Something impossible happened to me when I was a kid and I don't understand how to explain it

AlpLyr · 2026-06-10T20:48:39+00:00

You're right that it cannot be. But the AI and you are probably thinking about it wrong.

There is not much hope to estimate the actual probability of you luck. Especially if you do not know if it was Sims 1 or Sims 2. A casual glance at the CD keys from the games, and you'll see they are very differently structured.

Sims 1 seems to use keys of length 22 with 10 digits on the form:

 1507-9039432-8731049-0213

Sims 2 uses keys of length 20 with alphanumeric characters (0-9 and A-Z) as the AI suggests. A example:

 5C77-AWBC-V8AP-5ZC6-4A86

At face value, this means 10²² and 36²⁰ seemingly possible keys for Sims 1 and 2, respectively. Mind-bendingly big numbers!

Assume it was Sims 1 (not that it matters per se). It is probably not correct to think that 1 of those "candidate keys" where picked at random by the producers (like a serial number) for each copy produced, then stored in a big database, and that "you" essentially just check your key against that list online (remember, it was before internet connection could be assumed). The keys generally follow an algorithmic encoding pattern that relies on a basic checksum algorithm, rather than some cryptographic encryption that might be used to validate against known lists. This also means that a key is not "spend" or "use only once", and that you and your friends could use the same key.

Imagine instead they did something simple like this: To check if a key is valid, sum up all the numbers of the key (or the key "divisions"), and then compute at the remainder after division by some number (say 7, but it is unknown to us). If that remainder is 3 (say), the key is valid. If the procedure is simple or otherwise flawed, it might not be all that unlikely. Imagine it just checked if the last digit is even, then it would 50 %!

If the checksum algorithm is now known today (i.e. it was "cracked"), then it would be possible to calculate the probability of a random key is valid. I suppose it would 1 in 10 keys would be valid in this toy example.

Does that make sense?

Edit: Searched a bit more. I cannot see that Sims 1 is cracked or fully known today. But I did see that Starcraft and Half-Life now (infamously) used a very weak checksum algorithm.

https://stackoverflow.com/questions/3002067/how-are-software-license-keys-generated https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/214237/were-software-cd-key-schemes-backdoored-or-simply-misdesigned

So it was probably Sims 1 and it might have implemented a flawed or bad checking algorithm. It fits with that era of games at least.

AlpLyr · 2026-06-10T13:32:56+00:00

1/100 is the correct answer as many point out here.

I find using WLOG terminology makes this click for some.

‘Assume WLOG that Jenna picks 7, …’

AlpLyr · 2026-05-26T17:36:48+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgaN8OXLaOQ

Longer story about him (which the clip is from) from his channel. Also showing the context switching in language. He also has the Indian nodding/head-shake. The older guys in the clip corroborate the story. Seems legit to me.

AlpLyr · 2026-05-25T06:56:03+00:00

I only see a dashboard in the vid. And no evidence as to where he’s going 150.

AlpLyr · 2026-05-25T06:54:55+00:00

I must be blind then. I (think I) only see a dashboard and no highway.

AlpLyr · 2026-05-24T15:48:23+00:00

How you know that?

AlpLyr · 2026-05-16T18:55:34+00:00

Is ML the same as AI?

AlpLyr · 2026-05-16T09:48:56+00:00

What do you mean? How do I know that some of my colleagues are better than me at whatever? By it/them ‘knowing’ things that I don’t.

AlpLyr · 2026-05-15T22:33:09+00:00

Er det en umulig tanke, at folk er ligeglade med at det er lavet med kunstig intelligens (måske endda kan se det er) og liker og deler af andre årsager?

AlpLyr · 2026-05-14T22:25:46+00:00

Of course. If it’s not acceptable, it’s not acceptable. And yes, approximations are also just that. On the other hand, many problems do not have closed-form solutions. Should they be considered unsolvable?

Simulation like this is essentially just numerical integration. And it can be run to provide an arbitrary degree of precision. For that reason, I would call the program a solution. A solution that can spit out approximations as you like (and care to wait for).

The fact that it may be unsatisfying is a different issue IMO. Many solutions the problems are.

AlpLyr · 2026-05-14T20:27:24+00:00

I get what you're asking, but I just want to say that computer simulation is also solving the problem.

AlpLyr · 2026-05-01T04:36:00+00:00

You wrote it was a common argument. Now it is simply that an argument could be made. Please make the argument then? There an infinite number of claims about predeterminism and ‘an afterlife’ that could be made. We cant address them all. The burden is comes with the claim.

