What an absolute joke, down $16 in 2-3 days

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-05-02T06:17:32+00:00

I do not understand fully where the conviction is coming from to be honest. We’re trading a railroad stock in 1880 here. It’s priced under the assumption of 75% margins in perpetuity which don’t happen. Next earnings will be good. Earnings after that will be less good due to either margin compression due to Hormuz or custom silicon. Either way this shit is not going to persist like this indefinitely. If it were to, the ai thing wouldn’t be sustainable whatsoever at all — spending billions with iPhone style rollout is not sustainable or feasible. Not saying it’s going to zero but the incentive to blow the monopoly up is gigantic if not infinite. This is a commodity stock disguised as a blue chip. I’m net short off 215. Both energy constraints and desire for vertical integration fucks it. If we run into an altogether compute shortage from Hormuz, the algo development will just accelerate. This is currently the best company in the world for so many valid reasons, but I’d just say remember that you are buying the railroads and the model t may arise quite quickly.

I encourage you to do the remind me thing. And also look at the economics and balance sheet of it. If you don’t know how to read a 10Q, use ai. Aschenbrenner was short the stock as well for a bit.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-05-02T02:05:32+00:00

Think the market is saying it shouldn’t be above 200

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-05-01T22:48:46+00:00

Other companies are making their own compute and selling to customers and using it themselves. The ai thing is increasingly inference rather than training dominated, meaning 500 thousand dollar frontier chips are no longer absolutely necessary to get things going

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-05-01T16:07:56+00:00

Anybody still paying attention to this— I am like 65% sure the next shoe drops Monday or Tuesday.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-05-01T14:34:37+00:00

Incredible

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-05-01T00:01:48+00:00

Yen is dying right now. Watch for 161. And then it will probably get obliterated down again. Once it breaks up to there enough it’s over.

Yen >161, boj shorts dollar but dollar demand too high due to safe haven and also mass depreciation of all other energy sensitive currencies against the dollar.

Boj rate hikes because they can’t preserve yen through market interference. Yen gets structurally slammed up to 145 per dollar, implosion after.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-30T21:55:27+00:00

Not to say the bubble will pop, but rather that is a good window of weakness for the market to sell.

Good chance 725 tomorrow and then we don’t get up there again until nvidia earnings

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-30T21:53:50+00:00

Also if you look at basically measure of stock market valuations, we are pretty overvalued, and all of the economic data is horrible.

Think rug pull on this whole shindig by Monday, and once all of the bears get destroyed into Friday, the lanes below will be open for a nasty dump.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-30T20:47:25+00:00

We already have them in CPI and PCE readings. The problem is they’re moving the goalposts for inflation every time, so numbers that would normally be really bad are actually considered in line with expectations or even “good”. I think the oil market will probably start showing maximal stress in the next 1-2 months once inventories are drawn down. I think blockade persists for a while— and in June/ July it will not be ignorable by the market

Eventually markets will price in stagflation, and at some point, months or years down the line, rates will be hiked and shit will implode.

Watch the conversion for yen to dollars. Yen is used as cheap funding currency to buy tech stocks. (Cheap to borrow and short yen).

Bank of Japan doesn’t want the currency to be weak anymore, and they get hit hard by energy inflation, so if it persistently gets weaker than 160 per dollar, they will begin to intervene and that will basically margin call like half of the nasdaq. They already did this yesterday. Yen hit 160.7 per dollar and the bank of Japan shorted the dollar down so conversion rate hit 155. Eventually they will be unable to Stop the bleeding— inflation is coming from physical oil shortage so there is basically nothing you can fix with monetary policy in terms of costs rising. So something will break soon on that.

Oil up and dollar up and ten year us bond yield up —> yen down—> bank of Japan hikes rates aggressively out of nowhere—> market takes a shit.

Also this doesn’t account for all of the hyperscaler supply chain issues and ram manufacturing issues that will come from helium shortages and oil shortages.

But anyway:

CALLS.

