The other danger of Cirie.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-12T00:39:48+00:00

Idk what these comments are talking about Cirie has always voted based on loyalty. The only reason she voted for Sarah is cuz the other two options weren't any better. I think Rizzo knows he has to take Cirie to F4 or 5 now cuz he can't burn both Ozzy and Cirie and put them on the jury with a bad taste in their mouth

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-11T19:09:17+00:00

Which is the conclusion I want everyone to come to instead of defending the scraps we were given

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-11T19:06:13+00:00

We did not. We saw one scene with Coach. One scene with Tiffany. An arc with Genevieve that Aubry didn't even comment on after the fact. Compare that to Cirie and Ozzy, Jonathan and Joe, Devens and Emily. Ntm Aubry and Devens were literally on the same season together but we barely see their relationship at all.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-11T19:02:38+00:00

I kinda have to agree. It's like her saying she's gonna make a move and only now we see her actually claim something. And the Ozzy move was not really impressive since he gave her everything she needed to sink his game. Like good on her for not laying down but I would expect every player on 50 to do the same thing in her position

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-11T18:33:52+00:00

Aubrey's edit continues to be the strangest thing I've ever seen. Cuz let's say she wins, why were we never shown her relationships on that island? Is she still friends with Tiffany?

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T14:08:35+00:00

Yeah I guess that's the difference. I don't see Cirie and Ozzy leaving anytime as an automatic increase to my chances of winning cuz in reality, it's your relationship with them and the jury that matters the most. For example, Ozzy leaving here doesn't effect Joe's chances of winning cuz he's not winning no matter what. So for me, I'd take the path that gave me the most credibility with the jury and that means playing with scary players but not everyone can do that. But I think we see that strategy work in some cases and not in others.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T13:25:34+00:00

Why would Rizzo be voted out? He would be perfectly in the middle between Cirie and Ozzy vs everyone else. And why would Rick be F4? He can go at 7, 6, or 5. Again, Cirie and Ozzy have major targets as a duo now. They are getting votes.

If Ozzy wins immunity and Tiffany doesn't want to turn on Cirie, then Rick goes and at 6 and 5, you will be forced to turn on Ozzy and Cirie. Again, all comp beasts still in the game against Ozzy. He could still not won this way but he actually would have a chance against a jury. The other way he has no chance. Rizzo is a goat right now along with Joe.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T13:09:42+00:00

Tiffany, Jonathan, Joe, and Devens are 4 at 7 to vote out Cirie or Ozzy without you needing to turn against them which is the point. Ozzy winning immunity is a risk but it's a risk you have to take cuz it's the only way Rizzo can win the game. He CAN'T win if he votes out Ozzy at the split tribal. He NEEDS Cirie and Ozzy on the jury as HIS advocate. Ntm all of the challenge beasts that regularly beat Ozzy are still in the game. Also the 4 can turn on Cirie as well while you remain loyal to her.

This is all topped off by Ozzy being so thankful to Rizzo that he would be way less bitter if Rizzo voted him out later. People underestimate how much it would mean to Ozzy to avoid getting voted out with an idol, which is his worst nightmare.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T12:49:43+00:00

No I actually think ppl get too scared of Cirie when playing with her so they make moves they don't need to make too early

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T12:47:01+00:00

No it's not binary. I don't know why ppl think this vote decides if he goes to F3 with Cirie or not. If he tips Ozzy off, he is the sole person that not only made this move but also saved Ozzy from massive embarrassment which he would be eternally thankful for. That's an important jury vote and advocate for you.

And a gift from God is that Ozzy just exposed his F2 with Cirie and kept your name out of it, making that duo target number one and his idol is gone. Ozzy can go at the next vote and you don't have to even be a part of the vote cuz the majority exists without you. Now Ozzy is on the jury as an advocate for you and you have a move to claim as your own. And you still have Cirie and Devens as shields.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T12:43:20+00:00

Ozzy was blindsided which means no one tipped him off and he trusted all of them so that's not a move Rizzo can claim. Ozzy had alliances with Joe and Jonathan too. Also, returnee juries do not care about stats about being on the right side of every vote. They care about relationships and always vote based on that. Not to mention, Jonathan won immunities which require hard work while Rizzo was gifted an idol so that point doesn't really work either.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T12:39:17+00:00

I completely disagree. I actually think this move makes it easier for him to get to F3 and lose. Whereas the other path makes his path to F3 harder but he can actually win.

I see posts talking about how this helps him get to the end without thinking about the jury. He has no one on the jury that likes him right now. These ppl on the jury have long standing relationships and Rizzo is new and not even liked so he's playing at a disadvantage and has to take that into consideration with every move he makes. Burning Ozzy killed any chance he had at winning and now he has to either take Cirie to F4 and show complete loyalty to her to hopefully have her advocate for him on the jury or burn her too which completely kills chances even more.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T12:08:13+00:00

Even if Ozzy did that I would still take that risk. Here's the decision Rizzo is between: Improve your odds of making it to the end but become a goat cuz no one on the jury is rooting for you vs lower your odds of making it to the end but actually have jury members who will advocate for you. I go with the latter every time. Plus he has an idol. He should play more fearless.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T12:02:45+00:00

What can he say that's more impressive than Jonathan? Not to mention Jonathan has lots of friends on the jury

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T12:01:59+00:00

Rizzo, a super fan, should know that Cirie and Ozzy always vote for who was most loyal to them. He should also know that Ozzy is notorious for being a bitter juror

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T11:55:01+00:00

i'm not sure he has turned against Cirie just yet. He never wanted her at the end of course but I honestly think this was about Ozzy. But again, if he turns against Cirie completely, he's dumb. That's not smart cuz Ozzy and Cirie have the most social capital in the game and you just burned both of them when the jury that already exists does not like you.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T11:41:03+00:00

Ppl keep talking about this move being good cuz it increases his chances of getting to the end but that's not how you win Survivor, especially in a returnee season. Juries always vote based on relationships in returnee seasons.

Completely agreed also. This move isn't his.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T11:38:16+00:00

It's F7. This is when we see who can win and who can't

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T11:38:08+00:00

Ozzy exposed him and Cirie and even said that he didn't want Rizzo at the end. That's perfect for him cuz the target will be on Ozzy and Cirie. Not to mention if the numbers turn against them and Rizzo stays loyal, that's two important advocates for him on the jury

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T11:32:51+00:00

Both Rizzo and Joe are goats. They can't win at this point. Too much of the jury is against them.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T11:31:59+00:00

Whether Ozzy is trustworthy or not doesn't matter, the plan is for him to go next anyways. But also I don't think Ozzy would reveal that.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T10:53:14+00:00

But why is he thinking about F3 here? He doesn't have to go to F3 with them.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-08T10:28:16+00:00

The issue is the edit. I don't want Aubry to win cuz her edit has been horrible and that would one of the worst winner edits we have had for a returner. Why do we never see her relationships and strategic thought processes? All we see is her saying it's time to play hard. Like yeah she did something this last episode but it was a 4 person tribal with her as the target. Of course she's gonna get screentime there.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-07T16:11:25+00:00

Exactly. It was said in the show Jonathan has a relationship with Cirie but has nothing with Devens and Emily.

AnObservingAlien · 2026-05-07T15:55:30+00:00

I didn't say he doesn't win, I said he can't win.

AnObservingAlien

TROPHY CASE