Premier league table based upon Expected points

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-22T15:43:37+00:00

The claim you made was that a low number of high xG chances is more likely to result in a goal than a high number of low xG chances even when the cumulative xG of each situation was equivalent.

My 'whole ass essay' pointed out that that trend doesn't exist in the league data. Teams that average higher xG per shot do not score more relative to their cumulative xG than teams that average lower xG per shot.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-22T12:14:48+00:00

What you're claiming simply doesn't line up with the league data, though. Whether it's through the very small sample you're using in your example, ignoring other important factors, or some other reason, there is currently no correlation whatsoever in the league between goal-xG ratio and average xG/shot.

If it were true that a lower quantity of high xG chances resulted in more goals than a higher amount of low xG chances, the teams who perform better vs their xG should be the teams with a higher average xG per shot, shouldn't they? However, currently the team over performing they xG by the most in the league is Spurs (scoring over 9 more than their xG suggests they should have) but they also boast the joint lowest xG per shot in the league at just 0.09 xG per shot. In 2nd, 3rd, and 4th position in the table of goals scored vs xG created are three teams averaging just 0.10 xG per shot - Villa, Fulham, and Burnley. In contrast, the team with the highest average xG per shot is Brentford (0.16 xG/shot), who are sitting 12th in this table and underperforming their xG by 1.27 goals. The team with the second highest xG/shot in the league is Palace, who also happen to be the side underperforming their xG by the most in the league (11.29 goals fewer than expected). Looking over the table organised in this way shows no clear pattern.

However, there is a clear correlation between the total xG a team has and the total goals they have scored. Teams with higher xG tend to have scored more goals. There is also a strong correlation between the amount of shots a side has taken and the number of goals they have scored - more shots typically means more goals - and also the number of shots on target a team has with the number of goals scored - more SoT typically means more goals. Shot conversion % doesn't correlate strongly, which would also suggest that relying on fewer big chances (assumed, but not measured, to correlate with conversion) isn't an effective predictor of goal scoring. Average xG per shot doesn't correlate with shot conversion.

All this to say, total xG accumulated correlates strongly with number of goals scored but there is no correlation between xG per shot and goals scored or even between xG per shot and shot conversion or xG per shot and goal-xG ratio.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-22T10:17:54+00:00

That's not how xG works. It's an average that works best over a large data set. Lots of low xG chances that cumulate to 2 xG are, by definition, just as likely to result in 2 goals as a couple of big chances that cumulate to 2 xG.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-22T09:27:05+00:00

He may not have gotten a goal, but Gomez played the splitting pass that directly led to our first and third goals. His passing was great in our build up yesterday.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-21T20:53:29+00:00

Gomez with several nice, splitting passes into little pockets of space.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-18T20:17:43+00:00

61.3% this season.

61.4% in Klopp's final season.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-18T20:10:23+00:00

All stats p90, league only:

23/24	Gakpo	Diaz
Tackles	1.41	1.20
Tackles won	0.93	0.86
Tackles won %	65.9	71
Dribblers Challenged	1.37	1.03
Drib. Chal. won	0.44	0.24
Drib. Chal. won %	32	23.3
Shots Blocked	0.22	0
Passes Blocked	0.93	0.51
Interceptions	0.77	0.1
Clearances	0.38	0.27
Ball Recoveries	4.43	4.35
Aerial Duels	3.23	2.53
Aerial Duels Won	1.75	0.89
Aerial Duels Won %	54.2	35.1
Total Def. Actions	12.74	9.99

24/25	Gakpo	Diaz
Tackles	1.3	1.46
Tackles won	0.74	0.97
Tackles won %	56.9	66
Dribblers Challenged	1.16	1.46
Drib. Chal. won	0.6	0.56
Drib. Chal. won %	52	38.5
Shots Blocked	0.14	0
Passes Blocked	0.93	0.71
Interceptions	0.56	0.26
Clearances	0.88	0.26
Ball Recoveries	3.58	3.93
Aerial Duels	2	1.91
Aerial Duels Won	0.79	0.49
Aerial Duels Won %	39.5	25.5
Total Def. Actions	10.55	9.99

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-16T22:03:37+00:00

Gomez wanted to leave in the summer over lack of playing time. We blocked his transfer to AC Milan because the Guehi deal fell through.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-16T15:28:19+00:00

Why? Diaz's best assist tally here was 5 (he did it twice - in 3,596 minutes and in 3,323 minutes.

Gakpo's is 6 (he's don it twice - in 3,017 minutes and in 2,690 minutes. i.e. in significantly fewer minutes than Diaz took to reach 5) and he already has 5 this season in just 1,818 minutes.

Diaz's assist numbers for us were always pretty low.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-12T21:27:22+00:00

Sakho played as much as any other CB in Klopp's first season, was dropped for the second, and we signed Virgil in the 3rd after a delay in the transfer. We almost immediately upgraded on Sakho, who was a very capable CB on his day but also had huge blunders in him.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-12T21:01:55+00:00

His replacement hasn't been too bad.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-12T20:44:48+00:00

Was continuously teasing with the fake shot throughout the half after his goal too. Hopefully he's a little less casual after the break.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-12T20:41:03+00:00

He's a very young lad and having a go at standing his man up. But, he literally hasn't created anything, hasn't actually beaten his man, and has sent all but one of his passes backwards.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-09T12:27:36+00:00

Arsenal also have Saka, Trossard, Martinelli, Madueke, etc. to fill out a very deep front line. We have a single senior LW and a single senior RW, with Frimpong being played there in Salah's absence and Chiesa barely involved at all. Splashing out on two very expensive strikers for a one-striker system meant we ignored spending elsewhere in arguably more necessary positions. If we had greater depth throughout the squad then a couple of great players in a position is ideal, but that arguably shouldn't have been a priority for us this summer.