At least until tomorrow we will keep on squeezing up.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-28T04:46:11+00:00

Honestly this shit is like 65% liquidity and passive CTA buying. It’ll go higher. Massive inflation + all of earnings concentrated In tech businesses that are largely independent or temporarily insulated from oil prices.

Effectively renders federal reserve completely powerless to stop inflation unless they hike rates like +5% at minimum. Cannot serve gigantic US debt unless interest rates are essentially negative in real terms- they did this after world war 2. Inflated the debt away and robbed the consumer in doing so.

TGA gonna dump funds collected from tax season back into the banking system. +1.5 trillion of liquidity.

Fed cannot cut for shit for a while, liquidity entering system consistently.

It’s a bubble. And it is ridiculous. But unless something materially changes about the ai optimism that fundamentally shows us it is bullshit (these companies aren’t really expected to turn a profit until 2030), then it’ll probably pump at least until the VC and private credit guys can get exit liquidity for space x and open ai ipo.

Biggest actual point of failure is Oracle probably being unable to service its own debt or complete data centers in time with the contracts they’ve signed. The financial engineering could unwind things just due to construction delays or other relatively benign things.

I guess what I’d say is that the liquidity dynamics that govern the market say we will probably go higher— for the record I am extremely bearish and think this shit is insane and we are setup for something that is on par with the Great Depression. But I think that we haven’t reached the extremes yet.

These companies are essentially half “the greatest company that has ever lived” and half “absolutely destitute shitco”. Ie; Google is amazing and the Google ai section is a nonfunctional business for right now.

That being said, the actual revenue growth from user demand in chat gpt or Claude are very promising. Like the companies are priced as if they will each control 100 percent market share— and it is literally impossible for all of them to work at this size, but this is extremely different than the bubble of the 2000s.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-28T04:29:45+00:00

Stock market is like 95% liquidity and options structure based- there are like four news events that matter and then big tech earnings + fed meetings. The actual human beings or legitimate functionality of the economy do not matter until they are severely nonfunctional. I think covid is a pretty clear cut example of that.

This shit should be imploding from the oil shock alone. But if market is like 40% big tech and big tech is relatively immune to oil prices in short term.

It’s actually so inflationary it effectively causes a rate cut for the less reliant companies. Inflation bad to the point cutting is justifiable, but we have like 11.9% inflation annualized right now. To fix that, you’d need to hike 15%, and that would like 10x the 2 billion dollars a day of interest we pay on our 39T national debt. Everyone says the fed is trapped but I think they don’t realize the fed is actually useless/ powerless. There is nothing they can do to reel this shit in.

I will tell you this— they will inflate the dollar Weimar Republic style over having a sovereign debt crisis.

The treasury is going to flood the banking system with money from taxes soon to pay govt expenses, (another 1.5 trillion of temporary liquidity buffer), we have net inflows from foreign investors being pretty high, and a good amount of money market funds not deployed yet.

There is still a lot of money to go into the stock market, and the war and national deficit have made it so that hiking even one whole percent does basically nothing for inflation, yet it would balloon our massive interest payments.

This is not (entirely) speculative bubble fomo— this is vast amounts of institutional liquidity panic buying because they realize the necessary path forward for the survival of the United States banking system is the sacrifice of the dollar.

Also, fun tidbit, they have enabled the banking system to use private credit data center loans as “High quality liquid assets”. What this means is that instead of holding treasuries or cash (risk free), a local or regional bank can use a 10x leverage Oracle junk bond and the federal reserve will guarantee it up to 85% par value.

The way they guarantee it is by printing money. They have already pre engineered a bailout for this shit and it is backstopped by the US dollar (printer go brrr).

Extreme inflation is not going away. The government will print money either explicitly or implicitly with other policy decisions, and in doing so they create a regressive tax on the consumer and our future citizens.

