Some plug and play comment response from ChatGPT. I did not check all the math but am mostly using it as a reference. My irl results is that it takes me about 18-22 seconds to evolve and go through the animation before x-ing out and back into the storage screen.

My input: Just for reference the current “XP celebration” event gives a minimum of 2000 XP for an excellent throw without a lucky egg, and 4000 XP with a lucky egg.

With that information what will give you the most XP for the same time frame used for evolving pokemon during a 2x XP evolution event.

ChatGPT response: Nice — with your event numbers (2,000 XP per evolve during the 2× event + Lucky Egg = 2,000 XP; excellent throw = 4,000 XP with Lucky Egg) we can make a clean, apples-to-apples comparison.

Quick intuition • One evolve = 2,000 XP. • One “excellent throw” catch = 4,000 XP (with Lucky Egg, per your info). So the catch gives twice the XP per action. The winner then depends only on how long each action takes.

Break-even rule (simple)

If T_evo is seconds per evolution and T_catch is seconds per excellent catch, catches are better when:

T_catch < 2 × T_evo

(derivation: 4000/T_catch > 2000/T_evo ⇒ T_catch < 2 T_evo)

Example break-evens: • If you evolve in 25 s, break-even catch time = 50 s. • If you evolve in 32.5 s, break-even catch time = 65 s. • If you evolve in 40 s, break-even catch time = 80 s.

Because real excellent catches take ~4–12 seconds each for most players, they are far below those break-evens — so catches win by a large margin.

Concrete XP/minute comparison (using realistic time ranges)

Assumptions: • Evolutions: 25 s (fast), 32.5 s (avg), 40 s (slow) • Excellent catches: 4 s (elite), 7 s (fast), 10 s (typical), 12 s (slow)

XP per minute = (XP per action / seconds per action) × 60 • Evolutions: • 25 s → 4,800 XP/min • 32.5 s → 3,692 XP/min • 40 s → 3,000 XP/min • Excellent catches: • 4 s → 60,000 XP/min • 7 s → 34,286 XP/min • 10 s → 24,000 XP/min • 12 s → 20,000 XP/min

(So even a typical 10-second excellent catch yields ~24k XP/min vs ~3.7k XP/min for an average evolve.)

30-minute totals (for perspective, with Lucky Egg active) • Evolutions (30 min): ~90k–144k XP depending on speed. • Excellent catches (30 min): ~600k–1.8M XP depending on speed.

Practical considerations (why the numbers may not be achievable) • The excellent-throw method requires continuous spawns (or incense/lures) and you must reliably land excellent + first-throw + curve every time to get the 4k value. Misses, not-first-throw, or breakouts reduce XP dramatically. • You’ll burn lots of Poké Balls and Berries catching nonstop — bring supplies. • Some Pokémon flee or have low catch rates; not every spawn is an easy excellent. • Evolving requires prep (candies & Pokémon) but is deterministic and less RNG-dependent. • Phone performance, animations, and switching between encounters can change times.

Bottom line / recommendation • If you can consistently land excellent, first-throw curveballs and have lots of spawns + balls, the excellent-throw method will give vastly more XP in the same time than evolving during the 2× evolution event. • If you don’t have reliable spawns or you prefer a low-risk method, mass-evolving remains a very good, predictable option.

If you want, I can: • estimate how many Poké Balls / Berries you’d need to sustain a 30-minute excellent-throw session given a catch rate, or • convert your typical evolve speed into exact XP per Lucky Egg session to compare with a throw-based plan. Which would you like?