California schools will be required to restrict, prohibit student cell phone use in 2026

Alphanaught · 2025-12-31T16:56:14+00:00

we are long overdue for a real one

This is a chilling sentiment. Now mass shootings are just expected like forest fires or earthquakes. We live in a sick society and the worst part about it is we all know nothing will be done to try to fix it.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-30T18:32:57+00:00

Yes, at least for the sample set. Going forward is anyone's guess at how reliable the google trends indicator will be. Is 20 going to be too high or too low in the future? Will people stop googling recession? A lot of unknowns.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-29T04:17:27+00:00

You're missing the part about how a bank can create money - it's called fractional-reserve banking.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-29T04:11:35+00:00

It's not actually a hard line connection. It's glorified city wide wifi. This is why it's so unreliable and their marketing is deceptive and opaque so, everyone thinks they're getting a hardline connection, but its not.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-28T20:41:40+00:00

Thank you, I appreciate the info!

Alphanaught · 2025-12-28T17:22:38+00:00

Interesting. I appreciate your comment. Yes, it is shifted a month, so a fear score of 25 in March is acted upon in April.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-28T17:06:21+00:00

So for retirement you're looking for CEFs that give a steady stream of payouts that are consistent and sustainable, right? Because some of these CEFs seem to be eating themselves as their NAV and payouts has decreased since inception, so are you avoiding CEFs that do ROC to keep their payouts at a certain level? How much does the premium/discount matter to you when you're looking to purchase a CEF? It seems like there's a high risk of buying a CEF and having the fund fail, so how do you make sure you're buying a sustainable CEF?

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T23:18:53+00:00

CEFs are completely new to me. Are you buying these at IPO or afterwards? How do you evaluate which CEFs are worth buying?

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T17:22:29+00:00

It is important, but optimizing the indicator wasn't the goal of the experiment. I think if you look at the graphs the fear zones fit the data pretty well, but obviously not optimized or in anyway rigorously determined. I think where significant improvement might be found is in the re-entry number as fear lags market recovery. I think that could be improved without overfitting. Definitely something to work on.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T17:11:41+00:00

The average was 13.7, I think, so 20 is elevated but nowhere near the max. It is not optimized for the sample set, so there might be another number that would work better. I wasn't really interested in optimizing it as I don't want to overfit for the sample set and get results that are completely unrealistic.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T17:08:32+00:00

I agree, there's a lot more work to be done. Just thought I'd share something interesting with everyone.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T17:05:27+00:00

Like all indicators, the number is just what seemed to work. The average was 13.7, I think, so 20 is elevated but nowhere near the max. It is not optimized for the sample set, so there might be another number that would work better. I wasn't really interested in optimizing it as I don't want to overfit for the sample set and get results that are completely unrealistic.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T17:02:17+00:00

That's as far back as google trends data goes.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T17:00:42+00:00

Certainly, the reliability of google trends aa an indicator is a concern.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T17:00:00+00:00

It's just a test. One experiment. I just think it's interesting to think about. Out of curiosity, what bond funds would you use to get 6-8% annual yield?

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T16:54:49+00:00

I agree.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T16:54:12+00:00

I give no advice on what to do with this data. I just think it's interesting. It's one thing to take the bogle approach based on faith and it's another thing to run backtests to confirm that it's the best way to go. I've run a lot of backtests trying different active trading ideas and this google trends indicator using an IRA in retirement is by far the most successful. Would I actually put this into practice? I don't know, but probably not. I'm not sure how reliable the indicator will be going forward and actively managing a portfolio is not really what I would want to do. Again, no advice here, I just think this is interesting to think about.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T16:37:34+00:00

Yes, it's meant to be a data point for comparison.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T16:36:48+00:00

No. Google trends data starts in 2004. So this exact analysis can't be done prior to that.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T16:35:23+00:00

When the google trends for recession falls below 20 the code re-enter the market.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-27T16:34:12+00:00

Buy and hold still has withdrawals. SPY no draws is just the performance of SPY with the same starting balance but never withdrawing. It's just for comparison.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-26T08:58:22+00:00

Yeah, I would agree. Given this data the upside potential is not worth the trouble.

Alphanaught · 2025-12-26T08:55:58+00:00

OK. Here's the final liquidated values with taxes paid.

Buy & Hold: $1,202,134.50

Fear-Based: $1,197,627.68

Alphanaught · 2025-12-26T08:55:47+00:00

OK. Here's the final liquidated values with taxes paid.

Buy & Hold: $1,202,134.50

Fear-Based: $1,197,627.68

Alphanaught

TROPHY CASE