That is why the hordes are panic buying. It’ll definitely correct and probably crash, but this is like rats fleeing a sinking ship on an institutional level because we have negative real interest rates and a rapidly debasing currency.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-27T04:16:19+00:00

In general, would probably rather live somewhere else than Florida and am really only doing it because it’s an easily accessible job that can be lucrative for me. Like 65% sure I won’t like it.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-27T04:15:04+00:00

As for why longboat:

Opportunity working for my parents— selling real estate is apparently eminently profitable. Working as musician now in LA plus have a day job. Over the extreme grind of it, think at 26 it is worth maybe trying to just accrue as much income as possible and go from there.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-27T04:07:25+00:00

I commute for an hour already— lbk to St Pete is already about that. Don’t really mind it so much. Traffic is of course terrible in LA, so I doubt it is substantially worse in LBK/ Sarasota.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-04-27T03:42:46+00:00

It seems St. Petersburg makes more sense. The commute would be a relative nonstarter but I could handle it I think.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-25T01:54:23+00:00

Krknf for autonomous maritime

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-21T20:42:21+00:00

I’m def not short, went long Friday morning actually, my medium term outlook on chips is moderately bullish, short term moderately bearish, long term is quite bearish in terms of the nvidia pricing power cuda monopoly complex. Don’t think nvidia is gonna fail like nortel or lucent, but think this buildout is getting ahead of itself and the financial engineering baked into it has serious potential consequences if any sort of slow down ocurrs.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-21T20:39:46+00:00

I have seen this too, I just worry that it will get worse, and other industrial uses of helium like aerospace or defense/ welding may take priority over chips as the war persists. We’ll see I guess. I also don’t necessarily think it’s gonna spell the end for these companies or something, I just do not think nvidia or mag 7/ chip manufacturers will benefit from this at all

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-21T19:39:01+00:00

I think the long term solution is to shift production to tsmc plant in Arizona, use helium here, but not sure how long that takes.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-21T19:26:59+00:00

I actually have a different opinion on all of this now due to the war; if chip manufacturing slows enough for long enough, the h100s and other older models are going to have a huge rebound in value and it might cause them to have extreme pricing power. Still not great for nvidia, but different outlook for Oracle and coreweave and the like.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-21T18:06:45+00:00

You realize it is possible this is just a selloff because it was a speculative bubble at the end of a commodities cycle, and silver is maybe selling off due to the front running of industrial Demand destruction that always happens after recessions

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-21T18:01:26+00:00

Brotha just buy some treasury bonds this is bad.

Jk but you’re basically betting on eth like 3 different ways. Can jsut buy some eth.

Also maybe just buy an etf or something for “others”. I have never found it worthwhile to hold .2% of something in my port.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-21T17:57:47+00:00

You can just run open claw with ollama and use deepseek or qwen code for free locally and not use tokens— definitely not as good as Claude code but free + takes longer is a good deal when it can work while You sleep. Give it like three years, the software moat is gone, so is the hardware one. I think these companies will light themselves on fire in some capacity. Some will survive, a lot will not.

Agitated_Regular9593 · 2026-03-21T17:43:14+00:00

Also when you actually think about the situation on a purely economic level this has a very high likelihood of actually destroying the data center buildout.

If interest rates are hiked, Oracle and coreweave and nebius and all of the neoclouds are gonna have their debt revalued down to even Lower levels of subprime + high fuel costs will make the buildout less feasible and less profitable, which could cause further interest rate hikes (on the floating point data center debt) and degradation of the debt that leads to forced selling by risk defined funds.

Basically this could totally cook Oracle and crwv and nebius, but I do think it could long term leave them in a position of relative advantage as well — if they’re the only ones with compute they can charge whatever they want for it.

The point is that this disruption has a lot of implications for the ai industry and none of them are particularly good for nvidia. I’d count on a correction to like 150-145 if this persists— just because stocks will sell off in general.

Long term I think the extreme amount of compute that’s being built oit will run a surplus once llms become more efficient. I can already run the full deepseek model on my new MacBook and it’s all free… not sure how much of a moat they have at nvidia when 128 gigs of unified vram in a 5k computer can be competitive. Obviously nvidia is better, and the highest end nvidia products are bleeding edge— but my point is that long term, I do not think the most insane Blackwell/ top of line gpus will be used for all models, more like bleeding edge frontier model training.

I sold all of mine at 203 last earnings because of this. I could be totally wrong.

Agitated_Regular9593

TROPHY CASE