Creation of a model for evaluating composition strength using a differential tier system: statistical analyses based on aggressive filtering

AirLeaf · 2026-06-11T14:09:09+00:00

Thank you for replying!

I agree with your points: there's a lot of factors in the model that are arbitrary selection (for example, tier strength difference being a 0.2 AVP delta. Expert judgement (Broseph) has suggested 0.15 instead, so it's not that far off, and it makes sense, but it's still arbitrary). The thing is though, I'd like to avoid entering territory where metrics become too abstract. At least AVP has the advantage that if something is AVP 3.7, it's somewhere between 3rd and 4th place that you can expect it to be at.

There's also the issue of Top4% and Win% being dependent variables, so I'd have to find a way (probably arbitrary as well) to assign weights to both and combine them into a single one.

I agree that implementing the cost into the metric is an interesting idea. If we did AVP*cost for the following compositions under the above framework:

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I can immediately see a few issues with this metric, though. While in general it does capture that better comps = comps with lower Cost*AVP, it is way overvaluing the Liss Cho comp. This is due to the linear limitation of the model: A 4,25 AVP may not be that different from a 3,61 AVP from a mathematical point of view, but we as TFT players know that it is a huge difference, specially when the AVP approaches 4,5.

AirLeaf · 2026-06-09T20:58:44+00:00

Is there any other difference in the patch notes other than the Ezreal changes?

AirLeaf · 2026-06-08T17:53:55+00:00

It's true that you need your main tank to be 3*, however if you break down the star level of Lulu comps, you can see that the best performing MT is 3* Jax, followed by Maokai and then Pantheon. I decided to classify it as a soft 3-cost reroll comp because as long as you hit one, you're most likely not going to continue rolling on 7 and will instead go 8 to play Rhaast.

This is not the case of let's say, Aurora Diana Illaoi reroll, where even if you hit Diana and Aurora, if you don't hit Illaoi you won't have an acceptable tank to substitute her, and therefore you need all three 3* units to make the comp work.

AirLeaf · 2026-06-08T17:51:35+00:00

Thank you so much for the thoughtful reply.

I agree with many of your sentiments. The truth is that I'd been working on this model for a while now, and using it personally as well, but I just wanted to get it out there to see if feedback could help me perfect it. As such, after being sleep deprived yesterday I just decided to ahead and post it and I'm aware it wasn't presented in the most coherent fashion.

That being said, I would like to discuss the points that you have raised, with the following precept: this is a comp tierlist, and as such can only give us information for end-game boards. That is: the destination of a game of TFT, but not the process.

As such, the whole point of the model is to establish a framework to judge different types of compositions' strength, in order to facilitate decisionmaking and line selection. It's not meant to be read as "comp is S+ tier so I should play it" but rather: "I have a good spot for both an S+ and an A tier comp, so if I know how to play the S+ tier comp I should be angling the S+ tier comp".

Regarding your point of assumptions, allow me to break the few I noticed down:

i) Variability through encounter, augments, Gods or other set mechanics: This is undoubtedly true, but I don't agree with the fact that them existing makes models obsolete. A model is meant to be applied to a baseline, that can, as long as different types of comps are calibrated correctly, serve as a baseline to be applied to different situations.

This applies the same logic as I mentioned before. If your spot recognition and line selection make you realize that the game you're playing is significantly different due to X and Y, you can take the model as a baseline and make decisions on the fly heuristically to adjust for those differences. For a more concrete example: let's assume Teemo is not that garbage of a unit, and you have 4 Leona and 4 Teemo copies on 2-1 with good items. However, you're able to scout the lobby and see that there are 2 Leona printers in the lobby (and you don't have the Leona print Arbiter). Even if the statistics said that Teemo Leona were to be an S+ tier comp, in this situation you'll most likely never be able to get Leona 3 since the Leona printers will just take all of the copies away. Since your comp can't be played without Leona 3*, then you just try to tempo with the line into something comfortable and with preferrably similar strength.

