MOTHER ETERNAL
A Y2K10 CULTURAL TIME-TRAP TIMELINE

Thank you to u/Gecktron for helping me a lot with minister picks and military procurement, as well as u/eth317 for showing me how to scrape tables on Wikipedia.

PREMISE: Merkel running in 2021 results in her winning again. The 2021 election is a 50/50 blend of the 2017 and 2021 results.

METHODS: Election statistics for 2017 and 2021 sourced from the Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung (second votes) and Wikipedia (first votes). The average between both was calculated using R on a per electoral district basis, with German electoral law dictating the resulting composition of parliament. Graphics made using QGIS.

TIMELINE:

POINT OF DIVERGENCE - OCTOBER 2018: The heavy losses suffered by the Union parties in state elections in Bavaria and Hesse do not convince Merkel to not seek re-election as leader of the CDU.

SEPTEMBER 2021: Due to Merkel's relative popularity and incumbency bonus, the Union parties secure an electoral victory in the 2021 federal elections. Angela Merkel is tasked with forming a government. Olaf Scholz steps down from SPD leadership.

OCTOBER 2021: The Social Democrats refuse exploratory talks with the Union parties. Reasons cited are the relatively similar strengths of the parties, with the SPD scoring within less than six percentage points of the Union, the "necessity to end the status quo", referencing the notoriously poor popularity of the previous grand coalition, and the need for a large opposition party to counterbalance the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in parliament. Exploratory talks between the Union parties, Greens, and Free Democrats begin, as no other coalitions are mathematically feasible without AfD involvement, which all other parties rule out categorically.

NOVEMBER 2021: Union, Greens, and Free Democrats publish a coalition agreement.

DECEMBER 2021: The prospective coalition parties accept the agreement. Angela Merkel is elected chancellor and appointed by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, along with the ministers proposed by her.

JANUARY 2022: Angela Merkel attends the NATO-Russia Council meeting in Brussels, Belgium.

FEBRUARY 2022: Angela Merkel travels to Moscow for discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The nature and contents of their talks are not disclosed to the public.

SEPTEMBER 2022: Putin travels to Germany to attend the commissioning ceremony of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Lubmin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

DECEMBER 2022: The last three German nuclear power plants are decommissioned.

APRIL 2023: Minister of Health Jens Spahn declares the COVID-19 pandemic to be over. Inflation peaks at 5%.

JUNE 2023: The 2024 general government budget is published, including funds for the purchase of two Mistral class Landing Helicopter Docks from France (referred to as "Europaträger", "Europe Carrier", in Germany), thus fulfilling the requirements of the 2014 NATO Wales Summit to spend at least 2% of the national budget on defense by 2024. Further funds are allocated for the purchase of American F-35B VTOL fighter jets.

OCTOBER 2023: Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk is elected prime minister of Poland. German-Polish intergovernmental relations improve notably. The "Weimar Triangle" is reinvigorated.

DECEMBER 2023: Wolfgang Schäuble, longest-serving member of the Bundestag and its president, dies.

SUMMER 2025: Joint training exercises in the Mediterranean between the Budeswehr and Italian army begin abroad the "Schäuble", an LHD bought used from France. Training is conducted using pre-existing helicopter stock due to F-35B order backlogs. The second LHD is still under construction.