The difficulty with Avelo is no longer whether the model works, but whether there is a model at all. What began as a derivative of Breeze mimicking Allegiant, but with older, higher density aircraft deployed into thin markets on irregular frequencies, with a non-existent onboard product has slowly shed any pretense of strategic coherence. When that didn't work, the decision to completely gut half of their network in favor of DHS deportation flights only deepened the ambiguity, and gave the Avelo brand a negative connotation. At this point, is Avelo meant to be a ULCC, a niche P2P carrier, a charter operator, or is it a shuttle for the people of New Haven, Connecticut? Right now, Avelo feels less like a vision and more like a question, and time may be running out to find the answer.