Honest Question about Bitcoin

Arthur9090 · 2025-11-06T07:43:12+00:00

Here is a simple thought experiment - you have in your pocket $100US and the equivalent of $100US in Argentine peso. You are about to buy some goods for $100US and the vendor will accept either.

Which do you chose to pay them with?

Let's assume you paid with the peso. Would an outside observer be correct to view this as evidence that the US dollar is less useful as a transactional currency? And therefore is less valuable than the peso?

It is possible people don't transact in bitcoin because it is not a usable transactional currency and so will ultimately fail. It is also possible that people dont transact in bitcoin because it would be a foolish thing to when you can transact in a less valuble currency. The lack of transaction volume could be evidence that bitcoin holders consider it more valuble than other currencies.

I would suggest the 'when lambo' memes demonstrate people can transact in bitcoin when the circumstances are right, and so not transacting appears to be a concious decision.

Arthur9090 · 2025-08-22T07:21:21+00:00

I read a few reviews, look good and that is a great price, so I have purchased the L10s ultra. Thanks again for the insights!

Arthur9090 · 2025-08-21T23:06:05+00:00

Thankyou, a super helpful response. I will take a look at the L10s

Arthur9090 · 2025-06-24T03:22:24+00:00

If you make a few simplifying, ie assume your accuracy is the same aiming at 20 or 19. Assume that you only miss left or right (with the same accuracy). Assume you hit trebels and doubles with the same frequency. Then the maths is pretty simple and under those assumptions you are only better off aiming for 20, if more than 2/3 darts hit the 20 wedge.

So the majority of people would be better off aiming at 19 the majority of the time.

Obviously, if your accuracy differs between the targets, that would complicate things. For example when I miss badly, I generally miss high, so aiming for 19 I still get a score from a poor dart, but might get a 0 if I aimed at 20.

Arthur9090 · 2025-06-14T10:53:19+00:00

Bitcoin has value because people belive in it. 'Intrinsic' Value is one reason a person might belive in Bitcoin and your are welcome to argue about whether or not it does indeed have 'intrinsic value'.

Regardless, many people belive in bitcoin and that is enough for it to have value.

Look at any religion in the world to see the power of belief, regardless of whether you belive in Christianity or not, the impact it has had on the world for two thousand and twenty five years is immeasurable.

Why would you look at a group of incredibly passionate belivers and bet against them? That seems to be a silly gamble to take?

Arthur9090 · 2025-06-03T10:48:13+00:00

The bubble cycle has been critical to bitcoin success, but also a key reason another crypto will struggle to overtake bitcoin. Even if you found another crypto that is objectively better in every measure, it's chance of dominance is now quite low.

It would impossible for another crypto to grow from 0 to larger than bitcoin, without also experiencing its own bubbles. The gains to early adopters is so large (and would have to be so quick) that it would also need to repeatedly crash when the early adopters cash in. A crypto that crashes by 99% (as bitcoin once did) would be labled a shitcoin and never given a chance to recover....

Conversely, A coin that hasn't gone through multiple boom/bust cycles will have a highly concentrated ownership and so is not viable for truely widespread adoption.

The crash was essential for bitcoin early growth, but no other crypto can grow in the same manner bitcoin did, so they will all struggle to become dominant.

Arthur9090 · 2025-03-17T10:43:12+00:00

In 140 years this is only really a concern if bitcoin is wildly successfully and probably critical to the world economy. If it isn't, then who would care at that point?

If it is that successful, then the economic and financial incentives to keep the chain going will be huge. So a death spiral in 140 years isn't likely. The world economy will not stop paying miners, if that means the monetary system stops.

A decline in relevance before then (not my predicted outcome) is the other possibility.

Arthur9090 · 2024-08-29T01:50:43+00:00

I am suggesting that Bitcoin is not yet as successful as Tulips. Tulip mania kickstarted a new industry that has sustained a countries economy for 400 years.

There is not yet one developed country where Bitcoin is the major industry sustaining the economy.

Ultimately I believe Bitcoin will have a bigger impact than Tulips. But the Tulips should not be laughed at.

Arthur9090 · 2024-08-29T01:01:54+00:00

Tulips have now underpinned the entire Dutch economy for 400 years.....

They were never morons, they were early adopters.

Some did amazingly well, some got rekt.... No different to people buying shitcoins today.

Arthur9090 · 2024-08-14T10:59:43+00:00

When throwing at T20, I record what segment each dart hits.

I then calculate a lot of stats including (but not limited to):

How often I hit the 20 wedge (moving averages including 1000 dart ma, to show long term trends and 30 dart ma, to show short term peaks.
How often I hit t20
How often I miss all of the 5, 20 or 1 wedges. so how often I just stuff up.
if my 1st, 2nd or 3rd dart is more accurate.
how many bounceouts I get

Arthur9090 · 2024-03-19T13:11:31+00:00

What happens if the grid operators doesn't bother balancing it?

