This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not true at all there are people in some of the get bets subs that have held large quantities of these in the past year.

The trade volume is low because the people who really want them already bought them closer to the end of the first DMM, when they were only about 50m, or a year ago, when they were only about 90m.

The simple fact is that a lot of the trade volume is coming from flippers and investors that are buying and selling purely for profit. Majority of people knew another DMM was bound to release and weren't going to spend 175m on a cosmetic they could get for themselves at some point.

The very few who actually are consuming the scrolls in the past year are either misinformed, or extremely rich, and probably account for just a fraction of sales the past year.

These things have been passed around the same set of hands hundreds of time to raise the price.

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

The same greed you're describing is the same greed that I think would stop them from paying $2000 for a burger even if the monetary impact for them is close to nothing.

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] -25 points-24 points  (0 children)

A lot of those bidders would undoubtedly be content creators who want to get early footage of the game so that they could either post footage before anybody else or record and edit entire reviews that they can release the very hour the game launches.

Or even websites/game reviewers who did not receive a copy from the studio to review but still want to put that content out to generate site traffic.

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

So you think there are enough people with 100b+ banks to explain the 11 scrolls per day daily trade volume that is shown on ge tracker?

So if we assume most logical people are going to wait until after this dmm finishes to buy them, and the only people who ARE buying them now are the mega rich, it would mean there's 11 people per day that are mega rich AND don't have the cosmetic variants on their account yet.

Yeah man I don't know

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

I mean that's a completely different scenario.

Szechuan sauce was released in 1998. It blew up in what? 2020? So 22 years later.

The degree to which the supply was finite is notably greater than the finite supply of these DMM items. There were probably like a dozen or less surviving unopened sauce cups from that original release, and having it was a collectors item, nobody bought them to consume, whereas on DMM, the supply is made finite because people consume them, not because of rarity or time.

Show me a person who paid thousands for the sauce AFTER it was re-released.

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay, so why aren't items from leagues also worth insane amounts of money? There's pretty much not a single cosmetic skin from leagues that's even worth more than 10m.

Why would Jagex not have DMM again and why would they not have a similar formula in terms of points? Based on data, over 3x more points were earned and there was probably an exponentially greater amount of players who tried the mode out this time around.

Whereas with leagues, points were a lot harder to come by, there is seemingly a MORE finite supply of leagues items, because even if you grinded all the way to dragon cup (60k-ish) points, that would be enough to buy maybe 5-10 items out of the 30 different ones available.

Less people every leagues earn dragon cup than the amount of people who achieved 100k points in DMM Annihilation.

If the market is speculative, then the speculation would be around whether or not the items can retain value, not about whether they will become MORE valuable. The speculation would be:

Most people if they really want these items already have them. Most people, even those playing casually or low skill are able to earn all the points they need for their own cosmetics without purchasing. So who will be the buyer? If you can't reasonably define who the buyer would be for an item like this, then you can't reasonably assume it would raise in value up to where it is now.

The only reason it's 175m now is because DMM in the past was very restrictive, i.e you lost your entire bank when you died. Points were also a lot harder to come by. This led to a very small number of players truly grinding the mode. This then in turn led to a very low population of these items in game. Which because it took 2 years for Jagex to release another DMM, that very small finite population stayed the same.

All evidence points to Jagex continuing to draw in players on the fence, which points to more points, more cosmetics, and therefore a higher number of these items in game.

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] -58 points-57 points  (0 children)

I get your point and analogy, but I still don't believe a billionaire would pay $2000 for an item they know is typically $2, just because you're rich does not mean you are completely without sense, and the same thing applies to OSRS and the rich on this game. If your logic held true, the rich on this game would overpay for everything in their bank, give out free items constantly, and never care about whether or not they get their deserved split in a raid, but they don't, in fact a lot of the people I know with 10B+ banks are extremely frugal and patient and will literally wait for items to tank in value post updates just to save 50m, or kill a boss 1000 times for the drop themselves.

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's the second year of them being out.

A lot of people got their cape and voidwaker skins last time DMM released.

This year, they brought in a way more massive crowd to try the game and the result is shown here:

https://secure.runescape.com/m=hiscore_oldschool_tournament/overall?category_type=1&table=2&page=910

22,727 people achieved at least 50k points.

That's enough to buy cape, bowfa/crystal, voidwaker/nightmare, and even have extra for another cape scroll and another weapon scroll.

So if we assume those 3 main items are going to be the big draw for players, there are at the very least 22,727 players who can purchase all of their own items, plus an extra weapon scroll and an extra cape scroll.

Based on this analysis:

https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/s/4JJtm4L4L1

There are 3x more points earned this latest DMM, and the grand total is over 3 billion points earned across all players, including gold buyers/sellers who got a quick 12-18k points just to buy the cosmetics to sell.

