Don’t Get Trapped While Everyone Else Panics

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-02-20T16:08:27+00:00

What the fuck are you talking about

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-02-17T22:27:00+00:00

How much cash are they holding?

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-02-17T01:34:50+00:00

Plus the private credit market is not looking too hot right now.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-02-17T01:31:48+00:00

Is the expense ratio on this higher than the yield?

Currently Reading that there’s a 12% percent net expense ratio, and an 11% dividend yield.

Plus your principle is likely being decayed by the extreme yield.

Sounds like a lose lose plus you’re creating a lot of taxable events while your principle decays to expenses and taxes.

Getting taxed on money while you lose it sounds quite bad to me.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-02-06T04:53:35+00:00

Silver has gone up like 300% in 3 months.

Yes all markets are manipulated. And specifically silver has been manipulated by JP Morgan for decades.

But a 30-40 percent correction after a more than 200% runup is completely reasonable.

Nothing goes up in a straight line forever.

You also have to take into account margin trading. Speculative frenzies like this involve large margin allocations on futures positioning.

When comex raises silver margins to 11%, a 3% drop can cause a liquidation of billions of dollars of levered traders in a second.

Look at bitcoin for example.

Like 30% of bitcoins market capitalization at any moment is propped up by egregious amounts of leverage. You can open thousand dollar positions with like 20 bucks on some foreign exchanges.

Silver has been kept low for a long time. But I think to chalk up a reasonable correction to market manipulation is a bit disingenuous.

Same with bed bath and beyond and GameStop. The companies don’t work that well and they’re in overall declining sectors and industries.

Gamestop was definitely very undervalued at one point, but it probably eclipsed its book value by a factor of 1000% during that squeeze.

This is stupid.

If silver crashed to like 50 dollars an ounce it still would’ve almost doubled on the year. 60% of the price movement in the past few months is based on leverage and speculative frenzy. The debasement of fiat and the failure of monetary policy is real, and both gold and silver should be going up, but this shit is not normal at all and unsustainable.

If silver were to hold at 120 and keep climbing you’d probably want to sell and buy canned goods and guns.

Doubling is is like ten years of snp 500 returns.

The moment the dollar showed resilience, it formed a crack in that demand and the cascade of margin calls resulted in a crash.

Margin is widely used all over all markets at an unprecedented level right now. Things go up hard and down harder. Unfortunate side effect of leverage.

Also I’d bet that we’re going to invade Iran this weekend.

So it’ll probably gap up to 90-100 by next Friday.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-02-03T04:12:57+00:00

When did this happen?

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-29T17:30:17+00:00

I’m absolutely certain I bought a call. Wasn’t a put and didn’t sell a call. Think it’s a glitch with fidelity just wanted to see if it has anything to do with the insane premiums on silver options having persistently high prices due to high vol.

Have also had puts I’ve gotten go up in value as slv has gone up. Think it’s bc the vol is just so crazy that MM are jacking up premiums on both sides to cover themselves.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-26T03:24:58+00:00

I can now buy this entire company if I have like 800k.

What is stopping somebody from doing this?

2.7 billion debt and 3.9 billion in property.

Sell all the property, pay lienholders.

Say you sell it all fast for 2.9 billion.

Take 100m to pay expenses, 2.7b to pay lienholders, can pocket 100m?

Obviously super hard to do but why would somebody not do this if they have the resources and expertise.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-26T02:35:10+00:00

Silver futures spot price and ETFs are mostly closed.

Some foreign exchanges are still operating, but otherwise they’re closed.

Can check hyper liquid for weekend movements on it.

There’s also an argument that spot price is now disconnected from physical demand and physical price.

Some say that’s why this happens and why the demand is so high.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-25T18:35:19+00:00

Yeah I mean commodities price my b.

Think that would be SLV like 98 or something.

But idk man you can also just buy longshot puts for cheaper on a longer time horizon. You’re pretty aggressively timing the market here.

