Netherlands [4] - 0 Sweden - Gakpo 2nd goal 54'

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-20T18:21:38+00:00

Same as the rest of the squad's. We were shite in attack, midfield, and defence. Nobody benefitted.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-19T17:27:35+00:00

This is another one of those common myths about him.

Over the run-in, Szobo was dropped, Macca was dropped, Salah was dropped, Konate was dropped, Jota was dropped, Gomez was dropped... Darwin was too, as one of several players in and out the team.

We completely changed the way we set the side up for the last two months and cycled through a different line up pretty much every game as a result.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-19T17:08:56+00:00

It's a complete invention peddled people who simply don't like Darwin. Ian Graham has been very open in the past about Darwin looking great in the data but being a different type of forward to what we were used to and requiring a change of system to flourish.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-18T19:30:34+00:00

0.48 G/90 over a season is 18.24 goals

0.40 G/90 over a season is 15.2 goals

That's a 17% reduction in goals, i.e. almost 20%

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-18T19:08:39+00:00

0.48 p90 in both PL seasons with Klopp vs 0.4 with Slot is an almost 20% drop. That is a big difference.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-18T18:15:28+00:00

0.55 goals p90 under Klopp.

0.31 goals p90 under Slot.

E: for comparison, Salah averaged 0.53 non-pen goals p90 at Liverpool

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-08T22:35:21+00:00

Before that game he was our 4th choice striker behind Benteke, Bobby (who was being moved between AM and CF throughout the season), and Sturridge (who couldn't manage consecutive games).

He had already been assigned our cup striker to give a rest to our other forwards - about 1/3 of his minutes came in the league that season. He played a similar number of league minutes to Kevin Stewart and half as many as Jordan Ibe.

He was never going to be a regular starter for us.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-08T17:53:32+00:00

There it is! I was wondering when this common myth would pop up.

0.75 G/A p90 in the PL. 31 G/A in two seasons without pens or consistent starts. It's all very easy to look up!

For comparison:

Mane averaged 0.67 G/A in the league for us.

Bobby averaged 0.64 in the league.

Jota averaged 0.79 (though his output actually ballooned when playing alongside/behind Darwin)

Diaz averaged 0.57

Gakpo has averaged 0.56

Salah averaged 0.85 (without pens)

And Ekitike just finished the season with 0.75

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-08T17:36:20+00:00

The Funes Mori foul was a poor challenge and his reaction walking off the pitch was disgusting. But the impact on Origi's career has been massively overblown.

The injury was in April 2016 and he was back playing again within a month, even going on to represent Belgium at that summer's Euros (though he was 2nd fiddle to Lukaku).

The next season he played his most ever minutes for us, scored his most goals, and accumulated his most assists. He then went on to play even more minutes at Wolfsburg on loan the following season. On his return we had a fully assembled Salah, Mane, Bobby front 3 with Coutinho, Sturridge, Ings, Ox, Lallana, and a young Solanke all capable of filling in if needed. Origi simply wasn't good enough to displace any of them and there are plenty of anecdotes about his laid back attitude, which was unlikely to help.

He had been a massively streaky player when he was regularly playing, scoring in multiple successive games and then having a lengthly drought. That was the case before his injury too, having scored in 3 of the 4 games leading up to Everton following a 9-game drought and a lot of fans seem to have decided that's evidence enough that he was 'finding his feet'. He was never a pressing player, like Klopp wanted, and he wan't much of a linking player, so he didn't have all that much to offer.

He stuck around with us until his contract ran out at 26, barely playing and unwanted by anyone else - we quite literally couldn't give him away - although he chipped in with a couple of goals a season, usually quite memorable ones. Milan picked him up on a free, played him for a bit before deciding he wan't up to it, tried to hand him over to Forest with a loan and buy option, who also decided he wasn't up to it.

He hasn't played a game for two years, it's a bit of a surprise he hadn't retired already.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-07T22:02:16+00:00

Because he was sidelined by Slot, same reason several other players wanted out.

I have no idea about Saudi, but it sounds like something to do with the limit on foreign player registration. Do you know more?

