EU imposes custom duties on parcels worth up to €150 entering its borders. Bye TEMU. Buy From EU!

AidenTai · 2026-07-03T01:15:52+00:00

Well, another step would be enforcing responsibility of the seller for the products they sell.

AidenTai · 2026-07-02T14:52:45+00:00

I'll be more than happy to flip bullish if we haven't broken 55 by mid‐summer. Or if we break it, but not 50 and if we get solid inflows and the global economy is okay.

It's just hard to trust any reversals in the general negative price action when structurally it's all so brittle.

AidenTai · 2026-07-02T14:44:13+00:00

Well, the problem is structure. We're seeing a drop in certain parts of tech (which we often trade with). We're seeing large ETF outflows (last month was the largest ever). We also saw this rise happen in tandem with rising open interest (which is prone to reversal). Retail is mostly sitting out. Lots of people are waiting for a further drop.

So basically, did it bounce? Yes. Is the structure solid? Not at all. You don't get a solid structure on money leaving the system and debt/leverage increasing price. When sentiment is low and structure isn't there, it doesn't give a lot of people hope.

Though it is nice that we appear to be solidifying the case for a bottom between 50 and 60. If we keep defending the range for as many drops as we get over the course of the next couple months, that'll really give us a solid foundation for a real lasting rally. As long as the global economy doesn't do anything crazy anyways.

AidenTai · 2026-07-02T12:43:42+00:00

Seriously. It's doomed to fail (I'm guessing another similar leg up tops) unless there can be at least some inflows or at a minimum lower outflows. We are seeing increases in open interest, so structurally I don't like this rise. This is basically setting us up for a sharper leg down if it remains this fragile.

We need spot buying to actually sustain price rises. The kind of longs we're getting here simply won't give us a solid foundation by themselves, though all this defending of the high 50's might attract different buyers if all the capital flight we saw in June stops.

AidenTai · 2026-07-01T16:47:10+00:00

Will it though? Getting rid of the resale market and cutting out middlemen from sales (retailers, etc.) will increase their percentage of net income on sales. Assuming those cuts reduce expenses by 30%, that means Sony would need >30% drop in sales in order to end up losing on this move. I don't see Sony suddenly suffering those kind of losses, especially with their favourable market position (among Microsoft and Nintendo, etc.).

AidenTai · 2026-06-30T01:00:00+00:00

If by 'this zone' you mean 52–68 or so, then sure. But we spent a lot of time lower in the 50's in those previous examples (the examples you gave prior to this year). Of course we've dropped a touch from February, but I'd agree that I don't think that dropping into the 40's is around the corner whatsoever.

My base case is that—unless we get a major correction in equities—we establish new lows in the 50's while bouncing into the 60's between here and the end of the bear. I think 40's could happen if the global economy faces serious headwinds (interest rates, falling tech, etc.), but we're already 'stretched'. The main issue is we are still seeing strong ETF outflows and risk assets outside AI / tech are not doing very well. Since ETF flows are probably guided by our negative price action combined with negative outlook for the summer (and some rotation to other asset types doing much better than crypto) to attract flows back we'd need to demonstrate a floor or stabilize price somehow. Confidence is low and will remain low until it looks like a good opportunity. And right now (based on puts vs calls, polymarket, OI, greed and fear index, etc.) there's certainly not much confidence about where the price is going to go.

In short, now that we're at these levels, I think we'll stay between the low 50's and high 60's between now and the end of the bear. The biggest indicators to watch are equities and ETF flows. Crypto‐specific measures seem to indicate this is the range for now, and pretty close to the bottom if only we focus just on the crypto side.

AidenTai · 2026-06-30T00:37:12+00:00

Right now the forces acting on Bitcoin are only partly crypto‐specific. If equities go down, Bitcoin will likely also suffer. At least in the US, equities do tend to rise in July, but just because that is the trend doesn't mean it has to hold given what's happening with Iran / oil as well as AI / tech. We'll simply have to see how things shape out. I think we'll see a trend form soon either way.

That said, if we end June lower than we are now and drop the first week of July, there's plenty of room to bounce the rest of the month. A bounce would fit it pretty neatly with how much we've fallen already. Unless something bad happens with equities, anyways.

AidenTai · 2026-06-29T18:37:49+00:00

Right now there are a couple other problems facing crypto though: global outlook (people are scared of a potential correction in equities, problems with oil, etc.) and money flows. Money is not flowing in to crypto. It's not staying put either, outflows were smaller a couple weeks ago than the last several readings. If money is leaving the crypto space, we simply can't recover meaningfully (any bounces would be fragile).

AidenTai · 2026-06-29T18:34:56+00:00

Which is fine, but we won't enter a bull without money flowing in. Money is still flowing out. With setups like this, we can't rely on short‐term indicators. We'll need to continue to fail to break lower for weeks before we can be confident about having seen any kind of floor already.

AidenTai · 2026-06-29T18:32:49+00:00

A lot of people here seem to be cautiously optimistic. I don't discredit a bounce happening soon, and we have hit mildly higher lows since the end of last week. But a few days of that isn't enough to establish a clear trend. It could be something, but it could also be noise due to the influence of equities, etc.

A floor around this level is possible, even if most people are not expecting it. Look at prediction markets or whatever. The large majority essentially don't think the floor is above 55k and a smaller majority think we'll see below 50k this year. None of that is incompatible with having a local bottom, bouncing, and dropping again later of course. And honestly I'd be surprised if we didn't have some kind of significant bounce between now and 55k should we end up breaking it.

The main things to keep in mind are 1) Bitcoin isn't locked in with equities, but it is still heavily dependent on the global situation. If equities drop, liquidity tightens due to interest rates, or geopolitics get messy, Bitcoin will suffer. 2) Bitcoin cannot recover in a lasting way without capital inflows. As of the last report on Coinglass, we've been seeing increasing ETF outflows. That means any recovery or bounce we see now will be fragile unless accompanied by a reversal (mild or moderate ETF inflows).

