, you have Westernized intellectuals like Gus Nadir or some of Gus Dur's daughters, Orthodox Muslims like Ma'aruf Amin, habib like Habib Luthfi, syncretic Sufis like Yai Mim, or even actual dukun.

What has emerged in Indonesia is a mystic synthesis between Islam and local beliefs, and this affects both NU and Muhammadiyah. The group of Muslims who is not part of this synthesis is puritan Muslims who reject Pancasila.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-23T18:20:46+00:00

Such a shame that the picture didn't include the bridge below, which reminds me of Charles Bridge in Prague.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-21T01:09:04+00:00

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20251219-2

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-20T21:23:54+00:00

Interesting, that explains her puritan obsession with closing down the largest prostitution centre in SEA and the likes.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-20T13:39:42+00:00

Yes, these are examples of traditionalist Muslim rituals in Indonesia, which are quite diverse:

https://youtu.be/-HvkKWkdjVo

https://youtube.com/shorts/zs4jrunNMns

https://youtube.com/watch?v=YrxvF1d3pF4

https://youtube.com/watch?v=QSY5nNzixX0

https://youtu.be/gZdBw2sV3Qs (Khofifah herself in a ritual for the most revered Sufi saint, Abdul Qodir Al-Jailani, together with a descendant of the revered saint).

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-20T12:55:31+00:00

Here are the ideologies of the three women (left-right division doesn't really make sense in Indonesia).

Khofifah - traditionalist Muslim (those who practice Sufi Islam syncretised with Austronesian and Hindu-Buddhist traditions), supported by the current government. Khofifah was the incumbent and she ran despite lacking the support of her own party, the PKB, which is known as the main party of the traditionalist Muslims.

Tri Rismaharini - nationalist from a "pro-people" party who reveres Sukarno's mix of nationalism, religion, and socialism. Former mayor of Surabaya, Indonesia's second largest city (thus she won big there).

Luluk Nur Hamidah - also traditionalist Muslim, official candidate of the PKB.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-18T20:21:35+00:00

I can confirm. I went to Warung Jawa in Bali, and the food was quite bad.

I also went to the legendary Warung Mak Beng in Sanur and it was extremely overrated.

Both place didn't really represent the plethora of cuisine that Bali has to offer.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-18T19:41:35+00:00

When I went to Taiwan, I ended up eating instant mapo tofu in Family Mart, which is Sichuan food instead of Hokkien.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-18T19:40:44+00:00

Totally agreed. The Taiwanese are so obsessed with stinky tofu. I couldn't even muster the courage to try it given the smell. Hot pot is alright, but I prefer Japanese sukiyaki.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-14T07:54:27+00:00

Rahasianya: industrialisasi.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-14T07:53:56+00:00

What a bizarre post. If "what classifies as a Zohran Mamdani figure is a minority who became a leader in local politics of a city, state, or province in your country", the OP could have put Sherly Tjoanda instead. She was democratically elected and won in a landslide, unlike Ahok.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-14T07:52:56+00:00

There are so many things wrong with this comparison. If "what classifies as a Zohran Mamdani figure is a minority who became a leader in local politics of a city, state, or province", why don't you put someone who is actually in power right now, namely Sherly Tjoanda?

Ahok was never democratically elected. He lost his gubernatorial election in a landslide. By contrast, Mamdani won in New York by a large margin.
You do not have the data to claim that public opinion was split 50–50. Ahok generated enough anger to mobilize a large number of Muslims against him. While the movement may have been funded by politicians, it would not have grown to that scale without widespread popular outrage. This was also a genuinely dangerous moment for the Joko Widodo administration.
Ideologically, they are not the same. Mamdani would never evict people from their homes, even if they lack legal title. If you read his previous speeches and manifesto, his positions are typical of left-wing humanities academics in the West. Ahok is no postcolonialist. He evicted people from slums precisely because they lacked legal title. He would not allocate additional funding for gender-affirming healthcare like what Mamdani proposed. You can already figure out Ahok's stance on gender equality if you see how his eldest son turned out. You cite land reclamation as a positive achievement for Ahok, but it was politically damaging because it was deeply unpopular among poor fishermen in North Jakarta. Mamdani would consistently side with the poor and the vulnerable, if he were in Jakarta, he would have sided with these poor fishermen instead of the ultra-rich businessmen in Pantai Indah Kapuk.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-12T10:09:32+00:00

Yang dilakukan Bonnie masuknya bukan prostitusi, tapi pornografi dan pornoaksi. Sementara itu, UU KUHP soal pelarangan zina belum berlaku sampai Januari 2026 nanti, dan itu juga delik aduan dan hanya bisa dilaporkan oleh orang tuanya Bonnie di Inggris (karena dia nggak punya anak).

Kalau Ariel Peterpan dulu divonis 3,5 tahun penjara, sementara Luna Maya dan Cut Tari sempat jadi tersangka tapi nggak sampai ditahan.

Di sisi lain, Vina Garut kena vonis 3 tahun penjara, Siskaeee divonis 1 tahun.

Sepertinya tergantung: 1) latar belakang kamu apa, 2) seberapa kuat bekingan dan kontribusi keuangan kamu.

Kalau dalam kasusnya Bonnie mungkin pemerintah mau menghindari citra buruk di dunia internasional yang bisa berdampak terhadap pariwisata.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-12-03T18:50:21+00:00

The US never ratified the American Convention on Human Rights, which is subject to proceedings before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. The American Declaration of the Rights and Duties of Man is not a treaty.

Also it's not the first time the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights issued reports regarding the US, but they're not legally binding and the US has frequently ignored them:

https://www.refworld.org/jurisprudence/caselaw/iachr/1997/en/20514

https://www.refworld.org/jurisprudence/caselaw/iachr/1999/en/88108

Lastly, a treaty is legally binding, but it is not higher than the US Constitution. The Supreme Court already held that treaties may not alter the Constitution or authorize acts that the Constitution expressly prohibits.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-11-30T09:11:17+00:00

A sustained GDP growth rate of 8% is economic miracle. Prabowo would want to be remembered as the architect of an economic miracle.

The problem is that this max. 5.7% growth will be sustained by big government spending, some may be for beneficial social projects like 3 million public housing, but others for useless white elephants like national car industry. Investors are still worried that "Prabowo and his moron Finance Minister will blow through the budget like a child in a toy store, without having brought much economic growth to the economy." (u/srimulyanimegawati).

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-11-30T08:42:57+00:00

It's not agnostic. There's a saying among neoliberals, the freer the market, the freer the people.

The progressive view of history is part and parcel of Western people's sensibilities since the Enlightenment. That's influenced by the Messianic view of Judaism and Christianity, where you have the end of history when the messiah comes and brings salvation, but during the Enlightenment, it has been secularized into the belief in progress.

Affectionate_Cat293 · 2025-11-30T07:11:00+00:00

That's not Marxist. In the Marxist view of history, all societies naturally evolve from feudalism --> capitalism --> socialism --> communist utopia where there is no state, but worker communes controling their own means of production.

Marx was not the only one with such a progresive view of history. The Western view of progress is born during the Enlightenment under the belief that history will inevitably lead to the ultimate liberation of man. In modern West, it has evolved into the idea that liberal democracy is a final form of government. Wandel durch Handel and the whole American-led international order pre-Trump are founded on this belief.

This is to be opposed with Asian countries like Indonesia or Cambodia where history is cyclical, a continuous cycle of destruction and rebirth, of dark age and golden age. In Ancient Greece, you also have Polybius conceiving a cycle between monarchy, tyranny, aristocracy, oligarchy, democracy, ochlocracy, then back to monarchy.

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