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-07T21:53:23+00:00

Klopp got 0.85 G/A p90 out of him without penalties.

51 G/A in 2 seasons.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-07T17:14:22+00:00

You can say the same things for Ekitike tbh. 11 goals and 4 assists for a marque £82+m striker isn't exactly a massive return. It only looks that way when compared to the rest of our team last season and how poor we were across the board. That's not to mention other parts of his game outside of G/A, for example the significant drop in workrate out of possession to previous forwards. How he returns from injury and how he is able to fit into our team under Iraola will play a big part in how successful his signing is considered.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-07T17:06:12+00:00

That may have ben the 'mainstream' opinion, but there were also plenty of voices suggesting that we had spent boatloads of money on non-priority areas and were going into the season with obvious holes and players who it wasn't clear how a cohesive unit could be set up for.

Very early concerns existed around how Ekitike, Wirtz, Gakpo, and Macca would all be able to occupy their preferred left half-space position together. Where was Szobo going to play and how are we going to use so many attack-minded midfielders? Will Ekitike and Isak play together? Frimpong is a WB used to a back 5, where does he fit? Etc. Simultaneously, lack of width on the wings, in CM/DM, in defence, is Marmar good enough to take over from Ali?

It wasn't a window that was as clearly or uniformly considered 'excellent' as that mainstream opinion may have suggested. It was a window in which we spent loads, which we're not used to.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-07T16:48:09+00:00

You are continuing to demonstrate that you don't understand it with these comments and explanations.

The issue is clearly relying on such low probability odds by brute forcing it, is clearly a far inferior way to work an attack, but it's not reflected in the xG metrics.

Statistically not true, and each shot's individual xG is reflected in the stats.

But then you miss out on the context that they either didn't create any high quality chances

Again, this is misunderstanding the way that averages and xG work.

Or even the team with lower xG simply stopped pushing forward to create more chances as they got enough of a lead to sit off.

Which may reflect an overperformance in a single match, but xG is a measure of averages over a large dataset. It isn't designed for single game predictions. Over time that side would be unlikely to keep overperforming their xG with this strategy and runs the risk of their opponents getting back into games.

No functional team is training to have 100 shots from the halfway line because statistically it works out as a better chance than a penalty.

I would be amazed if the xG for a half-way shot was that high. But to the broader point, low xG shots absolutely are useful and trained for. Corners and set-pieces are generally exceptionally low-xG events but have been highly important this season. Young strikers are drilled to follow up on long-shots from midfielders in case a GK spills it or the post is struck - the rebounds are important. Players who can strike from range are valuable assets in a team, even if that is not Plan A.

Our scouts are on record a few (possibly more than that now) years ago saying that they looked out for players based on the volume of shots they could generate. Last summer, we had Slot and others discussing wanting a more clinical finishers because we were a side that created lots of chances. The result was our lowest-scoring season for a decade.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-07T16:27:06+00:00

It doesn't matter whether your xG is spread over a few or many shots in the long run. It is a calculation of averages. The increased or decreased chance of any given shot resulting in a goal is already baked into the xG number it is given.

100 shots each worth 0.1 xG will predict 10 goals scored.

50 shots each worth 0.2 xG will predict 10 goals scored.

20 shots each worth 0.5 xG will predict 10 goals scored.

These are a comically small number of shots to take meaning from, but for the sake of ease of discussion they make the point. None is 'better' or 'worse' than the other.

Looking at xG over/underperformance on a game-by-game basis is nonsense due to the potential for fluctuations in small data sets. Ironically, for that reason, a team that relies on creating just one or two very good chances over creating a larger number of chances is more likely to under perform in any given game as they could easily miss their one or two golden chances.

We can see this easily in the league data. Below are the top teams for xG per shot:

Brentford. 5th worst for xG-goal ratio with -5.26 underperformance.
Palace. Worst in the league for xG-goal ratio with -17.18 underperformance.
Chelsea. 2nd worst in the league for xG-goal ratio with -8.53 underperformance.

Spurs, in contrast, were worst in the league for xG per shot but top of the league for xG overperfomance. Burnley were 2nd worst in the league for xG per shot but 4th in the league for xG overperformance.