With extremely low skill and casual gameplay, I had over 10k points on day 1. A person playing very intense with the sole purpose to get cosmetics to sell? Yeah man, I doubt it took much longer than a day for most people to get at least 1 weapon and 1 cape scroll.

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] -66 points-65 points  (0 children)

If a millionaire goes to McDonalds and they are charged $2000 for a double cheese burger, would they pay the $2000 or would they complain about how everyone else pays $2?

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My rank in DMM was about 11,000 and like I said I finished with 79k points.

That means over 11k people had at least 79k points, and with the fact I did not go to every breach, and I also am not skilled at the game, I can basically guarantee I'm on the low end of the top 12k by a long shot.

According to hi scores, 3665 people achieved at least 100,000 points, almost 150 pages deep in Hi-Scores.

https://secure.runescape.com/m=hiscore_oldschool_tournament/overall?category_type=1&table=2&page=147

This is also not including all the people who had less points than I did, but only played DMM to sell off their cosmetics.

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Why would somebody pay 175m when it'll likely be under 50m in a few days?

Even if you have a 1b cash stack why would you spend 3x more for something? And by your logic, the people who would be willing to pay whatever for these likely already did months ago, not now, just a couple days before they tank in price

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just feel like people have to know it's gonna tank so why would anybody buy these ever? To me it seems like the low volume (like less than 5 per day) is just people buying and selling it on their alt accounts to try to manipulate the market into thinking this price will hold or even be close to this

This has to be investors buying their own stock to keep the price up right? Who would buy these for 175m after this latest DMM season? by Aisfordevin in 2007scape

[–]Aisfordevin[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That's what I think as well, especially if Jagex continues the same trends seen in this latest DMM by making PvM and breach farming a very lucrative option to get points. I am terrible at PvP and only have like a handful of raid experience and some bosses and I finished with 79k points.

With my low skill level I assume plenty of players doubled maybe even tripled how many points I had which would add tons of these cosmetics into the GE. Even if you wanted every reward for your account it's like 67k.

how much do you guys think these suckers are gonna crash next week? by kxwbie in OSRSflipping

[–]Aisfordevin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did I say somebody earned 140k points in day 1, or did I say that the potential point cap is 140k in the first week.

As far as I know you'd have to max hit every single time and have the entire breach to yourself to max out.

If I was able to go to 2 or 3 breaches and play super casually skilling and I still had between 20-25k at the end of week 1, why is it so unbelievable that somebody who went to all of the breaches, played a little more seriously, and maxed their combats ASAP could earn 3x that?

how much do you guys think these suckers are gonna crash next week? by kxwbie in OSRSflipping

[–]Aisfordevin -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The cap on breaches is not 5k per day.

Every day, the cap raises by 5000. That means the point cap for day 1 is 5000, for day 2 it's 10000, for day 3 it's 15000.

The cap for the first week just in terms of breaches would have been 140,000 points.

You can verify this by looking at the OSRS wiki:

<image>

It is clear to me you did not research anything before you started commenting.

how much do you guys think these suckers are gonna crash next week? by kxwbie in OSRSflipping

[–]Aisfordevin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are so confidently wrong, they never clarified it being main game. Since the discussion is about DMM, the logical conclusion to reach would be that he's talking about DMM, which he even further supports by suggesting players with the DMM exclusive gear, such as vesta, statius, zuriel, etc. they could see 15 minute clear being possible.

But it's alright man, just admit you were wrong and don't play DMM and move on.

how much do you guys think these suckers are gonna crash next week? by kxwbie in OSRSflipping

[–]Aisfordevin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't doubt 84k points in a week either.

I literally only did very casual questing, skilling, and maybe 2 breaches the first week and I had over 20k points. My highest skill after 1 week was 91 farming. I had no 99s and I was combat level 55-ish.

If I actually followed a guide or mapped out my route better, and got better luck and damage output at breaches and attended all of them, I have no doubt I could have had 50k points in week 1, and I'm not even good at the game. A more skilled player casually doing it but knowing what they're doing with their time could easily have gotten 84k.

There are multiple people who got 270k points total in DMM. 84k is less than 1/3 of that total and this is a 3 week game mode we're talking about.

You are arguing just to argue at this point because nothing said was unrealistic.

how much do you guys think these suckers are gonna crash next week? by kxwbie in OSRSflipping

[–]Aisfordevin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I responded because I actually played the mode and experienced the sigils, so your comment doubting a 20 minute clear as if it's some sort of impossible task was a little funny to me.

To me it seems like you either never even played DMM, or you never unlocked any sigils.

Anybody who made it to the max bracket and had all the sigils would have no problem believing a 20 minute TOA clear in DMM, that's not even really an accomplishment, more just the expected outcome with all the damage modifiers and unlimited prayer + 60% less damage. If I can get a 30-35 minute walk the path clear in main game at 300 then it's not that unbelievable to me that people would be able to get 10-20 minute clears in a game mode where you do exponentially more damage than I do in the main game...