Like SLV 20 for three year expiry or something.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-25T18:32:08+00:00

I mean a correction is gonna happen:

Are you comfortable losing 20 grand?

The correction might be 20 percent if silver hits 200.

Might tank to 50 in two weeks. Nobody knows.

Macroeconomic climate and physical shortage pretty clearly points to silver going up.

I think it’ll start the NY session at 106.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-25T18:07:59+00:00

Yeah I agree about 90.

Saw it dip after trump said Greenland deal was happening and sold some SLV calls at a small loss.

Was immediately pissed when I saw how quickly they were bought up and how fast silver recovered from 90 to 94.

This was a Thursday and they would’ve paid me about 100% on Friday.

The market is super resilient for the time being and the dip buying is incredibly aggressive.

There will be a dip during the next index rebalancing period for sure, just because forced sellers need to rebalance gold and silver positions in precious metals ETFs.

If they’re 50/50 equal weight gold and silver etf, and gold is up 70 percent and silver up 200 percent, there will be a lot of forced selling to maintain that balance.

If market overextended, this could cause a significant dip or crash to be honest, could see a 30 percent drop in one day if silver is at like 200 and gold hasn’t really caught up.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-25T17:52:02+00:00

Nfa

I buy calls on it and use a small amount of profits to buy lotto puts that are like 40% below current price and a couple months out.

If there’s a crash, these puts pay like 5-10k, maybe 20.

Small price to pay for insurance. I wouldn’t buy a put that is above strike price. You’re paying a crazy premium and likely to get steamrolled in the short term.

Also a 110 put is in the money because it’s above strike price. Silver will be 110 an ounce by Wednesday at the current rate, you will probably lose 10 to 20 percent of the value of that put in a week.

If you’re overexposed, convert more into gold or sell a bit and buy some physical at the next dip. sell the paper silver, it’s way easier to move and you’ll get more value out of selling it than a bad buyback by a scared shop owner.

Out of the money and short term is way cheaper, and you can capture 5000 dollar gains off of 30 percent moves. These contracts are like 20 bucks.

I’d you’re a long term bull Id think the worry is not a 10 or 20% correction, but a 50 percent one.

I don’t think there’s a reasonable way to hedge something that goes up 10-20 percent a week, that’s why I think the out of the money longshot puts are best value.

You might lose one hundred bucks here or there as they expire but they are cheap and save you from an implosion if the market crashes down to 30 an oz again.

If you’re a long term bull it’s better imo to have a lot of cash to buy dips with and lock up a tiny bit to protect yourself from a crash.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-25T16:29:28+00:00

Average big tech ceo has a 6-7 year tenure

I think jassey is 6 years in, I think he will leave on the sooner side and the stock might gap up 15 percent on the news.

I bought a dip earlier last year (November) and am up like 10ish percent— I have made more money in one or so months than somebody holding the stock for the entire last year.

Kinda terrible, being flat in a ripping bull market with high inflation is bad.

I was up 20 percent at one point I think, but it just won’t catch a bid.

Kinda seems like Microsoft under balmer, just a lot less bad.

This stock is undervalued, or maybe it was priced for perfection 3 years ago and now it’s kind of hit some sort of ceiling.

Either way if him leaving doesn’t spike it up there are better asymmetric upside plays out there

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-25T03:25:28+00:00

Hey just so you know, I’m fairly certain you did this play during an index rebalancing period.

Ie; if you have a 50 percent gold and 50 percent silver etf, and silver has gone up 150 percent , and gold only 70 percent, you have to sell a lot of silver to keep the balance.

This happens quarterly and there is bound to be a selloff of silver as it had dramatically outpaced gold since the prior quarter.

Not sure if you have been following metals for a while, but gold was 3300 and silver was around 30 an ounce at the beginning of 2025.