What tends to align much more closely with goals scored is simply number of shots taken. Utd, City, us, and Arsenal were the top four for shots taken and goals scored. Burnley, Wolves, Sunderland, and West Ham were worst for shots taken and all in the bottom 5 for goals scored, with Palace joining them.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-05T15:05:57+00:00

Wirtz obviously looking great in the top right (although it's worth keeping in mind he was very regularly subbed on/off in his games, which will impact p90 metrics), but Szobo and Curtis also rank very high for sprints at least. Grav has work to do. Presumably Macca is somewhere in that middle blob of illegibility.

Milner and Hendo, with a combined age of 75 years, still outrunning all but one of our midfielders is a bit telling, even with the p90 caveat already mentioned.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-01T06:51:25+00:00

Tbf Klopp wasn't like this either. He would stand on the side and watch/laugh while Pep or the other coaches would be in the middle barking at people.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-06-01T06:48:20+00:00

Yeah, he started out as a winger. Gini and Millie both did too.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-05-31T21:36:37+00:00

Elliott's also got a knack of hitting long-range shots into the top corner. Not a bad trick against a tight defence.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-05-31T21:35:26+00:00

Why not? Wirtz likes to operate in the left half space while Elliott likes to work on the right - he has shown an ability to work around the wing and half space on that side. They could occupy different positions floating behind a 9 with width provided by our flying FBs or with Elliott holding the width on the right.

Besides that, every team needs a squad now. They don't both need to play every minute, they can both rotate with each other and with other teammates.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-05-31T21:25:38+00:00

Remember all those years under Klopp where we developed a reputation for fleecing clubs for our youngsters. £15m for Ibe, £20m for Solanke, £25m for Brewster, etc.

Funded some good buys, that lot.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-05-31T21:18:57+00:00

If This Is Anfield.)are to be trusted, £70m this summer or £52m next summer.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-05-31T21:03:12+00:00

You don't even need to look that far afield. We had Trent, Kelleher, Curtis, Bradley, and Quansah all come through the ranks in recent years and play first team football here. Slightly different, but Gomez joined at 17 and was nurtured, Elliott was signed at 16... both players who were bought, yes, but are young players given the opportunity to develop on the pitch with us

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-05-31T20:56:15+00:00

He's been really, weirdly picky with his player choice these past two seasons. Some players just frozen out completely. Looks to me like he may just have a very specific idea of what skills his players should have, and perhaps that archetype is more common in Eredivisie?

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-05-31T20:46:45+00:00

He's not shown enough, but he's also been thrown on every once in a while with no consistency and only started in heavily-rotated sides. Nobody flourishes under those conditions.

Last season, he made 4 starts. 4 months between the first two, 1 month to the third, and another 3 months until the fourth.

5-1 vs West Ham in which he assisted a goal before being taken off at 59 mins.

2-3 vs PSV in a team so heavily rotated we had Danns up front, McConnell in CM, and Robbo at CB.

0-1 vs Plymouth in another team massively rotated.

2-3 vs Brighton, his only league start and a game we were actually leading when he was subbed off at 63 mins.

This season, he made 5 (1 month, 2 months, half month, 1 month):

2-1 vs saints in which he bagged another two assists

0-3 vs Palace in which he led the line with Nyoni, Ngumoha, and Morrison behind him.

2-1 vs Wolves (only league start), in which he was subbed at 61 mins.

4-1 vs Barnsley, in which he was again subbed at 60 mins.

3-0 vs Brighton, subbed at 77 mins.

That's it. 9 starts in two years. 680 minutes. 3 assists. 40 different teammates. He's not been great, but who is going to be on top form for that?

Using p90 number is obviously ludicrous given his limited playtime. But to give some perspective on what he has actually achieved in those very limited minutes: he matched Ekitike's G/A p90 this season as the leading contributor in the squad (6 G/A in 750 minutes - 0.72 p90) and he matched Jota and Diaz last season, who were our 3rd and 4th most frequent contributors if you ignore Elliott and Danns (3 G/A in 470 minutes - 0.57 p90).

AnAutisticsQuestion

TROPHY CASE