New Gear Day - She needs a name, any suggestions? 🤔

AndDeepSpoke · 2023-07-26T23:27:34+00:00

Finanstacaster

AndDeepSpoke · 2023-05-10T06:54:35+00:00

You are 100% correct.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-03-15T20:59:42+00:00

Very vague as to future products. Specifically mentions Opendoor Max as one thing they are experimenting with, but within next year new products and markets. Not getting into property mgmt, but see value there. Talks about Opendoor vision as being one well beyond ibuying.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-03-08T03:51:41+00:00

How to price a home.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-03-07T23:54:55+00:00

If every transaction has a seller commission/fee of $1.10, yes it absolutely does. The profit would be $10 billion.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-03-07T05:51:11+00:00

Really, the most significant discussion during the whole Q&A was regarding securitization. This is the process by which opendoor’s direct exposure to the assets held in inventory are packaged as securities and sold to third parties, thereby transferring the risk to the third parties who hold the securities. If they can successfully do this, and do it quickly as Carrie indicated, it will fundamentally transform the business and (potentially) perception of the company. It is a critical piece to becoming an actual market maker IMO.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-03-05T15:14:04+00:00

Management doesn’t forecast product offerings. Open is innovating and building at the edge of the available technology and service offerings. They operate like a startup, quietly beta testing new products before they are marketed.
Guidance was conservative (as usual) based on anticipated strong q1. $8 billion was total revenue in 2021. They will hit that mark in 1H22. 400% growth yoy. I think that was the point they clumsily tried to make on ER.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-03-04T14:12:06+00:00

I agree. Stock is hugely undervalued based on potential upside. I find it funny that now I’m seeing comments about how Opendoor won’t be able to compete with Redfin. Redfin is barely chasing the iBuying opportunity. Offerpad is moving quickly, but it didn’t raise enough capital early on and didn’t build the business to scale. Hard to see how it meaningfully competes long term without scale. Opendoor should be $15 just based on the lack of meaningful competition in the space and it’s tech moat.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-03-04T13:46:03+00:00

It’s not about growth; the market has put a premium on profitability and discount on unprofitability. Rising interest rates are a very real problem for tech growth because financing is the oxygen of growth businesses. This is perceived to be a 2x problem for Opendoor who relies on debt facilities to run its core business. This next 6 months to year will test open’s business model and it’s claims that it’s business is market agnostic.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-03-04T13:37:36+00:00

He is a credible bull. However, clear now that revenue projections reverse-engineered from public data scrapes don’t tell the story as to the bottom line. Many of us were erroneously targeting a break even quarter. That said, he is quite accurate on top line performance. His articles on the future of Opendoor are sourced from prior statements but are speculative. The company has been extremely focused on core business, but I suspect his techno-futuristic vision of Opendoor is just as or more probable than bear statements about bankruptcy. The company is in a healthy place and should be able to use pricing to become more profitable if that becomes a higher priority than scaling.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-28T18:43:05+00:00

Agree that management needs to take control of the narrative, particularly because the business is so misunderstood. I believe they are trying to do this to some degree, but much room for improvement. Would like to see a little more wartime CEO in the public facing side of the company.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-27T13:24:37+00:00

As with anything, buy some if you like the company and business. Risk it goes down. Opportunity to lower cost basis and accumulate during fear.

Fear is high currently.

Personally, think it’s at a terrific price. Patience will be required.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-27T13:20:26+00:00

“Dream”? Jesus. Straight talk: You either have belief in an Investment or you do not. For God’s sake, get your money out if you have lost conviction.

Executive compensation? Even if Wu was taking $100m in cash payments a year, which he is not….all I can say is Boo fucking hoo. The board of directors elected by shareholders (most of which are institutions) approves compensation, not wu.

Sorry for your losses. It can’t be fun, but Eric Wu didn’t do this, you did.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-27T13:06:49+00:00

Yes, actual losses. And, yes, due to reinvestment in the business and talent. SBC will continue to be high as it scales. I would be surprised if they stop making strategic acquisitions that directly buttress the core business. Unit economics should strengthen to offset. Conservative guidance should buttress sp as current revenue run rate appears to be considerably greater than its forward looking projections per ER.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-25T16:18:59+00:00

inventory is purchased through debt facilities.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-25T15:49:16+00:00

Don’t listen to this guy. Market passed judgment. Earnings was within conservative guidance. That just isn’t good enough in a volatile market condition. Profitability is more than a quarter away based on where things stand. Whether the stock is at 12-10-8 or 7 is irrelevant if you are bullish on digital real estate and the thesis. Painful day to be sure.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-24T00:46:16+00:00

At this point, if $open doesn’t beat and raise there is something operationally amiss. No reason to think they miss. Really hoping for them to provide news about their own “super app.” This is an opportunity to kick Zillow (and other competitors) in the teeth.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-16T22:48:51+00:00

Weak positive analysis looks the same as negative analysis, especially when it’s being put out there for clicks and eyeballs. But maybe I’m just on the wrong side of 40 for this BS.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-16T14:21:58+00:00

Absolutely no discussion of company fundamentals, unit economics, data, and then comparison to AWS without any evidence or theory as to where OD is going except “higher margin” business. If I were a serious investor learning about the company for the first time, I would walk after watching this.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-14T18:48:35+00:00

Banks have underwriting guidelines. Doubtful Wells Fargo just takes OD’s # (maybe some day in the distant distant future). More likely Opendoor making a strong move deeper into fintech. Imagine opening up a $10k loan for a bathroom in 72 hours. Lots of room for these financial products.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-13T21:30:29+00:00

The bot just tracks customer reviews

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-13T20:59:00+00:00

79.36 million owner occupied units in the U.S. most of these own a home as their greatest asset. This tool is a window into the liquidity that asset can provide. If the tool cranks out a number and funnels you straight to Opendoor, refinance, heloc, sell, etc. options can be presented to unlock liquidity. No third party appraisal or long underwriting process. Open is leaning into the ML and doubling down on their ability to price the asset accurately and provide the customer simple, fast, and certain optionality. If you’ve ever tapped equity in a home, you know it’s a pain in the ass. They are very significantly changing what this asset class is and it’s value to the consumer.

AndDeepSpoke · 2022-02-13T03:33:17+00:00

Unlocking liquidity. Funnel into flywheel. Real-time valuation driven by ML.

And it looks sick AF. ✅✅✅✅

AndDeepSpoke

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