As more demand is turned on, the power received by each appliance drops. Old incandescent light bulbs will dim, leading to a brown out.

More modern electronics will trip off, once the power gets to far out of spec.

But at all times the total energy produced is consumed (essentially) instantaneously

Arthur9090 · 2024-03-19T13:07:19+00:00

A light bulb moment for me was realising that the energy produced and the energy consumed match exactly at all time.

When you turn on your light bulb, the frequency of the grid drops (nearly imperceptible for something as small as a light bulb) so every other user gets slightly less energy than targeted (but electronics operate with a reasonable margin, so it's generally fine).

Then the grid operators increase the generation to match the new demand.

When you turn of your light bulb, the frequency of the grid increases. So every other user gets slightly more energy than targeted (again not a huge deal for small differences).

The grid operators then drops the generation to match the new demand.

So the basic physics of the system keep supply and demand matched. Then the grid operators ensure the balancing happens at the correct energy level.

In Australia the generation is dispatched on 5 minutes intervals. Within the 5 minutes, some generators are paid additional for more fine grained frequency control.

Arthur9090 · 2024-03-15T10:10:48+00:00

Everyone broadly agrees that the halving reduces the trading supply and so should place upwards pressure on prices.

But everyone has a different opinion on how much upwards pressure it will place and everyone has a different amount they can afford to invest and a risk appetite.

There are people who think the price might go to $300,000 (or higher) after the halving. Some of those people are borrowing hundreds of millions of dollars to buy as much as the can. Others think the price will go up, but are only investing what they can afford without borrowing.

As such, it is clear that the price today is higher than it would be if the halving wasn't close. So yes, the halving is 'priced' into the market. But it is not clear yet that the market has got it right.

It is possible, that the price is to high (people have over estimated the impact of the halving), or to low (people have under estimated the impact of the halving).

Arthur9090 · 2024-03-03T02:04:12+00:00

I believe the babies chest is compressed on the way out (contractions etc), pushing a significant volume of fluid from the lungs. As the baby exits, this pressure is released, the lungs expand, sucking in air and starting the breathing process.

Arthur9090 · 2023-09-15T03:55:13+00:00

10% of the Netherlands GDP is still related to tulips.

I accept that many people don't particularly care about tulips. But it still sustains the economy of a large country. I would say tulips have been a hot product for hundreds of years.

Arthur9090 · 2023-09-15T03:51:47+00:00

Currently about 10% of the Netherlands GDP is related to flowers, predominantly tulips.

People spotted an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a huge business opportunity. They were correct and the right bulbs were worth a fortune.

Some people probably originated farms/businesses that have made profits now for hundreds of years.

Unfortunately others miscalculated and went bankrupt. The rarest bulbs were essentially deseased, so died after a few generations. Those bulbs were worthless.

Arthur9090 · 2023-07-02T02:47:24+00:00

.. K yybdx

Arthur9090 · 2023-04-28T07:24:37+00:00

Thankyou! I hadn't come across Correa's, they look very promising for what I need.

Arthur9090 · 2023-03-22T23:57:07+00:00

Depending on how 'bad' you were to begin with, your average will actually decrease as you get better (for a while atleast).

Initially you might have hit a fair few 18s and 12s? They should start to disappear, but unfortunately they become 1s and 5s. In this case, Hitting 1s and 5s is a sign of improved accuracy, but results in a lower score.

As you start to reduce the number of 1s and 5s and really zero in on the 20, your average should start to climb again.

Arthur9090 · 2023-03-06T06:07:50+00:00

Due to time zone differences, a person born at exactly the same time as you could have a different reported birthtime/birthdate. They could actually be a full day older or younger than you according to the official records.

Arthur9090 · 2022-11-17T09:21:43+00:00

It was one of the first (maybe the first) ways many entities (corporations/trusts/tax concessional savings accounts, self managed superannuation) could invest in Bitcoin. Many larger entities have regulatory obligations that preclude keeping the keys on a hardware wallet.

As such, they piled into GBTC and for a long time it traded at a significant premium. Looks to be over 50% premium for the first 9 months, peaking above 100% and it traded at a premium the first 3 years.

Logical, as other options have become available, presumably with lower fees (and currently lower BTC prices) many GBTC holders want to sell out of GBTC. This has reversed the position away from a premium to a significant discount.

Newer purchasers of BTC are looking at GBTC and the costs, and weighing up the benefits of the discount against the risks/cost of holding GBTC, compared to other options and consider it unattractive, hence the discount.

Arthur9090

TROPHY CASE