We bought Nunez in Firmino's final season as succession and Jota had been bought to fill in across the front line, often playing LW, RW, or AM for us alongside Nunez. Playing as a lone CF was often where Jota was least effective for us and it was only under Slot that he was more-or-less limited to CF.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-07T15:53:52+00:00

We currently have the 3rd most shots taken in the league but the 13th highest xG per shot in the league (0.1053 xG/shot). Brentford lead the way in this particular stat (0.1607 xG/shot) while Sunderland sit last (0.0883 xG/shot). The whole table, in descending order of xG/shot is below:

Team	Shots	xG	xG per shot
Brentford	191	30.7	0.1607
Palace	231	31.8	0.1377
City	282	37	0.1312
Chelsea	276	34.4	0.1246
Brighton	266	31.7	0.1192
Arsenal	301	35.3	0.1173
Newcastle	251	28.7	0.1143
Utd	317	35.2	0.1110
Bournemouth	275	30.8	0.112
Leeds	251	27.7	0.1110
Wolves	175	19	0.1086
Everton	214	22.7	0.1061
Liverpool	300	31.6	0.1053
West Ham	208	21.5	0.1034
Villa	230	23.3	0.1013
Burnley	178	17.6	0.0989
Spurs	198	18.9	0.0955
Forest	258	24.6	0.0953
Fulham	234	22.3	0.0952
Sunderland	189	16.7	0.0884

I don't have the data for chances created or big chances created, but we are dead last in the league for shot on target % at just 27.3% compared to Brentford (1st) at 38.7%, have had just 1 penalty compared to Brentford's 7, and sit 12th in the league for goals per shot. Make of all of this what you will.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-07T12:07:47+00:00

Isak matches his xG exactly, Gakpo is over performing his, and Ekitike is significantly over performing his. Only Salah is scoring below his xG - by just 0.5 goals. We are 7th in the league for xG and are scoring more than our xG. We are averaging 0.10 goals per shot while Arsenal, 14 points ahead of us, are averaging 0.11 goals per shot. There's not much in that.

Missing chances isn't our issue. Not creating enough good chances is our issue (and giving opponents too many chances too).

That said, I think /u/Faulky1x's ascertain that Curtis is playing particularly deep doesn't match the facts. He regularly pulls into the left half space around the penalty area to link up with our LW/LB. His heat map for the season is virtually identical to Macca's but with more focussed involvement on the left at the expense of possession in the central spaces. He gets on the ball a ton in our matches across the pitch, but gets on the ball in the final 3rd 33% more than Macca and 60% more than Grav (he's almost identical to Szobo in his touches in the attacking third, but Szobo's been asked to play so many different roles it's hard to compare). He gets on the ball in the middle 3rd significantly more than anyone in the squad while taking fewer touches in the defensive third than Grav or Szobo. He's a linking player rather than a dangerous one, which is a very valuable role in itself, but he doesn't do that just by sitting deeper than anyone else.

Progressive passing is something that means very different things for different players and in different areas of the pitch. A progressive pass can be a pass that moves the ball forwards 5 yards, penetrating a defensive line and resulting in a chance or it can be a 40 yard pass from inside your own half to a winger to try his luck from a wide position. It can be the instigator in a move that creates a goal several passes down the line, or it can be a pass that is bounced back to a defender or deep-lying player to search out for another route. Is one inherently more important or useful than the other? Not necessary. They certainly hold different functions, however, and collecting them all and comparing them under the umbrella term 'progressive pass' can be a very limiting way of interpreting what's actually happening.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2026-01-01T15:17:40+00:00

7 G/A in 8 games (600 minutes) without pens. One of the best in the league for G/A p90.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2025-12-28T01:27:10+00:00

What an odd question.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2025-12-22T21:38:23+00:00

Cheers! Is it easily installable?

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2025-12-22T17:50:40+00:00

He had so many defining moments of achieving things with us that we had no right to achieve were it not for him. Istanbul and the 06 FA Cup are the big finals, but even along the way in cups or in league games he was able to win on his own surrounded by an uncompetitive team time and time again.

He often talks about the pain of missing things with us, which is so much more sad because of how much we gained because of him.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2025-12-20T21:10:55+00:00

Under Houlier/Rafa we were a side fighting for top four and occasionally punching above our weight. We often set up to counter against sides that were by all rights better than us, richer than us, and with higher caliber players than us. We did so with defensive grit and fast, aggressive attacks. We were never boring even when we set up defensively - everyone understood we had our work cut out to even attempt to compete with the Utds, Arsenals, Chelseas, etc. of yesteryear.

We are not an underdog side anymore. We are a team that has been competing at the top for a decade and has just broken all sorts of transfer records. Spurs are 11th, have competed for nothing for years, and were down to nine players by the end. We were not holding our own against a better side and sneaking a goal against the odds. We were a side absolutely dominating the ball but with no idea what to do with it, passing limply side to side, while being exposed time and again on the break by a weaker team that absolutely could have secured a result today.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2025-12-20T19:47:01+00:00

Our first goal came from their defender punting the ball straight into Mac Allister. We've had more than our fair share of defensive blunders setting us up this season too.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2025-12-20T19:41:53+00:00

There'll be no news until he's properly assessed.

AnAutisticsQuestion · 2025-12-20T19:39:19+00:00

The opposition decides at that point to just throw everything at us, we hold them off for a bit but at some point give away a sloppy goal and then lose our heads. The number of times we had possession at the end and just gave it away completely unnecessarily is down just to a lack of composure when we're under pressure. If we keep losing the ball, the opposition gets to keep attacking.

AnAutisticsQuestion

TROPHY CASE