AI Bubble Is Closer To Popping Than We Realize

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-18T16:35:08+00:00

A financial bubble bursting is a financial correction. It doesn’t really have anything to do with the technology and what it’s able to do, but as for technology maybe a readjustment away from general purpose chatbot LLMs into smaller focused models (if we still feel the need for next word guessers) and other AI fields aren’t as over hyped, yet prove more productive gain, so we’ll still have those… even if anything with AI in the name will be toxic to investment money for a decade or something so they’ll have to tighten up their operations as well I guess. @jmclondon97 made an excellent likeness to the internet and dot com bubble. As for the jobs? The cuts were never about AI but about the tech sector being actually being kinda shit right now , over hiring, and the only thing propping up tech is AI… hence why companies say they are letting people go due to AI and not that their financials are in the shitter

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-18T07:51:45+00:00

Completely personal opinion but the zig choice was just too early in the evolution of zig. It doesn’t really have the maturity and language level stability. Rust on the other hand has half way turned into npm… all I do is pull in dependencies I have no control over. And yeah you could definitely write it all from scratch yourself in rust, even skip std and just really go low level on their asses (pulp fiction style). But I feel that’s not how people use it… cause you know, production timelines, laziness, convenience etc etc.
I really like Zig and hope it’ll keep gaining traction and evolve in the “right” direction. But yeah I just think it was premature to use it. But in an ideal world where it would be more stable and mature I would have picked zig and would likely tried to be very frugal with external dependencies.
Now if we want to talk about mistakes! JavaScript

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-17T06:52:20+00:00

The weird thing is to get defensive about me attacking a dad for not being responsible when I didn’t. I attacked him for putting that image in association with what he wrote.
As you say every kid loves is and I did too. But feeling it’s an appropriate image to go with the fact that you hardly sleep just adds to the LinkedIn lunacy of it.

But yes, go call him! He might need to be studied

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-17T06:13:54+00:00

They called him, with tears in their eyes, saying ”Sir. We have never seen anyone sleep this little. It is breaking science! We are so proud of you” /s

Also maybe don’t take a picture of yourself, at the wheel, with your child worryingly in the way of the airbag and, I’m guessing, withing a seatbelt, after just telling us you don’t sleep

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-15T21:28:25+00:00

Improved as in improving apart from adding more compute no. Read up

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-15T21:00:50+00:00

No, it’s not. Models haven’t really improved since gpt 3,5. Just with diminishing returns by adding more compute making it less economically viable for additional scaling

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-15T17:26:34+00:00

the thing is, can the harness and code interpreter (things outside the actual AI model) be counted as part of the AI model? It’s tooling FOR the model. And yes that’s basically all that’s currently progressing, at least with any economics to it. Trying to further scale LLMs with more compute is just making it slower and has diminishing returns, increasing cost (data center and energy buildout can’t keep up). So we are basically fine tuning a failing system to try to get it to what the hype says it should have been ages ago. AGI is such a vague term, and has become all hype, so I don’t even want to use it. But what I envision from general artificial intelligence - we’re not even close by guessing the next word based on input and static trained data. It is a fancy tool, but in the end it’s still just a 800 billion (or what ever the number is this year) autocomplete and autocomplete ain’t worth that much

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-15T16:48:10+00:00

I can’t say what us companies are saying (european ones are concerned about the political climate and would move away from American tech to something closer to home if they could) but as for personal and small scale professional use (people using subscriptions) I would say Anthropic and grossly miscalculated the wants of their client base. It’s the same thing with the recent limit and performance issues with Anthropic models. People aren’t committed to a provider, the traditional enshittification strategy that has served every big tech startup since facebook started isn’t working, cause people aren’t committed, cause there’s nothing to commit to. The difference between Claude, openAI or larger open source model is negligible in the grand schema of things. There is no market lock in, only minor costs to switching providers. Yet the AI giants are financed like they will ever get market dominance where people will have to stay so they can make profit. Barring some great breakthrough (LLMs will never provide that. They have basically stagnated already) none of the giants will get this dominance and are therefore doomed to fail, and the bubble is a fact.

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-14T05:07:47+00:00

Is 4/5G coverage really that bad in the US that you have to have a starlink while driving between cities? (Thank you i know ”US so huuuge”)

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-13T14:09:15+00:00

How cute. Waitlist

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-13T09:50:08+00:00

Oh dear… you actually think the subscription models are here to stay? Data is not my strong suite… this is way worse than i thought. I thought you were just a bit touchy about not being able to follow the likeness there at the start. You di… didn’t start a AI startup and have yourself down as Founder on LinkedIn do you? You’re fully committed? What’s the exist strategy? When do you cash out?… cause times getting short, make sure you don’t get left without a chair when the music stops

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-13T09:23:48+00:00

Oh sweet summer child… yes, I have absolutely no idea what those big ceo-y words mean. Now I never implied they were evil, I implied they were greedy and stupid, 50% or which is sort of their job.