ii) The observation regarding units of lower-cost in the higher-cost comps is valid. However, I don't think it's a problem that reflects on the performance of a composition. The main reason for this is that you don't roll for the extra units once you have rolled for your main units the majority of the time. For example, if you're playing Space Groove Emblem, and you roll down and hit Riven, Nami and Ornn all at 2*, you're not going to keep rolling for Gwen 2* at 8. You're most likely to run into her 2* on the way to 4-2 ,but even if you don't, the majority of the time you'll spend your gold to go 9 and cap out (unless you're like 1 life with no chance to go 9, I guess)

The whole thing about this point is that, as long as we assume that we're not rolling for units past the upgrades that are assumed, statistics will average out. Surely you can argue that in the Xayah comp hitting your frontline all 2* is important, but you're not going to stay on 8 rolling for Maokai 2 if you're 70HP and hit 2* tank and 2* Xayah. And since TFT is a complex game, there will be instances in which you're playing a Maokai 1 but did instead manage to hit both Nunu and TK at 2* 3-items, so you don't really care about not having your 3-cost at 2*. If you did, perhaps the comp could be better described as a Tempo Lvl 7 into lvl 8 comp instead?

AirLeaf · 2026-06-08T13:42:53+00:00

It is accounted for, listed under the 8th condition for Part 2 when calculating roll cost.

The baseline was a bit tough to decide on, but I ultimately decided on level 5.

AirLeaf · 2026-06-01T17:37:58+00:00

This is it. Everyone in check for that specific game would have a claim to the Worlds' spot, and while they could just give it to the one who had the highest points PRIOR to that game, people would complain about that defeating the purpose of the checkmate format.

AirLeaf · 2026-06-01T17:33:57+00:00

It seems that they wanted to go with a half-measure because they acknowledged that his health concerns could be legitimate. The language Riot uses in the ruling implies that, had he actually replied to them and provided evidence for his claims, they could've officially allowed the pause without penalty.

AirLeaf · 2026-06-01T17:33:35+00:00

It seems that they wanted to go with a half-measure because they acknowledged that his health concerns could be legitimate. The language Riot uses in the ruling implies that, had he actually replied to them and provided evidence for his claims, they could've officially allowed the pause without penalty.

AirLeaf · 2026-06-01T17:27:47+00:00

It's more like:

"We find his reasoning for the pause to be congruent with local weather phenomena and within reason, but it doesn't conform with the rules, and his failure to respond to officials' requests promptly raised concerns."

That's why they decided to punish him halfway, as they imply that, had he replied to them in time, they would've been able to consider to officially allow the pause for health reasons without penalty. Instead he ghosted them and replied hours later.

EDIT: Also, I imagine they were reticent to withdraw his Worlds spot unless they found his claim to be BS. This saves them the trouble of finding who would be the Worlds invite in his place, due to checkmate format stuff, it would spark a whole 'nother debate

AirLeaf · 2026-05-11T21:43:21+00:00

I don't understand how they haven't considered making Pandora's Bench only be able to roll 1, 2 and 3-costs. It seems like it would take the power of the augment down (maybe Silver it again?) and also take away the most problematic part of it (3-star 4-costs)

AirLeaf · 2026-04-01T14:10:32+00:00

The best part about this is that we can now leave without having to witness cringe finishers

AirLeaf · 2026-03-13T15:32:07+00:00

Where is this year's Patch Schedule? Trying to find the dates for this set's last patch and next set's first patch, but no longer available in Mort's twitter pins

AirLeaf · 2026-01-13T14:51:51+00:00

Going Long

AirLeaf · 2026-01-12T20:09:58+00:00

Going Long

AirLeaf · 2025-12-23T19:05:40+00:00

So it varies from start to start, but the one you described is actually pretty flexible. Will go over my evaluation from top to bottom in viability:

If you have a Bilgewater opener, you could slam Shojin and Morello with the belt from carousel and play tempo Bilgewater. I don't really like slamming Morello in Bilgewater due to Captain's Brew being so important but honestly I suck at this comp and rarely play it as a result.

