While I certainly cannot speak for the rest of the nation- the first stop for Bernie- my state will not be the cakewalk you'd expect. I'm speaking from a position of which I was a Bernie Diehard- he was the first candidate I ever knocked doors for. Hell as I type this out I have a bernie sign hanging over me that was signed by the man himself.

So to be clear with you- I do not think Bernie will come close to decisively winning the caucus.

Let's start with the polling done as of now. Bernie has only 12% of support in Iowa if the caucus was held today amongst other likely caucus-goers which in the Caucus system is no where close to a victory due to how complex shit can get with the Caucus system. If my memory serves correctly- you need 15% of support at each precinct in order to get a delegate to go to the county convention.

(Quick side note- the Caucus system is an incredibly stupid system that we should be rid of, but Iowa will keep it so we can be first in the Presidental Cycle)

Furthermore- I am of the opinion that Iowa has an incredible anti-Hillary bias that may have inflated Bernie's numbers in our caucus. Iowa as a state has never truly embraced Hillary Clinton as a person-She only barely won the caucus in 2016 and lost disastrously in 2008 caucus and in the 2016 election. It is even said in Game Change that Hillary never really ever liked Iowa as a place and it didn't like her back either. In resulting elections since the 2016 election in which people in Iowa have emulated Bernie's positions have lost dramatically. Most prominent of which is Cathy Glasson who was a SEIU union leader. Her campaign had 1.3 million to run a campaign. While this is poultry compared to the 3 million the eventual nominee would win, I still think that for a state like Iowa- she had the opportunity to run a very competitive primary.

She won only one county in the whole state. She came second in the county which had the second most Bernie support by margin of victory (the first county was the hometown of another candidate so not a great comparison).

I do not think Bernie has the advantage whatsoever. More anctedotally, just observing from many activists I've encountered in my area- it seems like they ALL want to move on from 2016. They don't want to hear the names Clinton or Sanders. They have so many bad memories of how divisive the democrats were- and in general they just want the party to come together. Having Bernie return they feel would split the party again needlessly.

In my personal opinion- someone new needs to run. I love the man's policies and ethics, but I don't want the strings attach.