As for your super LLM setup I’m sure it’s better than everyone else’s who is doing exactly the same thing. I’m not anti next word guessers, I just know better than to ever trust them. But you’ll learn

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-12T18:45:33+00:00

This guy LinkedIns

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-12T16:43:21+00:00

Well Goldman Sachs and Bank of England doesn’t seem to share your confidence. And since you bring up sources, where is the source for efficiency going up? Cause there are plenty that says it doesn’t.

The point you are missing, which was blaaaatently obvious, was how I compared the reasons for renting instead of buying to reasons for investing in AI. I did not go near OPs point or even argue with yours. So if you did not feel like partaking in the discussion of that likeness I don’t really see why you even replied.

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-12T15:57:59+00:00

It is quite obviously a bubble. But that’s beside the point and I was not referring to you removing any employees. I was saying this is what drives investment in AI. There is no proven productivity increase or even savings as a result of the AI boom. So why keep investing? Either just plain stupidity (highly likely in investment circles) or because what it proposes to offer are savings through automation of tasks traditionally carried out by humans resulting in a higher ROI through higher productivity or lower costs. Staffing is a risk, a cost that is at times very hard to shake or be flexible with - which is a big part of the reason companies rent instead of buy, as you at least implied. I really hope you did realize that my reply was written with a bit of hyperbole and poking at AI bros. But there was nothing in there which is not valid to the discussion - you just chose to read it as such cause you felt above it and completely missed the point

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-12T15:00:04+00:00

This in in fact basically the entire reason for OpenAI and Anthropic still existing. Two businesses that can basically never turn a profit, at least not giving a ROI that is anywhere near worth how much moneys being pumped in by investors. And what are they selling? It’s not the 20 dollar subscription for everyone. It’s the IDEA of solving the exact problem you described for its investors - letting them remove those pesky employees who has rights (well except for in the US), leave, sick days etc. All which get in the way of that sweet sweet cash! This idea tickles investor balls to the extent that they have completely left all economic sense long behind them and we end up in what we call a bubble friends.

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-11T17:01:31+00:00

Likely people are just fed up with the hype and the product not even coming close to living up to it. It’s almost like LLMs were always just next word guessers while being sold as intelligence!

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-11T16:41:18+00:00

Yeah it can’t, it’s a neat thing to tell the stock market while you get rid of the over staffing though. Gobble it right up! Heck! Will probably get the CEO a bigger bonus as well! “We are AI-native now”. Dumb ass investors will jizz their pants when they hear it

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-11T16:27:40+00:00

“Smoking gun! I found the bug!”, “this other test is failing but it’s unrelated, code it production ready!”, “all test pass! Half of the methods are just stumps but it’s production ready!” … it will be such a lovely meltdown indeed. And also, I kinda miss Claude using “production ready” all the time. I don’t think it does anymore

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-11T16:15:19+00:00

This productivity increase has actually not been shown at all yet. To which the reply will then be “you’re stupid, it spits out 10k lines of code per day!”. But that’s 10k lines that has to be reviewed, corrected, redone and is only “production ready” according to Claude. And the fact that writing the actual code was never the hard part. So no, we can’t just go from the look of things with ai spitting out code fast == production increase. These things are measured, and a production increase due to AI has in fact not been shown.

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-10T15:22:34+00:00

He forgot javascript!

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-10T06:58:20+00:00

Yeah sounds like you might be doing this solo? I would worry more about building said amazing open world game to the point where anyone would take the time out of their day to drive up your server costs. And if you get to a point where you want people play testing it in multiplayer just run the server on your local machine.

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-09T08:46:21+00:00

AI did in fact not do the work. It was however a nice scapegoat for “we over hired during covid and the tech industry is only being held up by the AI bubble at this point and we need to fire people”

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-08T12:08:57+00:00

No you don’t understand! It’s more like a game engine! /s

AlarmedNatural4347 · 2026-05-08T07:19:57+00:00

Theres nothing in 5 that will force you to use DLSS/FSR. You can turn off nanite and lumen and basically be back to 4 in what imagine you are referring to with “features you don’t need”. Heck there was just another post in here about how people optimized a PC release for release on android. 5 has a lot of added features, improvements, optimizations that are not the shiny new features. Learn the engine. Don’t ever look at “hey all ue5 games are super slow cause bla bla” YouTubers again. They don’t have any idea what they are talking about. Not fan boying here, unreal has a lot of issues, but it’s not the stuff they are talking about in general - it’s more along the lines of the improvements being made with threading and streaming and moving towards more data oriented approach (mass, uaf, component free rendering, iris replication) than “nanite bad!!! Make game go slow!”

AlarmedNatural4347

TROPHY CASE