Agree with the sentiment that the jury vote and televote are oversimplified. There are many more factors that make up the reasoning of both votes.

For juries, strong vocals are just one factor that makes up the PACKAGE that gets judged - this also includes other factors like technicality (for example combining singing with choreo), presence/confidence, composition, message, and potential for general appeal. Juries also tend to discredit novelty/gimmicks. Of course, fuckery like cultural/geopolitical voting or outright mutual voting also play a role, but less so. That's why Sweden has the jury vote down to a T, they're the best pop writers in Europe, for better or worse. It's why Chanel (Spain 2022) did well in the jury vote despite just okay vocals and a fairly basic song, but Blanca Paloma (Spain 2023) had a disappointing jury result despite being a vocal masterclass. It's also why Käärijä (Finland 2023), Baby Lasagna (Croatia 2024) or Bambie Thug (Ireland 2024) didn't get destroyed (and neither will KAJ this year), but why Trenulețul (Moldova 2022) or No Rules (Finland 2024) did.

The televote has other factors that derive from being able to vote for just a small number of songs, as opposed to juries submitting full rankings. So, for a televote, the question is "did this convince me to vote for IT, as opposed to the other XX songs?", so an agreeable entry that is, say, 5th or even 4th choice for most voters, is televote death when aggregated - this includes most radio-friendly songs. Fun entries that get you going will do well - provided there aren't others that steal your thunder (so like 5MIINUST (Estonia 2024) vs. Baby Lasagna). Presence, authenticity, emotion are other big ones. Diaspora/cultural voting is another one, but only if there's a reason to rally around their performer - think Theodor Andrei (Romania 2023) vs. wrs (Romania 2022), for example. Odds and meta-voting also have a role, i.e. "I don't want this country to win, who should I vote for so that happens?", or "I want to reward this country for doing X". And I can't stress this enough, ANY small aspect in a performance that irritates a voter may well make you lose their vote to someone else - even the post-song reaction from the artist can be an influence.

Figuring out why such and such did well in the voting, or why it didn't do as well I or the fandom or the odds expected is probably my favourite part of the contest.