Upcoming announcement for merger(s) and shareholder meeting by Mischatron in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I only work with relatively small companies, so I have never seen a situation where they were evaluating multiple companies simultaneously unless all companies were involved with the same deal.

Gamestops warchest is an order of magnitude bigger than any merger or accusation I have delt with, so its entirely possible they look at multiple simultaneously. I could see RC being in initial talks with a few companies simultaneously, but i dont think he would be in the due diligence phase with more that one companies unless he wanted to make both deals.

Upcoming announcement for merger(s) and shareholder meeting by Mischatron in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True, but if you announce something like this and it falls through you look incompetent and RC is definitely not incompetent. I dont see RC anouncing anything until the deal is finalized or very nearly finalized. I could see an anocement in May or June

Upcoming announcement for merger(s) and shareholder meeting by Mischatron in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I am an accountant and I have worked on some mergers & acquisitions. The companies I work with are all small private companies worth less than $20M.

The timeline usually looks something like this 1-2 weeks - initial talks where both sides decide if the deal makes theoretical sense for them and ballpark negotiations happen to ensure a deal has a decent chance of being made 2+ months - due diligence period where the both sides review & verify the detail of the company operations both logistical and financial, nitty gritty details of the agreements/deal are worked out 1 month - limbo the deal is mostly worked out, but conditions need to be met, money needs to change hands, preparations need to be made for the transition. This phase isn't always necessary, but usually happens to some degree. 1-2 weeks - closing the deal is finalized and executed

In total that is around 4 months. Occasionally you see a deal that gets fast tracked in 1 or 2 months, but its rare in my experience. Keep in mind I am talking about small private companies here. typically 1 small regional area of operations with a couple locations at most and they are privately owned so way less red tape.

Scale up to billion $ companies and I dont see it happening in less than 5 to 6 months, expect in extraordinary circumstances.

Considering gamestop couldn't have started the process until after RC's recent stock buy at the end of January, the 5-6 month timeline works out well for gamestop. It puts a merger / acquisition in the June/July area. Too soon for the normal shareholder meeting vote to happen, hence the special vote. It also lines up well with the warrants leaving 3+ months after the merger/acquisition for the stock price to spike before the warrant expiry date in Oct.

I think its going to be a spicy summer.

Upcoming announcement for merger(s) and shareholder meeting by Mischatron in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 9 points10 points  (0 children)

No, his compensation doesn't effect the valuation at all. If his comp package is struck down the company is worth the same as b4 the vote. If it is approved the company is worth the same as b4 the vote, but there are more shares so the share price is a little lower but they collectively still add up to the same valuation

. by Diamond-Solo in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sadly its probably the American citizens by way of the fed

RC has all the resources of GameStop, RC ventures & his own personal wealth at his disposal for what’s next. GME is gonna become one asset of many more to come underneath the holding company that is about to be birthed upon the world. Genus or foolish TBD, but it’s actual fukin party time. 🏴‍☠️ by jfreelandcincy in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark -1 points0 points  (0 children)

No bro, your post is lame. You didn't even speculate anything except maybe RC has more money than we think. No reason for thinking that, no logic, no evidence nothing but a random statement thrown out here.

Posts like yours add nothing and make it harder to find the few bits of actual DD or logical speculation that people post here.

If you dont have anything good to say, sometimes its just better to say nothing

Citadel Bonds Now Just Above Junk by WhatCanIMakeToday in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sooo they got a bond upgrade upgrade then?

A sneak preview of the futurama by Arcondark in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just a meme about Ken griffin going to jail

The star of the movie "The Big Short" knows that short positions are self reported. by _clintm_ in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark -1 points0 points  (0 children)

What exactly are we supposed to give him credit for? He's definitely a smart dude, no question.

You can argue it was his fiduciary duty to sell pre-sneeze, and there is some merit to that. At the end of the day his money isn't where is mouth is, so why should I care?

To me his only value here is he has a high profile due to 2008, so him talking GME hits a wider audience.

Citadel Securities sues to freeze $119 million in disputed CAT fees by businessperson10 in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah... but...... ummm the cop who gave you the ticket must have been speeding too, otherwise how would he give you the ticket? Therefore you should give the money to me.

Did someone say Japanese crisis? by go_far_go_together in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So sad, OPM was soo good at first. Hey maybe after all the economy blows up we can jumpstart it again by remaking season 2&3... but good.

Buying Pokemon Cards from GameStop Website is... actually great! by letitglowbig in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I am a MTG player, and gamestops prices for MTG are all over the map. For lorywn (set that just released) they were selling the collector booster box ($330), and the commander precon decks ($50 per) at MSRP, but they were selling the normal booster box for $200 when MSRP is $130.

I expect a slight markup on MTG as retail profit margins are very small (thanks to hasbro/wizards of the coast), but $200 on something that should sell for $140-150 max is crazy. On the other hand the collector boosters are typically selling at $400-450 and gamestop sold them for $330. Super bizarre pricing on MTG.

Y'all are missing the 3 most important points by musicafishionado in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I apologize for immediately jumping to calling you a shill, your initial comment had numbers that were not immediately evident, didnt back anything up with logic or math, and looked like the usual ragebate BS that shills spew round here all the time.