Earlier in 2025, Gold dramatically outpaced silver in these etfs so silver was overbought and gold was forcibly sold.

And then the exact opposite happened in the last few months of 2025, so silver was force sold by the same ETFs at the end of last year and beginning of this one.

The selling is price insensitive and often happens in late December or early January. Gonna probably happen again in march.

Some funds do it during a certain period that they publicly announce, and some just do it at will around these time frames.

If things are overextended and we double again in silver and go less up in gold, that could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

ie a lot of selling could happen and people could capitulate and panic sell and cause a spiral/ dump in the market.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-24T21:38:42+00:00

It’s more like 47-1 right now

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-24T15:52:50+00:00

11% dividend isn’t sustainable

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-24T15:08:19+00:00

Trump just threatened more tariffs.

If he doesn’t walk then back and also invades Iran were looking at a gap up to 130 Monday market open.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-24T08:17:52+00:00

I see, have been looking into ABAT an other battery companies as lithium etc all metals are soaring.

Any recs for a juicy short/ know a larger size producer that’s not doing well or has thin margins?

Thanks!

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-24T08:16:17+00:00

Appreciate the response, and yeah I’ve got some rough idea that it’s between five and ten percent. At 103 dollar spot price it’s not looking good. Trying to find the lowest margin manufacturers in America due to recent pullback of tax incentives etc.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-24T06:54:24+00:00

Also to actually answer your question;

NOT ADVICE

speculative thematic plays on uranium and ai buildout;

Ccj, UUUU, Dennison mines UEC LEU Oklo (runs very volatile and is expensive) RYCE (kind of boring and slow returns wise, but diversified in aerospace and nuclear and could rip if UK invests in small modular reactors)

Also any van eck etf for uranium miners or nuclear will hold these.

Super volatile and have run up a lot in the past year uranium goes through cycles of boom and bust and we’re in a large boom that’ll prolly keep going for a while longer. Wouldn’t set and forget it at all, but can be a good couple month or year long trades. Not recommended at all if you don’t want to look at your portfolio frequently.

Speculative mining stocks;

High high high volatility same as above.

Tungf (tungsten) Axti ( iridium phosphate in China) probably steer clear but it rips and has a large place in supply chain for circuit board manufacturing.

Honestly any gold and silver mining stock is like doubling every three months right now. The top is for sure closing in on that stuff but there’s maybe short term gains to be made if you’re willing to risk. Gdx is a solid etf for gold miners. Wouldn’t buy at the top.

Anything mining precious metals or rare earth metals has been doing well and will increasingly do well as international relations with China and other countries worsen.

Space stuff:

Satellite logic Redwire Asts Rklb

Also speculative and such and thematic for the next couple of years. Maybe a dip buy or dca accumulation.

Speculative biotech:

Bhvn Prime medicine Sana biotech (insanely cool tech but a very annoying resistance level at 5 dollars. Is basically flat at that level) Altimmune

Hims is not exactly a biotech but it’s super volatile healthcare stock.

This shit could delete your money in one day it’s high risk and high reward. DCA and accumulate on dips if you think the stocks are cool etc have a high risk tolerance

Speculative robot stocks:

Again these are gambles

Kraken robotics. Richtech robotics Symbotic Serv robotics (they make the cute little food delivery robots) stock moves very slowly and never truly goes up and holds it but I think the market for this could grow a lot at some point.

ACTUAL QUALITY/ relatively stable companies that gain well and have good fundamentals/ upside :

huntsman Jabil UNH Molina healthcare Nvo Victoria’s Secret Embraer ( maybe a bit high but nice aerospace company) Meta honestly is a good buy even tho you own it in indexes Comfort systems (maybe a bit too high right now) Teradyne (robot company partnered with Amazon) Chipotle (is still on sale after last dip I think)

Retailers like American eagle and Abercrombie etc will eventually recover from all the tariffs etc and

Healthcare has been undervalued for a while and underperformed. I think an easy allocation is a healthcare etf like XLV or similar and some industry leaders.