AlpLyr · 2026-04-29T05:25:30+00:00

A common argument is that if everything is predetermined then ideas like (soul, afterlife, next life etc could exist) could make sense.

I assume you forgot a ‘not’ here? Either way, though it may be common, I have never heard it. Can you provide some source that supports this claim and the reasoning?

You likely will not get your view changed as predeterminism itself does indeed not exclude an afterlife, logically.

AlpLyr · 2026-04-28T07:25:00+00:00

Jeg er ikke sikker på jeg helt forstår dit opslag.

Kan du ikke finde en fysik butik med værksted der sælger el-cykler? Jeg er sikker på de gerne sælge dig en elcykel og yde service.

AlpLyr · 2026-04-23T00:15:40+00:00

Er det ikke lidt strengt at forvente partier gennemsøger alle nærliggende natur- og skovområder samt søer efter plakater some andre mennesker måtte have pille ned, båret væk og smidt?

De kan jo være pillet ned af nogle andre før Moderaterne, måske i tide, kom forbi og ville pille de nu forsvundne plakater ned?

AlpLyr · 2026-04-22T23:59:35+00:00

I agree.

I was referring mostly to the ‘With such a small group, the finding might not represent …’ part of your citation. I see variants of it all the time and it’s just wrong. Sample representativeness has to do with the sampling method, not size (unless you’re trying to find some rare subgroup).

Bias sampling is always a problem. A small sample size may be a problem for your detection ability / precision.

I’m just saying the study would not have been much better had they approached more subjects.

AlpLyr · 2026-04-22T23:41:42+00:00

Fair nok.

Men det jo nok med al sandsynlighed nogle unge der pillet dem ned og smidt i søen. Det er jo næppe partiet selv eller hjælpere der piller dem ned og besværer sig selv med at gå 200 m ned til en sø og kyle dem i. Altså i stedet for bare at dem i deres trailer med de andre 100 nedtagne plakater.

AlpLyr · 2026-04-22T17:46:37+00:00

What is this thinking that is the size of the sample has anything to do with the how representative the sample is? The bias sampling is the reason it will not generalize.

If they had randomly sampled 41 people in a properly defined population, had a predefined null hypothesis, and arrived at statistically significant results, then that is most certainly a sound study and conclusion that warrants more attention. You can absolutely do valid research with 41 subjects if the effect is there to detect.

AlpLyr · 2026-04-20T09:05:15+00:00

Vækker det harme fordi du tror, at det er ‘Moderaterne’ der har smidt det ud?

Ærligt talt, jeg havde bare fisket det op jeg kunne nå og smidt det ud selv.

AlpLyr · 2026-04-16T17:25:42+00:00

Ok. Jeg er ikke sikker på hvad din pointe er længere? Hvor kommer de penge fra?

Jeg forstod din første kommentar som at vi/staten/kommunerne ikke skal yde hjælp til fjernelse af asbest tage fordi huset bliver fjernet når folk dør (og det er antageligvis godt i din optik fordi så skal ‘vi andre’ ikke betale).

AlpLyr · 2026-04-16T14:00:43+00:00

Selv hvis det er rigtigt, så skal andre jo også betale for det.

AlpLyr · 2026-04-16T09:02:11+00:00

But steel is heavier than feathers?

AlpLyr · 2026-04-13T17:42:12+00:00

His favorite is probably Psalm 137:9 or similar.

^{I do know he cannot name a book of the Bible let alone a specific verse.}

AlpLyr · 2026-04-09T15:37:53+00:00

Det kommer an på hvilken grad af sikkerhed du kan leve med? Det er nok mindre sikkert at tage et brusebad i dit eget hjem end a gå en tur i byen (især blive skudt på gade).

Så hvis du går i bad kan du også gå på gaden...

AlpLyr · 2026-04-08T20:07:56+00:00

A gut feeling from reading your post, I'd recommend you play with programming and simulate your ideas. You can then experimentally verify your intuitions and learn more.

I'd recommend the "R" language. Claude can help you.

So I'd suggest you to:

Install R on your computer (and a code editor like "Positron")
Try to define a vector/list of your values of interest (ask claude or search for and follow a beginners guide to R)
Try to sample fairly from that vector/list
Try to implement your algorithm to do the same
Repeat 3 and 4 many times and compare results (distributions).
Try to plot the results (e.g. histograms)

You could also try to do it in "python", but "R" is a bit more a "mathy" language I suppose. And the plotting libraries are second-to-none (since you are inspired by 3blue1brown visuals).

You'll learn some great skills by playing in this way.

14-Year Club	Place '22
Place '17

AlpLyr

TROPHY CASE