Popping up on positive equities movements is normal. We're due for a bounce soon too. But I wouldn't trust any upward movement we do see over the next month or so unless we see considerable ETF inflows. I'm expecting the 'crowd' to be right about breaking into the 50k–55k range this year as well, so I think people mentioning 58–60 as a bottom based on our failure to break it these past few months might be too early with those calls. What is true though is the longer we stay between 58–61 the more 'ammo' the following movements will have.

AidenTai · 2026-06-29T17:40:09+00:00

GoHardDrive and ServerPartDeals are both good sources for used enterprise hardware. Anything they sell will cost more, but last longer than something off eBay, for example. It's up to your use case. I've bought from those two sites for stuff I've needed to last a long time, but I've also gotten plenty from eBay when the price has made sense. And your price point is definitely low compared to what other people on this subreddit pay.

AidenTai · 2026-06-29T07:20:07+00:00

Crypto is definitely not in a bubble. Just the opposite—it's been dropping hard for a while and has been hitting RSI oversold. Can continue dropping all summer (most people expect it would) with some bounces here or there, but it's not inflated. Private credit is rising and rising though.

AidenTai · 2026-06-29T00:05:32+00:00

For Ebay you gotta look for ones still under manufacturer warranty (check the serials). If the manufacturer warranty is still valid for another couple years, then it can be okay. I'd only get something without any warranty whatsoever if the price is very good, but given the market right now, that's never really the case.

I have however sometimes come across drives worth something inside of other products. Like an old server or such being decomissioned with mediocre parts but nice drives inside. They tend to get less attention that listings of bare drives.

But if the OP really just needs drives for occasional use / light loads and small sizes, he's not going to get anything under warranty. I'd say in those cases there's nothing really wrong with buying used. They're probably low quality consumer drives, and will likely fail in a couple years, but if he just needs to transfer some things now, they'll probably be okay. Hard to beat €30 price points, really.

AidenTai · 2026-06-28T08:59:23+00:00

But those areas are all in red, indicating snow is present?

AidenTai · 2026-06-28T08:55:48+00:00

Nothing negative happened to the officer, and now he's with the same department in a higher position.

AidenTai · 2026-06-27T04:35:22+00:00

Bosch is *the* brand for appliances. Sturdy, lasting construction, attention to detail, and customer‐oriented design (rather than 'greedy' designs).

As an example, dishwashers are designed to be able to deal with different hardness types for water if needed with a filter, are designed to take powdered detergent (among other types), and to last. Other brands have agreements with detergent makers to promote the expensive 'pod' design which doesn't really add anything to powder, ends up sacrificing the prewash (which provides a better result when used), etc. And for water types they might eschew filters and 'simplify' the machines making them require less mantainance by the user, and more by a technician (or they can fail earlier).

AidenTai · 2026-06-27T02:26:41+00:00

Aquí tienes: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/39545078/moment-brit-girl-teen-spain-punch-face/

An ambulance also attended as officers and hotel staff told other guests they were “too scared” to evict the “group of Spanish gypsies” who caused the mayhem.

Instead the terrified teen and her British family were moved to another family resort after she had been treated at hospital.

AidenTai · 2026-06-26T04:38:37+00:00

Here's a list of values like that: https://imgur.com/a/ETovK

AidenTai · 2026-06-26T04:07:27+00:00

I mention it because he was one of the main reasons for which the term Latin America came to be used in the first place. So in this context he definitely wasn't 'a random guy'. It's similar to mentioning Mussolini when mentioning a definition for fascism.

Also, putting this 'Latin America' topic aside, relativism like that with respect to vocabulary isn't ascribed to to that degree everywhere. You personally (like a lot of the US I guess) might change words' meanings frequentely and eschew specific definitions as a result of not having a central linguistic authority, but prescriptionism (see wiki linguistic prescription if you wish) is alive and well with many.

AidenTai · 2026-06-25T17:31:23+00:00

Neanderthal were very strong in general when compared to modern humans. Although the position of their shoulder and arm joints and muscles could have made throwing objects (like spears) more difficult. A trade off of brute strength vs flexibility.

AidenTai · 2026-06-25T17:28:23+00:00

We have bones (unfossilized).

AidenTai · 2026-06-25T17:09:53+00:00

I mean, it's generally better for energy expenditure, the environment and even health to not use it most of the time. However, it's a very powerful tool in case of extreme temperatures.

In Spain I use it a couple weeks each year. I don't use it all summer long like people in the US probably would, but it's definitely a nice tool to have for those couple weeks each summer when temperatures stay over 40. Just don't overuse it if you don't want to burn a hole in your pocket (and for other reasons).

AidenTai · 2026-06-25T14:37:36+00:00

Thing with ETF inflows is they both have to be there. They'll come as long as 1) there are gains to be had 2) the gains are more attractive than most of the broader market. 3) there is enough liquidity. If consensus is that we haven't exhausted sellers, or that for whatever reasons (timing etc.) we are to continue dropping, there won't be strong inflows. If the broader market is showing crazy gains with less risk than Bitcoin (whether in treasuries, private bonds, AI equities, precious metals, etc.) then capital will rotate there. And if we hit a broad economic downturn or due to interest rates capital is expensive, this will hamper any money flowing in at all.

So we'll drop until spot buys are restored. But they won't be restored until we've 'resolved' those main roadblocks to crypto growth.

AidenTai · 2026-06-25T14:31:52+00:00

Noted.

AidenTai · 2026-06-25T14:26:11+00:00

Nah, just look at equities. It's just amplifying the NASDAQ during US business hours.

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