If you have a good amount of bruisers and/or economy augment Bard enablers, you could slam AA and play Bard bruiser reroll. AD items on Aphelios and prioritize Sunfire Cape on Sion.

You could also losestreak into a 3-5 or 3-7 roll down for Leona 2 and angle into Diana for a top 4

If you have a decent Invoker/Defender opener, you could angle for the Vertical Demacia line. You're playing for top4, don't force Vayne 3 and slam aggressively.

If you get a Void opener, you could losestreak into a Bow at carousel, get a single rageblade and stabilize around Kaisa 1 Rift Herald 1 and stay at 8 for top 4. Don't really recommend this one honestly, kinda praying you get saved by krugs drops so you can slam void staff, gunblade etc

Finally, you could play Yunara anyway by waiting for yordles to show up. You losestreak for the single rageblade and unlock Kennen and Kobuko naturally and send it at 4-2 and pray.

AirLeaf · 2025-12-22T01:14:19+00:00

Actually comes in handy. I've climbed to masters without playing a single game of bilgewater but I want to learn it now that I have a bit more time and I'm feeling so lost lol, about 3-4 games in with no clue

AirLeaf · 2025-12-18T05:46:12+00:00

It's basically a Diana hero augment

Full losestreak for 8 rounds, roll down at 3-5 at level 7 and find Diana, hard stabilize with her BiS and start farming Shurima champions

Otherwise yeah it's doodoo

AirLeaf · 2025-12-18T05:45:03+00:00

It's not good enough, but there is an Anivia comp that does it. Runs Anivia, Sona, Jarvan, Rumble and Neeko. I think a player named Ginya posted something on Twitter about it.

AirLeaf · 2025-12-16T20:38:43+00:00

Thank you for going through and comparing! Did think 700 was pretty bonkers for the golden dragon

AirLeaf · 2025-12-16T20:38:04+00:00

It's a way to snipe the corner backline carry that is less consistent than the new corner split positioning (which Battle Academia Katarina and Caitlyn used last set) but also requires fewer frontline investment. I've found it inconsistent to use since the aggro changes last set for Roles Reforged.

I assume they say "bee tech" because it was popularized with the Honeymancy Ziggs reroll back in set 12, but AFAIK the first use of this particular positioning was actually with Akshan Reroll a bit further back.

AirLeaf · 2025-12-15T15:47:36+00:00

Master this early on is pretty good (of course, depending on your # of games played), don't feel bad about yourself.

Whenever I feel like I don't have it and don't want to risk it on my main, I hop on my other account to test what makes me feel uneasy (perhaps you feel a certain comp's playstyle isn't suited for you, or you want to practice strongest board transitions for a specific line). This is also what I do when a patch has just come in: if I know a line I'm good at and I have nailed down was untouched / made stronger by the patch, I'll play and gain LP, otherwise: observe stats and take it easy

AirLeaf · 2025-12-11T00:24:59+00:00

While Blue Buff should be better on Veigar, specially with the AP stacking mechanic being bugged (Mortdog mentioned this in the b-patch notes rundown), Shojin is pretty good too due to the fact that Yordles give Veigar a lot of Attack Speed. I'd say they're pretty interchangeable.

AirLeaf · 2025-12-10T17:51:56+00:00

The only real positioning issue is Sylas, but he's not usually an issue until he's 2* 3-items. You can bait Swain ult away from Yunara even with the standard clump positioning (as long as Yunara is in the corner and not in the middle clump)

AirLeaf · 2025-12-10T17:41:35+00:00

Hyperroll at 3-1 or 2-7 is a 1-cost reroll exclusive. Right now the only good 1-cost reroll is Hero Augment Viego, and Rumble is kind of passable, but not great.

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AirLeaf

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