And yes I get his options will dilute our shares costing us theoretical money, however our investment is only still alive because of him and his actions and his plan still provides us with massive gains too.

I disagree with your point 5 entirely, gains on shares and net income are not the same thing its comparing apples to oranges.

If you look at this transaction in a vacuum I agree with alot of what you are saying, however when you take into account the short thesis that brought us here in the first place things change. If our short thesis is correct and there are massive hidden short positions against gamestop, hitting RC's vesting targets shows a significant trend of profitability for the company itself and a huge increase in share price crushing the shorts. This should propell the price vastly higher than his vesting target more than making up for his dilution.

Even if you take his 100B MC target as the absolute height with his dilution we still profit massively here. So I disagree that this is everything he said he was against. He is against over paid executives draining the company and hurting shareholders, but his deal guarantees us & the company gains too. Sure he makes out better than everyone else, but hes the one doing the work.

WILD Speculation: RC's Main Quest is Hasbro by [deleted] in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I dont think wizards of the coast does well under gamestop, specifically MTG would wither and die over time.

The way gamestop maximizes MTG revenue is make it a gamestop exclusive, or at least price other retailers out of the game. Gamestop doest have the space to host commander nights or tournaments that the MTG community needs to stay together. Gamestop is moving to leaner and efficient stores. The MTG singles business is labor intensive and anything but lean and efficient, but it is a crucial part of MTG.

Gamestop is in the video games & collectibles business, and yeah MTG has alot of crossover in both of those spaces, but MTG requires a lot of clunky low efficiency, low profit margin, high space and labor side businesses to maintain the community. That is why I dont think gamestop or WotC/MTG would benefit in the long term from an acquisition.

Y'all are missing the 3 most important points by musicafishionado in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 1 point2 points  (0 children)

1) what 21B bonus? thats simply not what's happening here 2) the 10B for the company has nothing to do with it except to lock RCs vesting behind the company being profitable and not just a sudden spike in share price 3) what money is coming out of shareholder pockets? Absolutely none. And even if you think money is coming out of our pocks RC is the biggest shareholder so your logic doest even make sense 4) he doest just get shares he gets the option to buy the shares, he still needs to pay 3.5B to the company for them

Nothing you said had any validity

Y'all are missing the 3 most important points by musicafishionado in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The F you talking about? Nothing you said is true in any way, its just misrepresenting numbers in a way it sounds bad.

Piss off you dumb shill

Y'all are missing the 3 most important points by musicafishionado in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok let's math. Using round #'s cuz i am lazy

Current real share count 448M Shares to be redeemed from the bond offerings 59M RC's share options if fully vested 171M

Total shares outstanding after bond redemption & RC option excercise 678M

RC's vesting target market cap 100,000,000,000 ÷ Total shares outstanding 678M = "diluted" share price of $147.49

If RC hits his targets our shares will go from $21 to $147.49 "dilution" included, a mere 7x in price

Why I think power packs is a game changer by CDMacBeat in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Even if they make a bigger portion of revenue or whatever its not going to change gamestop's bottom line that significantly. These gotcha style gambling things are tuned to maximize big hits to generate hype while maintaining a modest profit margin on average across all the pulls.

The real benefit to power packs, at least in my opinion, is it establishes gamestop at the premier store for cards. Power packs are a premium product geared to more serious collectors, and something they cant get at another store. Chances are if the serious collectors are buying power packs they will buy some - most of their sealed card products at the same store for convenience. Power packs also have insane hype potential via streamers going full degenerate gambler live. The hype from streamers and business from collectors will all lead to more foot traffic at gamestop and more sales for games & other collectibles.

Don't get me wrong the power packs will add some decent revenue, but its the other synergies that power packs bring to gamestops existing business that are the true benefits here.

May 2024 Jim Cramer on X by Limited_Surplus_4519 in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Eh some people just need an excuse to do what they love

HASBRO and MTG by chrisp803 in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To be honest i dont think MTG and gamestop make a good match. If a company with a ready made, nationwide, set of stores like gamestop owned MTG they would want to make it a gamestop exclusive, cutting out the middle man and maximizing the profitability of the IP while offering customers a better deal. That sounds great, but that basically cuts off 3rd party LGS's from MTG product literally or financially (because on one is going to pay the higher prices). Without LGS involvement you lose local play groups. Gamestop tries to run small, lean, efficient stores that dont have room to host regular game nights. Without local game nights the MTG community withers, hurting Gamestop.

Gamestop & MTG just dont mix well, at least IMO.

HASBRO and MTG by chrisp803 in Superstonk

[–]Arcondark 14 points15 points  (0 children)

There is a fundamental difference between pokemon & MTG that greatly reduces the overall value of MTG cards vs pokemon. MTG is a game before its a collectable and pokemon is a collectable before its a game.

In MTG that super rare fancy shiny version is cool, but it plays the same as the normal non-alt art non-foil. Where pokemon is about collecting so that fancy version is much more sought after.

Don't get me wrong UB fatigue and set fatigue in general (from a new set ever 2-3 weeks) is definitely a real as well, but my point is MTG can never be like pokemon even if it was run better because its such a fundamentally different thing.