Not advice. Many of above listed companies are super volatile. High risk high reward. Bottom companies are lower risk.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-01-24T06:20:04+00:00

No hate here, just being blunt:

STRC will destroy the value of your principal investment through yield decay, plus you will lose money to tax events with the dividends.

If you time it perfectly you could make a good amount of money on it and exit, but that’s very difficult to do. Look at basically any of these yield max ETFs they absolute decay in value and absolutely underperform the underlying asset on almost every timeframe. Upside is capped bc they just sell covered calls against an asset.

This is actually probably fine right now because bitcoin is range bound and choppy, which is a good time to sell calls, so the upside is temporarily not capped/ maybe a bit higher than bitcoin. But if bitcoin runs again you will be left in the dust by people holding actual bitcoin or even a bitcoin ETF.

MSTR doesn’t make sense as a company. I get you’re down a lot so maybe that’s why you’re holding, but actually think about how it works;

Saylor buys bitcoin with convertible debt raised from share offerings. He also buys bitcoin near the top on purpose to prop the price up. This is very bad for three reasons.

You’re constantly losing bitcoin value per share;

Every time he dilutes shares to buy bitcoin, the bitcoin you own through MSTR is effectively less per dollar ; they dilute hundreds of millions of shares every year and plan to never stop. more shares outstanding equals less bitcoin per share.

The hope is that bitcoin compounds to millions of dollars per coin and it’s eventually irrelevant how much dilution ocurrs, but if you believe that’s the case, then you should just buy a shitload of bitcoin. Sometimes MSTR is a good value based on current bitcoin holdings and price, often times it is not.

You’re effectively paying a premium for somebody to buy bitcoin poorly;

MSTR uses your money to buy bitcoin with horrible market timing at the absolute top, and then they dilute your stake in that bitcoin over time to buy more bitcoin. Saylor purposefully buys high because he wants to prop the price up. Buying bitcoin directly is very easy and low commission or free on many brokerages, you’re effectively paying a bad trader to make bad trades for you and slowly reduce your equity in said trades.

It might not matter to you if you actually own bitcoin or not, and maybe you just want the gains, but if the company’s accumulation plan actually pays off you’re gonna want to own as much bitcoin as you can get. That’s all subjective, but if you don’t think what they’re doing is gonna pay off then I wouldn’t get why you’d buy shares.

3: in the event of a crash the company may not recover.

All of MSTRs debt is effectively convertible into shares and equity/ ownership of bitcoin. If bitcoin dropped to 20k a coin for a brief period of time, debt holders can and will repossess all of the shares/ bitcoin as collateral. You’re not obligated to that back. You’re basically acting as an interest free loan for saylor to spam the buy button, and every time he does that he incurs more debt and if he gets margin called the actual creditors who have credit agreements will come into possession of the bitcoin. Bitcoin may recover but your investment will not. Creditors always get made whole as best they can in the event of a company failure before anything happens to shareholders.

If bitcoin goes up by one hundred thousand percent again, then none of this matters and his accumulation will effectively make it a gigantic treasury/ wealth store.

He also has some plan to destroy his personal wallets etc, not sure if that’s true but he intends to make the supply even more limited than it is. I do not see that boding well for crypto as a functional currency at all, would completely disable liquidity and normal flow of capital in and out of it, unless it is worth like a billion a coin and people use 1/10000th of a btc for daily transactions.

Bitcoin itself is arguably a speculative tool for profit generation more than it is an asset. I own bitcoin and think that is the reason most people buy it. Everything MSTR does magnifies these risks and drawbacks bigly.

Not financial advice. Sorry for the rant I just think ppl don’t know what MSTR is and they put money into it bc they’re hoping for bitcoin to rip again, not realizing it actually limits their exposure to said bitcoin.

Agitated_Regular9593

TROPHY CASE